FC Arlanda2Enkopings SK0

HT 1–0Sun 27 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges6–186%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Arlanda are three points clear of Enköping and won 7-1 at Enavallen in April, but Enköping have won three of their last four and Arlanda are missing the suspended Mark Gorgos.

The home side is the likeliest single winner, though 1.8 asks for more than their record justifies. Two quoted prices offer a little: under 2.5 goals at 2.4 and both teams not to score before half-time at 1.29.

Context

The 7-1 at Enavallen on 24 April 2026 is the only meeting between these clubs this season and the widest margin either side has been involved in. It frames this fixture because the same opponent now travels to FC Arlanda's ground, and because Enköpings SK have responded since, taking seven points from their last three league games. That recent run is the counterweight. The April scoreline came from an earlier version of both teams, so it should not be read as a forecast of a repeat.
- FC Arlanda won 7-1 away to Enköpings SK at Enavallen on 24 April 2026
- Samuel Dawid Rydz and Anton Charbachi each scored twice for FC Arlanda
- Sixten Gustafsson scored Enköpings SK's only goal in front of 185 spectators
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 18:14 · Europe/BucharestMatch report: Enköpings SK 1-7 FC Arlanda, 24 April 2026www.transfermarkt.us · 24 Apr 2026
Hadi Noori converted two penalties in Enköpings SK's 2-2 draw with IF Karlstad on 19 September 2026, which is the clearest available sign of who takes their spot-kicks. Set-piece duties matter in a fixture where clear chances may be scarce for the visiting side, because a penalty is one route to goal that does not depend on open-play control. The limitation is that a single match establishes very little about a hierarchy, so his role from twelve yards could change with the players available.
- Hadi Noori scored twice from the penalty spot for Enköpings SK in a 2-2 draw with IF Karlstad on 19 September 2026
- His goals came in the 16th and 71st minutes, both from penalties
- H. Noori started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 18:14 · Europe/Bucharest
FC Arlanda's most recent home league game, a 4-2 win over Hammarby TFF on 21 September 2026, was played at Midgårdsvallen, and the club's recent home fixtures use that ground. The setting matters for reading the game: the April meeting was staged at Enköpings SK's Enavallen, so this fixture flips which side travels and puts the game on Arlanda's own pitch. The limitation is that the evidence places Arlanda's recent home league games at Midgårdsvallen without confirming the ground for this specific kick-off.
- FC Arlanda beat Hammarby TFF 4-2 at Midgårdsvallen on 21 September 2026 in round 23 of Ettan Norra
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 18:14 · Europe/Bucharest
Arlanda scored five times before the interval in that 23 August 2026 home win and none after it, the clearest example in their recent record of a fast start in front of their own crowd. It is one match, not a settled pattern. The wider point for this fixture is that the visitors cannot count on a quiet opening: Arlanda also led Hammarby Talang 3-0 at the interval on 21 September 2026 on the way to a 4-2 win.
- FC Arlanda beat FBK Karlstad 5-1 at home on 23 August 2026, leading 5-1 at half-time and drawing the second half 0-0
- FC Arlanda led Hammarby Talang 3-0 at half-time and won 4-2 at home on 21 September 2026
- FC Arlanda's overall window covers 14 competitive matches from 13 June to 21 September 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double Chance First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Arlanda or Draw

1.20fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 83.3%

−3.3ppshort

Arlanda start home games strongly and concede very little before the break, making them the most likely half-time leader. Half-time stalemates are common in these teams' recent games and Arlanda's early defensive record is strong.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Arlanda or Draw

1.25fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 80%

−4.0ppshort

Arlanda's strong home record and repeated wins over this opponent, including a 7-1 away win in April, favour the home side. Enköping's habit of drawing and trading goals in recent weeks, plus Arlanda's four home draws this season, keeps a share of the points live.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 82%

−8.0ppshort

Both teams score before half-time regularly enough that a goalless first half is the minority outcome.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FC Arlanda

1.80fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 55.6%

−5.6ppshort

Arlanda's strong home record and repeated wins over this opponent, including a 7-1 away win in April, favour the home side.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.80
The read
Arlanda's strong home record and repeated wins over this opponent, including a 7-1 away win in April, favour the home side.
- Arlanda are 4th on 42 points with a home league record of 6 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses (20 scored, 11 conceded).
- Enköping are 7th on 39 points and have lost 5 of 11 away league games (18 scored, 17 conceded).
- Arlanda won the April meeting 7-1 at Enköping and also won 3-1 there in October 2025.
- Arlanda have won 4 of their last 6 league matches, Enköping 3 of 6 with 2 draws.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC ArlandaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal margins are small and mixed for both teams, which favours an even final period.
- Arlanda's home second halves average 1.43 goals combined.
- Enköping drew the second half 1-1 at Assyriska and lost it 1-2 in their 2-2 draw with IF Karlstad.
- Arlanda's second-half margins in their last six were 1-2, 2-0, 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Arlanda's strong home record and repeated wins over this opponent, including a 7-1 away win in April, favour the home side. Enköping's habit of drawing and trading goals in recent weeks, plus Arlanda's four home draws this season, keeps a share of the points live.
- Arlanda are 4th on 42 points with a home league record of 6 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses (20 scored, 11 conceded).
- Enköping are 7th on 39 points and have lost 5 of 11 away league games (18 scored, 17 conceded).
- Enköping have drawn two of their last six league games, 2-2 with IF Karlstad and 0-0 at Umeå.
- Arlanda's home league record contains 4 draws from 12 matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Arlanda or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Arlanda start home games strongly and concede very little before the break, making them the most likely half-time leader. Half-time stalemates are common in these teams' recent games and Arlanda's early defensive record is strong.
- Arlanda average 1.14 first-half goals at home and concede 0.29.
- Enköping's away split shows 0.63 first-half goals for and 0.63 against.
- Arlanda were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
- Enköping's away matches average 1.25 first-half goals combined.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFC Arlanda or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals6 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score at a healthy rate and the recent meetings between them have been consistently high-scoring.
- Arlanda's home matches in the window average 2.86 goals (1.86 scored, 1.0 conceded).
- Enköping's 23 league games have produced 75 goals (37 scored, 38 conceded).
- All five recent head-to-head meetings produced at least three goals, including 7-1 and 4-2.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Neither defence is reliable enough to expect a shutout, and both attacks have scored in most recent games.
- Arlanda scored in 12 of 14 and conceded in 9 of 14 available matches; Enköping scored in 11 of 15 and conceded in 12 of 15.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Arlanda's last 6 and 4 of Enköping's last 6 league games.
- Enköping have kept only 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's home scoring rate and Enköping's away concession rate both point to the hosts scoring at least twice.
- Arlanda average 1.86 goals per home match in the window (13 goals in 7 games).
- They scored 4, 5 and 3 in three of their recent matches.
- Enköping concede 2.0 goals per away match in the window split (10 in 8 games).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonFC Arlanda over 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's home defence is the strongest part of their season and limits the visitors to at most one goal more often than not.
- Enköping's away average in the window is 1.38 goals per match.
- They were held to 0 in two of their last six matches (0-3 and 0-0).
- Arlanda have conceded just 11 goals in 12 home league games this season.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonEnkopings SK under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Enköping's recent scoring record makes it more likely than not that Arlanda concede at least once.
- Enköping scored in 11 of 15 available matches and in 4 of their last 6.
- Arlanda conceded in 9 of 14 available matches and in 4 of their last 6.
- Enköping have scored two or more in four of their last six league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostEnkopings SK to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's home scoring rate makes a clean sheet for the visitors unlikely.
- Arlanda scored in 6 of 7 home matches in the window and 12 of 14 overall.
- Arlanda put 4, 5 and 3 past opponents in recent home games.
- Enköping concede 1.25 goals per away match in the window.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Arlanda to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Enköping's regular scoring makes a clean-sheet Arlanda win much less likely than any other home outcome.
- Enköping scored in 11 of 15 available matches and in 4 of their last 6.
- Arlanda have kept only 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches in the window.
- Arlanda's last six league results include 4-2, 3-2 and 1-2 scorelines.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams score before half-time regularly enough that a goalless first half is the minority outcome.
- Arlanda's home first halves combine for 1.43 goals; Enköping's away first halves combine for 1.25.
- Arlanda's last six matches produced first-half goals in 4 of 6.
- Enköping scored three first-half goals at Sollentuna and one in each of their last two home games.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
The hosts' very low first-half concession rate makes one team going into the break without a goal the likely outcome.
- Arlanda kept a first-half clean sheet in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- Arlanda's home first-half concession rate is 0.29 goals per match.
- Only 3 of the last 15 combined matches for these teams saw both sides score before half-time by form.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A total around 1.4 second-half goals sits just below the line, making the under the slightly better-supported side.
- Arlanda's home second halves average 1.43 goals combined.
- Three of Arlanda's last six second halves produced one goal or fewer.
- Enköping's away matches average 1.38 second-half goals combined.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

FC Arlanda: 4/4 recent winner projections matched

4 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring FC Arlanda matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for FC Arlanda4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jun·Svenska Cupen