Ettan - NorraFull time

Predictions graded

FBK Karlstad2Enkopings SK0

HT 0–0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Aug 2026, 00:09 · Europe/Bucharest

The market heavily favours FBK Karlstad, but the model sees a much closer contest.

Avoid the short-priced home win, double chance, and over 2.5 goals markets, as they offer negative expected value. The only near-fair bet is both teams to score, but even that has minimal edge.

Context

FBK Karlstad home record: 3W 2D 3L, goals 8:14.
- Last home match: 0-2 loss to Assyriska FF.
- H2H: Karlstad won 3 of last 4, all at home.
Enkopings SK away record: 3W 0D 4L, goals 12:11.
- Recent away wins: 2-0 at Piteå, 3-0 at Järfälla.
- Lost only 1-2 at IF Karlstad in last away match.
2026-04-18: Enköping 2-1 FBK Karlstad.
- 2026-02-07: FBK Karlstad 2-1 Enköping.
- 2024-11-23: FBK Karlstad 4-2 Enköping.
- 2024-11-16: Enköping 4-1 FBK Karlstad.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

FBK Karlstad

1.83fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 54.6%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 40% estimate is below the implied 55%, indicating no value on the home win despite H2H dominance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FBK Karlstad or Draw

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

−15.0ppshort

The predictor's 65% estimate is well below the implied 80%, indicating the double chance is overpriced.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' home/away splits and H2H history point to high-scoring encounters, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, but the price leaves little margin.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, but the odds are far too low to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FBK Karlstad's home advantage and superior H2H record give them a slight edge, but their poor home goal difference tempers confidence.
- FBK Karlstad home record: 3W 2D 3L, goals 8:14 in 8 matches
- Enkopings SK away record: 3W 0D 4L, goals 12:11 in 7 matches
- H2H last 4: FBK Karlstad won 3, Enkopings SK won 1 (all home wins)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFBK KarlstadEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FBK Karlstad's home form and H2H dominance suggest they are unlikely to lose, making double chance a solid option.
- FBK Karlstad home record: 3W 2D 3L
- Enkopings SK away record: 3W 0D 4L
- H2H: FBK Karlstad unbeaten in 3 of last 4 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFBK Karlstad or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first half records, making a draw at half time a plausible outcome.
- FBK Karlstad leading at half time in 40% of matches, trailing in 20%
- Enkopings SK leading at half time in 33%, trailing in 40%
- H2H: first half results mixed (2 draws, 1 home lead, 1 away lead)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a FBK Karlstad win is a low-probability but possible scenario given home advantage.
- FBK Karlstad has drawn at half time in 40% of matches
- FBK Karlstad has won 3 of 8 home matches
- Enkopings SK has lost 4 of 7 away matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / FBK KarlstadEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits and H2H history point to high-scoring encounters, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- FBK Karlstad home matches average 2.75 total goals (8 scored, 14 conceded in 8)
- Enkopings SK away matches average 3.29 total goals (12 scored, 11 conceded in 7)
- H2H last 4: all matches had 3+ goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- FBK Karlstad scored in 6 of 8 home matches
- Enkopings SK scored in 6 of 7 away matches
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 4 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first half goals probable.
- FBK Karlstad first half goals: 0.7 per match overall, 0.5 conceded
- Enkopings SK first half goals: 0.5 per match overall, 0.9 conceded
- H2H: first half goals in 3 of last 4 meetings
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring averages suggest over 1.5 goals is possible, but confidence is low due to limited data.
- FBK Karlstad second half goals: 0.8 per match (1.5 total - 0.7 first half)
- Enkopings SK second half goals: 1.0 per match (1.5 total - 0.5 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.8 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, this is a speculative pick based on league norms.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- League average corners typically around 9-10 per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 55% leaves no cushion vs our 40% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

FBK Karlstad has been moderately reliable on Over 2.5 goals

FBK Karlstad has fulfilled 2 of 4 Over 2.5 predictions, a 50% success rate. The average estimated probability was 61.3%, so 2.5 fulfilments were expected, indicating performance slightly below expectation. The current prediction of 55% is below the historical range of 60-65%, suggesting lower confidence than in past matches.

Recent evidence for FBK Karlstad4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra