St Louis City3Toronto1

HT 1–0Sun 20 Sept 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–191%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 17–10On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 8–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 18:36 · Europe/Bucharest

St.

Louis City are likely to win or draw, but the odds offer no value on the match winner or goal markets. The only betting edge is St. Louis to lead at half-time at 2.05 (model 55% vs implied 49%).

Context

St Louis City sit 5th in the Western Conference with 41 points from 25 matches.
Their recent form includes a 4-2 home win over Minnesota United on September 13 and a 3-1 away win at Vancouver Whitecaps on September 6. This run shows they are scoring regularly, with at least two goals in four of those five matches. Toronto have conceded 46 goals this season, so St Louis City's attack could find chances.
- St Louis City beat Minnesota United 4-2 at home on September 13.
- They won 3-1 at Vancouver Whitecaps on September 6.
- They drew 2-2 at Portland Timbers on September 10.
St. Louis City have a U.S. Open Cup semifinal away to Colorado Rapids on Wednesday, September 16, three days before this match.
The short turnaround from a knockout match can affect recovery and selection. St. Louis may rotate or manage minutes for players involved in that semifinal, which could alter their lineup and intensity against Toronto.
- St. Louis announced an away U.S. Open Cup semifinal against Colorado Rapids on Wednesday, September 16 at 8:30 p.m. CT.
- The winner advances to the U.S. Open Cup final on October 21.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:34 · Europe/BucharestSt. Louis CITY SC — Open Cup semifinal previewwww.stlcitysc.com · 14 Sep 2026
Toronto are 12th in the Eastern Conference with 29 points.
Their away record is poor, with only two wins and three draws from eleven games. They lost 3-0 at Orlando City on September 12 and have failed to score in three of their last five away matches. St Louis City have a strong home record with seven wins from twelve, so Toronto face a difficult task.
- Toronto lost 3-0 at Orlando City on September 12.
- They have won only 2 of 11 away matches this season.
- They have conceded 18 goals in those away games.
Toronto midfielder J. Osorio is recovering from a knee injury and has returned to training, but he was left out of Canada's September squad to continue recovery.
Osorio's status for Saturday is unresolved. If he is unavailable or limited, Toronto's central midfield selection changes, and his absence would remove a regular starter from the lineup.
- Waking The Red reported that Osorio suffered a knee injury in training last month and has returned to training.
- Canada Soccer's September 15 squad announcement omitted Osorio from the 26-player selection.
- Canada coach Jesse Marsch said Osorio could have been called in but was left with Toronto to finish recovering.
- J. Osorio started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:34 · Europe/BucharestWaking The Red — Osorio recovery updatewakingthered.com · 15 Sep 2026Canada Soccer — September-October squad announcementnews.canadasoccer.com · 15 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

St Louis City

1.65fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

St Louis City's strong home form and Toronto's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, but the odds already reflect that and offer no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

St. Louis average 2.2 goals per match and Toronto concede 1.9 per match, but the odds imply a 70% chance of Over 2.5, which is higher than our 60% estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in most recent matches, but the odds imply a 67% chance of both scoring, which is higher than our 58% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's strong home form and Toronto's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, reinforced by recent momentum.
- St Louis City home record: 7W-3D-2L, 25 goals for, 16 against in 12 home matches
- Toronto away record: 2W-3D-6L, 9 goals for, 18 against in 11 away matches
- St Louis City last 5 form: WDWDW (unbeaten), Toronto last 5: LWDDW
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSt Louis CityEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto rarely wins away, while St Louis City are very hard to beat at home, making the double chance highly likely.
- St Louis City home unbeaten rate: 10/12 (83%)
- Toronto away win rate: 2/11 (18%)
- St Louis City last 5 home matches: 4W-1D
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSt Louis City or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's dominant first-half record and Toronto's frequent early deficits make the hosts likely to lead at the break.
- St Louis City lead at half-time in 73% of matches
- Toronto trail at half-time in 47% of matches
- St Louis City average 1.3 first-half goals vs Toronto's 0.6
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSt Louis CityEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's tendency to lead at half-time and win matches supports the HT/FT double, but the probability is moderate due to draw risk.
- St Louis City lead at half-time in 73% of matches
- St Louis City win 73% of matches overall (11/15 recent)
- Toronto lose 47% of matches overall (7/15 recent)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonSt Louis City/St Louis CityEstimated chance35%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's attacking output at home combined with Toronto's defensive frailty points to a match with at least three goals.
- St Louis City average 2.2 goals per match overall, 2.1 at home
- Toronto concede 1.9 goals per match overall, 1.6 away
- St Louis City home matches average 3.4 total goals (25+16 in 12)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records, and Toronto's leaky defense increases the chance of both finding the net.
- St Louis City have scored in 14 of 15 recent matches
- Toronto have scored in 11 of 15 recent matches
- Toronto have conceded in 13 of 15 recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's strong first-half scoring and Toronto's tendency to trail early could produce multiple first-half goals, but Toronto's low first-half output tempers confidence.
- St Louis City average 1.3 first-half goals, Toronto average 0.6
- St Louis City lead at half-time in 73% of matches, Toronto trail in 47%
- St Louis City first-half goals conceded average 0.3
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring averages suggest a decent chance of over 1.5 goals, though variance is high.
- St Louis City average 0.9 second-half goals (2.2 total - 1.3 first half)
- Toronto average 0.8 second-half goals (1.4 total - 0.6 first half)
- Combined second-half average: 1.7 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average is near the line, making over 9.5 a coin-flip.
- St Louis City average 4.5 corners, Toronto average 4.1
- St Louis City home matches average 5.3 corners (64 in 12)
- Toronto away matches average 4.2 corners (46 in 11)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages are close to the line, with St Louis City's home attacking edge offset by Toronto's lower away output.
- St Louis City average 4.6 shots on target, Toronto average 4.4
- St Louis City home matches average 5.3 shots on target (64 in 12)
- Toronto away matches average 4.0 shots on target (44 in 11)
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's higher card count at home and Toronto's away discipline suggest a moderate chance of over 3.5 total cards.
- St Louis City average 2.5 yellow cards, Toronto average 1.7
- St Louis City home matches average 2.8 yellow cards (34 in 12)
- Toronto away matches average 1.8 yellow cards (20 in 11)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 61% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

St Louis City has been highly reliable when projected to win

St Louis City has fulfilled 4 of 4 recent win predictions. The average estimated probability was 43.3%, yet all four matches resulted in wins, exceeding the expected 1.7 fulfilled predictions. The current prediction of 55% is above the historical range of 40-48%, suggesting stronger confidence than past projections.

Recent evidence for St Louis City4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer