Portland Timbers2St Louis City2

HT 1–1Thu 10 Sept 2026, 02:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 16–10On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 9–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 05:40 · Europe/Bucharest

St Louis City's unbeaten run and Portland's loss of top scorer Kevin Kelsy make the away win at 3.00 a strong value bet (42% estimated vs 33% implied).

Avoid over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, as the odds overprice Portland's attacking output.

Context

Portland Timbers attacker K. Kelsy led the team's 2026 MLS scoring with nine goals and four assists in 20 matches.
His confirmed transfer to Rangers removes Portland's leading scorer and primary penalty-box presence. The forward group must absorb his minutes and finishing output, leaving the home side without its most productive attacking reference for this match.
- Portland confirmed Kelsy's transfer to Rangers FC.
- The club said Kelsy led Portland's 2026 MLS scoring with nine goals and four assists in 20 matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 05:38 · Europe/BucharestPortland Timbers: Kelsy transfer announcementwww.timbers.com · 3 Sep 2026
St Louis City are 6th in the Western Conference with 34 points from 22 matches.
Their last five league results are DWDWD, including a 3-1 away win at San Jose Earthquakes on 2026-08-16 and a 2-1 home win over Houston Dynamo on 2026-08-23. This run shows they can pick up points consistently, though three of those five were draws. Portland have only two wins in their last five MLS games, so St Louis arrive with better recent league form.
- St Louis City's last five MLS results: DWDWD.
- They beat San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 away on 2026-08-16.
- They beat Houston Dynamo 2-1 at home on 2026-08-23.
St. Louis City are scheduled to play Vancouver at BC Place on September 5, four days before this match.
The short turnaround and additional west-coast travel reduce recovery and training time before facing Portland. This scheduling strain could affect St. Louis' energy levels and preparation, though the exact impact on performance remains uncertain.
- St. Louis are scheduled to play Vancouver at BC Place on September 5.
- The club's 2026 schedule identifies September 5-12 as an away-away-home three-match stretch.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 05:38 · Europe/BucharestSt. Louis CITY SC: Vancouver match previewwww.stlcitysc.com · 4 Sep 2026St. Louis CITY SC: 2026 schedulewww.stlcitysc.com · 2 Dec 2025
Portland Timbers are 11th in the Western Conference with 28 points.
At home they have scored 24 goals in 11 matches, an average of 2.18 per game, and won six times. St Louis City have conceded 16 goals in 11 away games, so Portland's home attack may find chances. However, St Louis have kept three clean sheets in their last five away matches, so this is not a guaranteed high-scoring game.
- Portland Timbers home record: 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 24 goals scored in 11 matches.
- St Louis City away record: 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses, 16 goals conceded in 11 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Portland's home games average 3.8 total goals and St Louis away games average 2.5, but the loss of Kelsy and St Louis's strong first-half defense temper the over.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 9 of 11 home/away matches, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, but the odds heavily favor over 0.5, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's stronger recent form and solid away resilience give them a slight edge over an inconsistent Portland side, though Portland's home advantage narrows the gap.
- St Louis City away record: 3W-4D-4L, 12 goals for, 16 against in 11 away matches
- Portland home record: 6W-2D-3L, 24 goals for, 18 against in 11 home matches
- St Louis City last 5 form: DWDWD (unbeaten in 5)
- Portland last 5 form: LDWLW (2 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt Louis CityEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given St Louis City's unbeaten run and Portland's mixed home form, the away side avoiding defeat is the most likely outcome.
- St Louis City away record: 3W-4D-4L, 12 goals for, 16 against in 11 away matches
- Portland home record: 6W-2D-3L, 24 goals for, 18 against in 11 home matches
- St Louis City last 5 form: DWDWD (unbeaten in 5)
- Portland last 5 form: LDWLW (2 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or St Louis CityEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's strong first-half record and Portland's tendency to trail early give the away side a slight edge at the break.
- St Louis City led at half-time in 60% of matches
- Portland trailed at half-time in 47% of matches
- St Louis City average 0.9 first-half goals scored vs 0.2 conceded
- Portland average 1.1 first-half goals scored vs 1.1 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSt Louis CityEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Portland's home crowd and second-half scoring tendency could see them edge the second period, though St Louis City's resilience makes this uncertain.
- Portland average 1.2 second-half goals scored vs 0.5 conceded
- St Louis City average 1.0 second-half goals scored vs 1.0 conceded
- Portland home matches often see late goals (24 for, 18 against in 11)
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostPortland TimbersEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a St Louis City win is a plausible scenario given their second-half strength and Portland's inconsistency.
- St Louis City led at half-time in 60% of matches
- Portland trailed at half-time in 47% of matches
- St Louis City unbeaten in last 5 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / St Louis CityEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Portland's home games are high-scoring and both teams have shown attacking intent, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Portland home matches average 3.8 total goals (24 for, 18 against in 11)
- St Louis City away matches average 2.5 total goals (12 for, 16 against in 11)
- Portland overall average 3.5 total goals per match (39 for, 39 against in 22)
- St Louis City overall average 2.9 total goals per match (33 for, 30 against in 22)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistently found the net and conceded on their respective home/away splits, supporting both teams scoring.
- Portland scored in 9 of 11 home matches
- St Louis City scored in 9 of 11 away matches
- Portland conceded in 8 of 11 home matches
- St Louis City conceded in 9 of 11 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, with St Louis City especially strong early, making a first-half goal likely.
- Portland average 1.1 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded
- St Louis City average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.2 conceded
- Portland led at half-time in 27% of matches, trailed in 47%
- St Louis City led at half-time in 60% of matches, trailed in 7%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' attacking output, but the line is high and confidence is limited.
- Portland average 1.2 second-half goals scored (2.3 total - 1.1 first half)
- St Louis City average 1.0 second-half goals scored (1.9 total - 0.9 first half)
- Portland average 0.5 second-half goals conceded (1.6 total - 1.1 first half)
- St Louis City average 1.0 second-half goals conceded (1.2 total - 0.2 first half)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede corners at a rate that suggests a total above 9.5 is possible, though variance is high.
- Portland average 5.2 corners per match, concede 5.2 opponent corners
- St Louis City average 5.4 corners per match, concede 5.4 opponent corners
- Combined average corners per match: 10.6
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average high shot totals, making over 24.5 shots a reasonable expectation.
- Portland average 14.3 shots per match, concede 14.3 opponent shots
- St Louis City average 14.3 shots per match, concede 14.3 opponent shots
- Combined average shots per match: 28.6
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records suggest a total above 3.5 cards is likely, though referee variance adds uncertainty.
- Portland average 1.8 yellow cards per match, concede 1.8 opponent yellow cards
- St Louis City average 2.5 yellow cards per match, concede 2.5 opponent yellow cards
- Combined average yellow cards per match: 4.3
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 50% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 38% for a home win; the price already reflects Portland's home reputation but ignores their key loss and St Louis's resilience.

Prediction history

St Louis City has been highly reliable when projected to win

St Louis City has fulfilled 4 of 4 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 43.3% and an expected 1.7 fulfilled predictions. All four wins occurred with probabilities between 40% and 48%, and the current 42% prediction sits within that historical range. The team has won both home and away in this sample, including a 3-1 away victory at LA Galaxy.

Recent evidence for St Louis City4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer