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Sporting Kansas City0St Louis City0

Thu 20 Aug 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–325%

Edges1–325%

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Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Aug 2026, 08:24 · Europe/Bucharest

St.

Louis City are in better form and the H2H is goal-heavy, but the market has already priced these factors in, leaving no value on match winner, double chance, over 2.5, or BTTS. The only slight edge is second-half over 1.5 goals at 1.95 (55% model vs 51.3% implied), but it's a low-confidence play. Avoid the popular markets and consider the second-half goals angle if you must bet.

Context

Sporting KC home record: 2W-2D-5L, 11 goals for, 17 against.
- Sporting KC average goals conceded: 2.8 per game.
- In their last home match, they lost 0-2 to Houston Dynamo.
St. Louis City form last 5: DWWWW (13 pts from 15).
- St. Louis average goals scored: 1.7 per game.
- They beat Sporting 3-2 in the most recent meeting on July 17.
Official previews confirmed St. Louis were four points below the playoff line and Sporting nine behind.
- Both clubs had 20 regular-season matches remaining at that time.
- No dead-rubber or broad-rotation risk is expected.
Raphaël Wicky is Sporting KC's new head coach this season.
- Yoann Damet is St. Louis' first-year head coach.
- Both coaching setups are still new entering the late-season playoff chase.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

St Louis City

1.95fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

St. Louis' strong recent form (DWWWW) and Sporting KC's poor home record (2W-2D-5L) support the away side, but the odds already reflect this and offer no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or St Louis City

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Sporting KC rarely wins at home and St. Louis has avoided defeat in 5 of 9 away games, but the odds are slightly short of our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

H2H history is strongly over 2.5 (9 of 11), but the odds already price this heavily; our 60% estimate is below the 69% implied, so no value despite the narrative.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

BTTS has hit in 9 of 11 H2H meetings, but the market is pricing it at 69% while our model only gives 60%, leaving no edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St. Louis City's strong recent form and Sporting KC's poor home record give the visitors an edge, though away inconsistency tempers confidence.
- St. Louis City form last 5: DWWWW (13 pts from 15)
- Sporting KC form last 5: LLWLL (3 pts from 15)
- Sporting KC home record: 2W-2D-5L, 11 goals for, 17 against
- St. Louis away record: 2W-3D-4L, 8 goals for, 14 against
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt Louis CityEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting KC rarely wins at home and St. Louis has avoided defeat in 5 of 9 away games, supporting the double chance.
- Sporting KC home win rate: 22% (2/9)
- St. Louis away loss rate: 44% (4/9)
- H2H last 5: Sporting 1W, St. Louis 2W, 2D
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or St Louis CityEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St. Louis often leads at half, but Sporting KC's tendency to trail and St. Louis's away caution could produce a level first half.
- Sporting KC first half results: 13% lead, 60% trail, 27% draw
- St. Louis first half results: 40% lead, 13% trail, 47% draw
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a St. Louis win is plausible given their second-half strength and Sporting KC's defensive frailty.
- St. Louis away: 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses
- Sporting KC home: 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses
- H2H: St. Louis won 2 of last 5, drew 2
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/St Louis CityEstimated chance20%

Goals0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The goal-heavy H2H history and Sporting KC's leaky defense make over 2.5 goals likely.
- H2H: 9 of last 11 meetings over 2.5 goals
- Sporting KC average goals conceded: 2.8 per game
- St. Louis average goals scored: 1.7 per game
- Sporting KC home games: 28 total goals in 9 matches (3.1 per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score and concede in this fixture, with H2H history strongly supporting BTTS.
- H2H: both teams scored in 9 of last 11 meetings
- Sporting KC scored in 7 of 9 home games
- St. Louis conceded in 7 of 9 away games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sporting KC's poor first-half defense (1.5 conceded) could lead to early goals, but St. Louis's low first-half scoring tempers the probability.
- Sporting KC first half goals for: 0.5 per game, against: 1.5 per game
- St. Louis first half goals for: 0.6 per game, against: 0.3 per game
- H2H last 5: first half goals total 7 (1.4 per game)
BetBugs · 1st Half Goalsnot gradableOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more active in the second half, and the H2H shows consistent second-half scoring.
- Sporting KC second half goals conceded: 1.3 per game (2.8 total - 1.5 first half)
- St. Louis second half goals scored: 1.1 per game (1.7 total - 0.6 first half)
- H2H last 5: second half goals total 8 (1.6 per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second Halfnot gradableOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average is near the line, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Sporting KC average corners: 3.6 per game, opponent corners: 5.3
- St. Louis average corners: 6.4 per game, opponent corners: 4.5
- Combined average corners per game: 9.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The derby intensity and both teams' disciplinary records suggest a moderate card count, but the line is close to the average.
- Sporting KC average yellow cards: 1.7 per game, opponent: 1.9
- St. Louis average yellow cards: 2.5 per game, opponent: 2.3
- Combined average cards per game: 4.2
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 51% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

St Louis City has been highly reliable when projected to win

St Louis City has fulfilled 4 of 4 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 43.3% and an expected 1.7 wins. They have won all four matches, including three at home and one away. The current prediction of 45% is within their historical range of 40-48%.

Recent evidence for St Louis City4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer