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Predictions graded

St Louis City1Real Salt Lake1

HT 0–0Sun 2 Aug 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges5–456%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 20–8On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 08:06 · Europe/Bucharest

St.

Louis City's strong home form and Real Salt Lake's road fatigue, compounded by the suspension of key creator Morgan Guilavogui, make the Double Chance (St. Louis or Draw) at 1.38 the safest bet. For higher value, look to Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.20 and Over 4.5 total cards at 3.60, where the odds significantly underestimate the true probabilities.

Context

Guilavogui received a red card on July 25 and is suspended for the next match.
- He assisted RSL's goal before his dismissal and leads the team with six assists.
- No other RSL player has more than four assists, making him their primary chance creator.
RSL lost 3-1 at LAFC and 2-1 at Portland in the last 10 days.
- The same starting lineup was used in both matches, with no rotation.
- This is their third away match in 11 days, with another game on August 4.
Colorado played with 10 men from the 12th minute after a red card.
- St. Louis outshot Colorado 18-2 but managed only three shots on target.
- The winning goal came in the 83rd minute, indicating difficulty breaking down a depleted defense.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's strong home form and recent momentum contrast with Real Salt Lake's poor away record and fatigue from a third consecutive road game, giving the home side a clear edge.
- St Louis City home record: 5W-1D-2L, 15 goals scored, 9 conceded in 8 matches
- Real Salt Lake away record: 1W-2D-5L, 10 goals scored, 16 conceded in 8 matches
- St Louis City last 5 matches: 4W-1D-0L, 11 goals scored, 4 conceded
- Real Salt Lake last 5 matches: 2W-1D-2L, 9 goals scored, 8 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt Louis CityEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's strong home form and Real Salt Lake's poor away record, combined with RSL's fatigue from a third consecutive road game, make a home win or draw highly likely.
- St Louis City home record: 5W-1D-2L, 15 goals scored, 9 conceded in 8 matches
- Real Salt Lake away record: 1W-2D-5L, 10 goals scored, 16 conceded in 8 matches
- St Louis City last 5 matches: 4W-1D-0L, 11 goals scored, 4 conceded
- Real Salt Lake last 5 matches: 2W-1D-2L, 9 goals scored, 8 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSt Louis City or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's tendency to lead at home and RSL's fatigue from travel could give the home side a slight first-half edge, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- St Louis City home first half record: led at half in 47% of last 15 matches
- Real Salt Lake away first half record: trailed at half in 13% of last 15 matches
- St Louis City last 5 matches: led at half in 3 of 5
- Real Salt Lake last 5 matches: led at half in 2 of 5
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSt Louis CityEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's home strength and RSL's away struggles suggest a possible home win from leading at half, but the low probability reflects the difficulty of predicting exact HT/FT outcomes.
- St Louis City home record: led at half in 47% of last 15, won 5 of 8 home games
- Real Salt Lake away record: trailed at half in 13% of last 15, lost 5 of 8 away games
- St Louis City last 5 matches: led at half and won in 3 of 5
- Real Salt Lake last 5 matches: trailed at half and lost in 1 of 5
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSt Louis City / St Louis CityEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The historically high-scoring H2H pattern, combined with both teams' tendency for goals in their respective home/away splits, supports over 2.5 goals despite RSL's key absence.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 produced at least 4 goals, both teams scored in 4
- St Louis City home matches: 15 goals scored, 9 conceded in 8 games (avg 3.0 total goals)
- Real Salt Lake away matches: 10 goals scored, 16 conceded in 8 games (avg 3.25 total goals)
- St Louis City last 5 matches: 11 goals scored, 4 conceded (avg 3.0 total goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The strong H2H trend of both teams scoring, along with both teams' home/away splits showing frequent goals at both ends, makes BTTS likely.
- H2H last 5 meetings: both teams scored in 4 of 5
- St Louis City home matches: both teams scored in 5 of 8
- Real Salt Lake away matches: both teams scored in 6 of 8
- St Louis City last 5 matches: both teams scored in 3 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent first-half scoring records, and the H2H history shows early goals in most meetings, making over 0.5 first-half goals probable.
- St Louis City first half goals at home: 0.7 avg, conceded 0.3 avg in last 15
- Real Salt Lake first half goals away: 1.1 avg, conceded 0.7 avg in last 15
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 had at least 1 first-half goal
- St Louis City last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits and recent H2H history show a pattern of second-half goals, likely due to fatigue and tactical adjustments, making over 1.5 second-half goals a solid pick.
- St Louis City home matches: 15 goals scored, 9 conceded in 8 games, many in second half
- Real Salt Lake away matches: 10 goals scored, 16 conceded in 8 games, many in second half
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 had at least 2 second-half goals
- St Louis City last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had at least 2 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and the H2H history shows high corner counts, making over 9.5 corners a reasonable expectation.
- St Louis City home corners: avg 6.2 per game in last 15
- Real Salt Lake away corners: avg 4.7 per game in last 15
- H2H last 5 meetings: total corners averaged 10.2 per game
- St Louis City last 5 matches: total corners averaged 10.4 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's home corner average and RSL's tendency to concede corners on the road support over 5.5 home corners, though recent home corner numbers are mixed.
- St Louis City home corners: avg 6.2 per game in last 15
- St Louis City last 5 home matches: corners: 10, 5, 2, 2, 8 (avg 5.4)
- Real Salt Lake away corners conceded: avg 5.4 per game in last 15
- H2H last 5 meetings: St Louis City averaged 5.2 corners per game
BetBugs · Home CornerswonSt Louis City over 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a moderate disciplinary record, and the H2H history shows consistent card counts above 4.5, making over 4.5 cards likely.
- St Louis City home cards: avg 2.5 yellow, 0.5 red in last 15
- Real Salt Lake away cards: avg 1.8 yellow, 0.5 red in last 15
- H2H last 5 meetings: total cards averaged 5.2 per game
- St Louis City last 5 matches: total cards averaged 5.0 per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's home card average is right at the line, but recent home matches and H2H history suggest they could pick up over 2.5 cards in a competitive match.
- St Louis City home cards: avg 2.5 yellow, 0.5 red in last 15
- St Louis City last 5 home matches: cards: 1, 2, 1, 5, 3 (avg 2.4)
- Real Salt Lake away matches: opponents averaged 2.1 cards per game
- H2H last 5 meetings: St Louis City averaged 2.4 cards per game
BetBugs · Home Cards Over/UnderwonSt Louis City over 2.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

RSL's away form is poor (1W-2D-5L) and they are missing a key creator on a third straight road game; the odds do not compensate for the risk.

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

D2-2St. Louis CityvReal Salt LakeOct 19, 2025MAJ

L3-2Real Salt LakevSt. Louis CityJul 6, 2025MAJ

D1-1St. Louis CityvReal Salt LakeFeb 5, 2025FRI

L3-1Real Salt LakevSt. Louis CityMar 31, 2024MAJ

D1-1St. Louis CityvReal Salt LakeFeb 25, 2024MAJ

Real Salt Lake unbeaten in 5 meetings3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	St Louis City Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	17	7	4	6	23-23	25	WWWWD
4	Real Salt Lake Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	16	8	2	6	28-24	26	LLDWW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

St Louis City

W1-0Colorado RapidsJul 26MAJ

W3-1Los Angeles GalaxyJul 23MAJ

W3-2Sporting Kansas CityJul 17MAJ

W3-0AustinMay 23MAJ

D1-1DC UnitedMay 16MAJ

W2-1Los Angeles FCMay 14MAJ

W1-0Colorado RapidsMay 10MAJ

L0-2AustinMay 3MAJ

W2-1Chicago FireApr 30US

L2-3San Jose EarthquakesApr 26MAJ

L1-4Seattle SoundersApr 19MAJ

W4-0FC TulsaApr 16US

D1-1FC DallasApr 12MAJ

D1-1New York City FCApr 4MAJ

W3-1New England RevolutionMar 22MAJ

Real Salt Lake

L1-2Portland TimbersJul 26MAJ

L1-3Los Angeles FCJul 23MAJ

W4-1BurnleyJul 16FRI

D1-1Minnesota United FCMay 23MAJ

W2-1Colorado RapidsMay 17MAJ

W3-0Houston DynamoMay 14MAJ

L1-3FC DallasMay 10MAJ

W2-0Portland TimbersMay 2MAJ

L1-2Los Angeles GalaxyApr 26MAJ

L0-2Inter MiamiApr 23MAJ

W4-2San DiegoApr 19MAJ

W3-1Sporting Kansas CityApr 4MAJ

D2-2San DiegoMar 22MAJ

W2-1AustinMar 15MAJ

W3-2Atlanta United FCMar 8MAJ

Squad & Injuries

St Louis City

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Real Salt Lake

33 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders11

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

St Louis City or Draw

Over 1.5

Over 4.5

St Louis City over 2.5

St Louis City

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Over 9.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Markets to Avoid

Real Salt Lake

St Louis City over 5.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St Louis City

Real Salt Lake

Squad & Injuries

St Louis City

Real Salt Lake