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Predictions graded

Charlotte3Toronto1

HT 2–1Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions12–286%

Edges11–0100%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 18–12On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 20:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Charlotte’s home form points to a likely win or draw, but the odds offer no value.

The standout betting edge is over 3.5 cards at 2.63, with both teams averaging well above that total and a 22-point edge over the implied probability. Avoid the match winner and first-half goals markets where the prices are too short.

Context

Defenders Kuscevic, Laryea, Matheus Pereira, Stefanovic, and Wingo are all out.
- Midfielders Cifuentes and Mihailovic are also missing, weakening the spine.
- Attacker Vilsaint and winger Corbeanu add to the attacking absences.
- Only one of the injured players (Sargent) is listed as questionable, the rest are confirmed out.
Home record: 3W-2D-2L, 14 goals scored, 8 conceded.
- Last five overall: LDLLL, but three of those losses were away from home.
- At home in their last five, they drew 2-2 with Cincinnati and lost 0-1 to NYCFC.
- They have scored in six of seven home games this season.
Fraser took over on January 10, 2025, following Herdman's exit in November 2024.
- Toronto's record this season: 3W-4D-5L, with only one away win.
- They have conceded 23 goals in 12 matches, the second-worst defensive record in the East.
- The team has used multiple formations and lineups, suggesting ongoing experimentation.
Toronto won 2-0 at Charlotte on May 31, 2025.
- Charlotte won 2-0 at home on July 26, 2025.
- The overall H2H across the last five meetings is 3 Charlotte wins, 2 Toronto wins.
- Three of the last five H2H matches have seen over 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 9

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Charlotte

1.79fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 56%

0.0ppshort

Charlotte's solid home record (3W-2D-2L, +6 GD) and Toronto's poor away form (1W-0D-2L, -3 GD) give the hosts an edge, but the odds imply a 56% chance which is above our 42% estimate, so no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Charlotte or Draw

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Charlotte are unlikely to lose at home given their strong defensive record (8 conceded in 7) and Toronto's road woes, but the odds imply an 80% chance, well above our 68% estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high BTTS rates this season (Charlotte 69%, Toronto 75%), and the match is expected to be open, but the odds offer no margin above our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

High-scoring averages (Charlotte home 3.14, Toronto away 3.0) suggest goals, but the odds are tight and our estimate is below the implied probability.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Majority of matches have seen first-half goals, but the odds are heavily skewed and our estimate is well below the implied probability.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Toronto to score

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Charlotte have kept only two home clean sheets, and Toronto have scored in most matches, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Charlotte to score

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Toronto have no away clean sheets, and Charlotte score in most home games, but the odds are heavily juiced against the 'No' selection.

Home Win to NilwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.14fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 87.7%

0.0ppshort

Charlotte's low home clean sheet rate and Toronto's consistent scoring make a home win to nil unlikely, but the odds are extremely short.

Away Win to NilwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.10fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Toronto have no away clean sheets and Charlotte rarely fail to score at home, making an away win to nil extremely unlikely, but the odds reflect that.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Charlotte's solid home form (3 wins in 7, +6 goal difference) and Toronto's poor away record (1 win in 3, -3 goal difference) give the hosts an edge, supported by recent H2H home success.
- Charlotte home record: 3W-2D-2L, 14GF-8GA in 7 matches this season
- Toronto away record: 1W-0D-2L, 3GF-6GA in 3 matches this season
- Charlotte last 5 form: LDLLL, but 3 of those were away; home form in last 5 includes a 2-2 draw vs Cincinnati and 0-1 loss to NYCFC
- H2H last 5: Charlotte 3 wins, Toronto 2 wins; Charlotte won last home meeting 2-0 in July 2025
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCharlotteEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Charlotte are unlikely to lose at home given their strong home defensive record (8 conceded in 7) and Toronto's struggles on the road, making a home win or draw highly probable.
- Charlotte home record: 3W-2D-2L, 14GF-8GA
- Toronto away record: 1W-0D-2L, 3GF-6GA
- Toronto overall form: LDLDD, only 3 wins in 12 matches
- Charlotte have lost only 2 of 7 home matches this season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCharlotte or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high proportion of first-half draws this season, and the H2H shows a tendency for tight first halves, making a draw at halftime a reasonable outcome.
- Charlotte first half record: led at HT in 20% of matches, trailed in 40%, drew in 40%
- Toronto first half record: led at HT in 14% of matches, trailed in 43%, drew in 43%
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws at HT, 2 home wins, 1 away win
- Charlotte home first half: 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 7
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%

Goals8 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with Charlotte's home matches and Toronto's away matches averaging over 3 goals, suggesting a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
- Charlotte home matches average 3.14 total goals (14GF+8GA in 7 games)
- Toronto away matches average 3.0 total goals (3GF+6GA in 3 games)
- Both teams' overall matches: Charlotte 42 goals in 13 (3.23 per game), Toronto 44 goals in 12 (3.67 per game)
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high rate of both teams scoring this season, especially in Charlotte's home games and Toronto's away games, making it likely both will find the net.
- Charlotte home matches: both teams scored in 5 of 7 (71%)
- Toronto away matches: both teams scored in 2 of 3 (67%)
- Charlotte overall: both teams scored in 9 of 13 (69%)
- Toronto overall: both teams scored in 9 of 12 (75%)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede in the first half, and the majority of their matches have seen at least one first-half goal, supporting over 0.5 goals in the first half.
- Charlotte first half goals: 0.4 per game, conceded 0.8 per game; 60% of matches had first-half goals
- Toronto first half goals: 0.3 per game, conceded 0.7 per game; 57% of matches had first-half goals
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had first-half goals
- Charlotte home first-half stats: 5 of 7 home matches had first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score the majority of their goals in the second half, and with the match expected to be open, over 1.5 second-half goals is likely.
- Charlotte second half goals: 1.3 per game (1.7 total - 0.4 first half)
- Toronto second half goals: 1.2 per game (1.5 total - 0.3 first half)
- Charlotte home second half: 8 of 14 home goals scored in second half
- Toronto away second half: 2 of 3 away goals scored in second half
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Charlotte have kept only two home clean sheets this season, and Toronto have scored in most of their matches, making a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Charlotte home clean sheets: 2 in 7 matches (29%)
- Toronto away failed to score: 1 in 3 matches (33%)
- Toronto overall scored in 10 of 12 matches (83%)
- Charlotte conceded in 5 of 7 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonToronto to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto have not kept an away clean sheet this season, and Charlotte have scored in nearly all home games, making an away clean sheet highly improbable.
- Toronto away clean sheets: 0 in 3 matches
- Charlotte home failed to score: 1 in 7 matches (14%)
- Charlotte overall scored in 10 of 13 matches (77%)
- Toronto conceded in all 3 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCharlotte to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Charlotte's low home clean sheet rate and Toronto's consistent scoring make a home win to nil unlikely.
- Charlotte home win to nil: 2 in 7 matches (29%)
- Toronto away scored in 2 of 3 matches
- Toronto overall scored in 10 of 12 matches
- Charlotte home clean sheets: only 2 in 7
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto have no away clean sheets and Charlotte rarely fail to score at home, making an away win to nil extremely unlikely.
- Toronto away win to nil: 0 in 3 matches
- Charlotte home scored in 6 of 7 matches
- Toronto away clean sheets: 0 in 3
- Charlotte home failed to score only once
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and historical data shows rare instances of both teams scoring before halftime, making it unlikely.
- Charlotte first half goals: 0.4 per game, conceded 0.8; both teams scored in first half in 2 of 13 matches (15%)
- Toronto first half goals: 0.3 per game, conceded 0.7; both teams scored in first half in 2 of 12 matches (17%)
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in first half in 1 of 5
- Charlotte home first half: both scored in 1 of 7
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance35%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Toronto's matches average over 11 corners, and while Charlotte's home total is lower, the visitors' high corner involvement could push the total over 9.5.
- Charlotte average corners per game: 4.5, opponent corners: 4.5 (total 9.0)
- Toronto average corners per game: 6.0, opponent corners: 5.5 (total 11.5)
- Charlotte home corners: 4.7 per game, concede 3.7 (total 8.4)
- Toronto away corners: 5.3 per game, concede 6.0 (total 11.3)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average over 4 cards, and with a competitive Eastern Conference matchup, the total cards should exceed 3.5.
- Charlotte average yellow cards: 2.5 per game, opponent: 2.5 (total 5.0)
- Toronto average yellow cards: 1.9 per game, opponent: 2.3 (total 4.2)
- Charlotte home cards: 2.4 yellows, concede 2.6 (total 5.0)
- Toronto away cards: 1.7 yellows, concede 2.3 (total 4.0)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W2-0CharlottevToronto FCJul 26, 2025MAJ

W0-2Toronto FCvCharlotteMay 31, 2025MAJ

W3-2CharlottevToronto FCApr 13, 2024MAJ

L1-0Toronto FCvCharlotteMar 9, 2024MAJ

W3-0CharlottevToronto FCOct 4, 2023MAJ

Charlotte: 3 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Charlotte Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)	13	4	3	6	20-22	15	LDLLL
10	Toronto	12	3	5	4	20-24	14	LDLDD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Charlotte

L0-1New York City FCMay 13MAJ

D2-2FC CincinnatiMay 9MAJ

L0-1New England RevolutionMay 2MAJ

L0-2Atlanta United FCApr 28US

L2-4Nashville SCApr 26MAJ

L1-4Orlando City SCApr 22MAJ

W2-1New York City FCApr 18MAJ

W6-0Charlotte IndependenceApr 15US

L1-2Nashville SCApr 11MAJ

W2-1Philadelphia UnionApr 4MAJ

W6-1New York Red BullsMar 21MAJ

D0-0Inter MiamiMar 14MAJ

W3-1AustinMar 8MAJ

L0-3Los Angeles GalaxyMar 1MAJ

D1-1St. Louis CityFeb 21MAJ

Toronto

L2-4Inter MiamiMay 9MAJ

L1-3Atlético OttawaMay 5CAN

D1-1San Jose EarthquakesMay 2MAJ

L1-2Atlanta United FCApr 25MAJ

D3-3Philadelphia UnionApr 22MAJ

D3-3AustinApr 18MAJ

D1-1FC CincinnatiApr 11MAJ

W3-2Colorado RapidsApr 4MAJ

W2-1Columbus CrewMar 21MAJ

D1-1New York Red BullsMar 14MAJ

W1-0FC CincinnatiMar 8MAJ

L0-3Vancouver WhitecapsMar 1MAJ

L2-3FC DallasFeb 22MAJ

W2-1PolessyaFeb 14FRI

L0-1FredrikstadFeb 11FRI

Squad & Injuries

Charlotte

4 out

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders4/10

×#22

×#15

×#22

×#15

Goalkeeper3

#22 H. Kessler — Lower-Body Injury

#15 H. Toffolo — Hamstring Injury

#22 H. Kessler — Lower-Body Injury

#15 H. Toffolo — Hamstring Injury

Toronto

20 out

Attackers4/7

×#99

×#9

×#99

×#9

Midfielders4/9

×#8

×#10

×#8

×#10

Defenders10/14

×#13

×#22

×#3

×#76

×#2

×#13

×#22

×#3

×#76

×#2

Goalkeeper3

#8 J. Cifuentes — Knee Injury

T. Corbeanu — Knee Injury

#13 B. Kuscevic — Groin Injury

#22 R. Laryea — Injury

#3 Matheus Pereira — Groin Injury

#10 D. Mihailovic — Pelvis Injury

#76 L. Stefanovic — Injury

#99 J. Vilsaint — Groin Injury

#2 H. Wingo — Muscle Injury

#9 J. Sargent — Thigh Injury

#8 J. Cifuentes — Knee Injury

T. Corbeanu — Knee Injury

#13 B. Kuscevic — Groin Injury

#22 R. Laryea — Injury

#3 Matheus Pereira — Groin Injury

#10 D. Mihailovic — Pelvis Injury

#76 L. Stefanovic — Injury

#99 J. Vilsaint — Groin Injury

#2 H. Wingo — Muscle Injury

#9 J. Sargent — Thigh Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Over 3.5

Charlotte

Charlotte or Draw

Yes

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Toronto to score

Charlotte to score

No

No

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals8 of 9 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Charlotte

Toronto

Squad & Injuries

Charlotte

Toronto