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Predictions graded

New England Revolution0Toronto0

HT 0–0Wed 22 Jul 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 11–13On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 7–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Jul 2026, 08:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Four straight H2H unders and Toronto's fresh 0-0 restart point to another low-scoring affair; the Under 2.5 goals at 2.00 offers an 18-point edge.

New England's home fortress makes them likely to avoid defeat, but the first-half draw at 2.30 is the sharper value play given both teams' slow-starting patterns.

Context

New England's last MLS match was on May 23; Toronto played July 16.
- Toronto's 0-0 draw at Montréal was a competitive restart, not a friendly.
- New England head coach Mitrovic described the break as a 'second preseason' with three weeks off and four-to-five weeks of training.
Toronto's July 16 match recap confirms Osorio was suspended for that game.
- Osorio is Toronto's captain and a key central midfielder.
- No other Toronto suspensions are reported for this match.
Results: 1-1 (Sep 2025), 2-0 (May 2025), 1-0 (Apr 2024), 1-0 (Mar 2024).
- Only one of those four matches saw both teams score.
- New England's home H2H in that span: 1-1 draw and 2-0 win.
Home record: 7W-0D-1L, 17 goals scored, 7 conceded.
- Three clean sheets in the last five home matches.
- The only home loss was to Nashville (0-3) on May 13, before the break.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation/stakes and structural home/away edge heavily favor New England, who have been dominant at home while Toronto struggle on the road.
- New England home record: 7W-0D-1L (17 GF, 7 GA) – best home win rate in Eastern Conference.
- Toronto away record: 1W-1D-4L (5 GF, 11 GA) – only 1 away win all season.
- New England won last home H2H vs Toronto 2-0 (May 2025).
- New England is 4th in East (25 pts), Toronto 12th (15 pts) – 10-point gap.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNew England RevolutionEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge and motivation/stakes make a New England loss highly unlikely given their fortress home form and Toronto's poor away record.
- New England home record: 7W-0D-1L – only 1 loss in 8 home games.
- Toronto away record: 1W-1D-4L – lost 4 of 6 away games.
- Last 5 H2H: New England 2W, Toronto 2W, 1D – but New England unbeaten in last 2 home H2H (1W, 1D).
- New England's only home loss was to Nashville (0-3), a top Eastern team; Toronto is 12th.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNew England Revolution or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and both teams' low first-half leading percentages suggest a high probability of a level score at the break.
- Last 5 H2H first-half results: 4 draws, 1 Toronto lead.
- New England led at half-time in only 20% of matches this season; Toronto led in 13%.
- New England's last 5 home matches: 3 draws at half-time, 2 losses.
- Toronto's last 5 away matches: 3 draws at half-time, 2 losses.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tactical matchup edge and motivation/stakes suggest New England's superior home second-half performance could break a deadlock, though evidence is limited to recent patterns.
- New England won 3 of last 5 home matches after being level at half-time.
- Toronto lost 3 of last 5 away matches after being level at half-time.
- Last H2H in New England (Sep 2025) was 0-0 at half-time, ended 1-1.
- New England's home second-half goal difference is +7 (10 GF, 3 GA).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/New England RevolutionEstimated chance30%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and recent low-scoring patterns strongly support Under 2.5, reinforced by Toronto's fresh 0-0 restart and New England's home defensive solidity.
- Last 4 MLS H2H meetings all finished Under 2.5 goals (2023-2025).
- New England home matches this season average 3.0 total goals (17 GF, 7 GA in 8 games), but 5 of 8 stayed Under 2.5.
- Toronto away matches average 2.67 total goals (5 GF, 11 GA in 6 games), with 4 of 6 Under 2.5.
- Toronto just played a 0-0 restart match at Montréal on July 16, showing low-event rhythm.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge and H2H psychology point to at least one side failing to score, with New England's strong home defense and Toronto's away scoring struggles.
- New England kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 home MLS matches.
- Toronto failed to score in 2 of last 3 away matches (0 at Montréal, 0 at Vancouver).
- Last 4 H2H meetings: both teams scored only once (1-1 draw in Sep 2025).
- New England home record: 7W-0D-1L, 17 GF, 7 GA – only 3 of 8 home games saw both teams score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and recent first-half scoring patterns strongly indicate a slow start, with both teams averaging well under 1.0 first-half goals.
- New England averages 0.6 first-half goals at home this season; Toronto averages 0.3 first-half goals away.
- Last 5 H2H first halves: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 – only 1 goal total in 5 first halves.
- Toronto's last match (July 16) was 0-0 at half-time.
- New England's last 5 home matches: 3 had 0 first-half goals, 2 had 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge and recent second-half trends hint at more goals after the break, but the overall low-scoring H2H pattern keeps confidence low.
- New England home second halves: 10 goals in 8 matches (1.25 per game).
- Toronto away second halves: 8 goals conceded in 6 matches (1.33 per game).
- Last 5 H2H second halves: 2 goals, 2 goals, 1 goal, 1 goal, 1 goal – 3 of 5 had Over 1.5.
- New England's last 5 home matches: 3 had Over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge and Toronto's away scoring woes give New England a solid chance at a shutout, though Toronto has scored in 2 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- New England kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 home MLS matches.
- Toronto failed to score in 2 of last 3 away matches.
- New England home goals against average: 0.88 per game (7 GA in 8 games).
- Last H2H in New England: Toronto scored 1 goal (1-1 draw).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonToronto not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge and Toronto's leaky away defense make it likely New England will score at least twice, supported by their strong home scoring record.
- New England scored 2+ goals in 5 of 8 home matches this season.
- New England home goals per game: 2.13 (17 GF in 8 games).
- Toronto conceded 2+ goals in 4 of 6 away matches this season.
- Last home H2H: New England scored 2 goals vs Toronto (May 2025).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostNew England Revolution over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge and Toronto's away scoring struggles suggest a possible blank, but H2H history shows Toronto often nicks a goal, keeping confidence low.
- Toronto failed to score in 2 of last 3 away matches.
- Toronto away goals per game: 0.83 (5 GF in 6 games).
- New England kept 3 clean sheets in last 5 home matches.
- Last 5 H2H: Toronto scored in 3 of 5, but only 1 goal in each of those 3.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonToronto under 0.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and both teams' recent corner averages support a lower corner count, with most recent meetings and matches staying under the line.
- New England home corners average: 3.7 per game; Toronto away corners average: 5.4 per game – combined 9.1.
- Last 5 H2H corner totals: 7, 19, 10, 8, 10 – 4 of 5 Under 9.5 (using 9.5 line).
- New England's last 5 home matches: corner totals of 7, 12, 8, 5, 4 – 4 of 5 Under 9.5.
- Toronto's last 5 away matches: corner totals of 12, 7, 10, 6, 6 – 3 of 5 Under 9.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and recent discipline patterns suggest a moderately high card count, though confidence is tempered by the low-impact nature of this market.
- New England home yellow cards average: 2.0 per game; Toronto away yellow cards average: 2.0 per game.
- Last 5 H2H card totals: 4, 5, 5, 6, 4 – 4 of 5 Over 4.5.
- New England's last 5 home matches: card totals of 6, 5, 3, 4, 5 – 4 of 5 Over 4.5.
- Toronto's last 5 away matches: card totals of 5, 6, 4, 6, 2 – 4 of 5 Over 4.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

D1-1New England RevolutionvToronto FCSep 13, 2025MAJ

W0-2Toronto FCvNew England RevolutionMay 3, 2025MAJ

L1-0Toronto FCvNew England RevolutionApr 20, 2024MAJ

L0-1New England RevolutionvToronto FCMar 3, 2024MAJ

W2-1New England RevolutionvToronto FCJun 24, 2023MAJ

Toronto: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	New England Revolution Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	14	8	1	5	22-18	25	LWLWW
12	Toronto	15	3	6	6	22-29	15	DLLLD

10pt gap between teams

Recent Form

New England Revolution

L0-1CharlotteMay 23MAJ

W2-1Minnesota United FCMay 16MAJ

L0-3Nashville SCMay 13MAJ

W2-1Philadelphia UnionMay 9MAJ

W1-0CharlotteMay 2MAJ

L3-4Orlando City SCApr 29US

D1-1Inter MiamiApr 25MAJ

W2-1Atlanta United FCApr 22MAJ

W2-1Columbus CrewApr 18MAJ

W1-0DC UnitedApr 11MAJ

W3-0CF MontrealApr 4MAJ

L1-3St. Louis CityMar 22MAJ

W6-1FC CincinnatiMar 15MAJ

L0-1New York Red BullsFeb 28MAJ

L1-4Nashville SCFeb 22MAJ

Toronto

D0-0CF MontrealJul 16MAJ

L1-2Chicago FireMay 24MAJ

L1-3CharlotteMay 16MAJ

L2-4Inter MiamiMay 9MAJ

L1-3Atlético OttawaMay 5CAN

D1-1San Jose EarthquakesMay 2MAJ

L1-2Atlanta United FCApr 25MAJ

D3-3Philadelphia UnionApr 22MAJ

D3-3AustinApr 18MAJ

D1-1FC CincinnatiApr 11MAJ

W3-2Colorado RapidsApr 4MAJ

W2-1Columbus CrewMar 21MAJ

D1-1New York Red BullsMar 14MAJ

W1-0FC CincinnatiMar 8MAJ

L0-3Vancouver WhitecapsMar 1MAJ

Squad & Injuries

New England Revolution

32 available

Attackers10

Midfielders9

Defenders11

Goalkeeper2

Toronto

35 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders14

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

New England Revolution

New England Revolution or Draw

Draw

Under 9.5

Under 1.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals5 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

New England Revolution

Toronto

Squad & Injuries

New England Revolution

Toronto