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Predictions graded

St Louis City3Austin0

HT 1–0Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 15–7On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 2–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 May 2026, 23:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Austin's first game after a coaching clear-out meets a St.

Louis side missing Wallem and coming off midweek cup action. The best betting value is on over 4.5 cards (4.00, 60% estimate) and the first-half draw (2.60, 55% estimate), while the match winner market is too tight to offer an edge.

Context

Austin FC officially announced the departures on May 18, citing a belief that the squad can still make the 2026 playoffs.
- Davy Arnaud, previously an assistant, will lead the team on short notice for this away match.
- Coaching changes often create short-term unpredictability in performance and tactics.
Wallem received a red card in the previous MLS match against D.C. United and is suspended.
- St. Louis beat Houston on penalties in the U.S. Open Cup on May 20, just three days before this match.
- Several other St. Louis players are questionable with injuries, including attackers Cordova and Ostrak.
Austin's away record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, with 10 goals scored and 22 conceded.
- They have conceded 2+ goals in six of those seven away matches.
- In their last away match, they lost 5-0 at San Diego.
MLS takes a break from late May to late July for the World Cup, making this the final chance to earn points before the hiatus.
- Austin sit 13th and St. Louis 14th in the Western Conference, with only the top nine making the playoffs.
- A loss here would leave either team with a significant gap to close when the season resumes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's home advantage and Austin's poor away form (0 wins, -12 goal difference) combined with Austin's coaching upheaval give the hosts a moderate edge, despite St Louis's own inconsistent home record.
- St Louis City home record: 2W-1D-2L, 8 goals for, 7 against in 5 home MLS matches this season.
- Austin away record: 0W-3D-4L, 10 goals for, 22 against in 7 away MLS matches this season.
- Austin just changed coach and sporting director on May 18, with interim coach Davy Arnaud taking charge for this match.
- St Louis City won 2 of last 3 home H2H MLS meetings vs Austin, including a 1-0 win in February 2026 friendly.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSt Louis CityEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Austin's inability to win on the road this season, combined with St Louis City's relatively solid home defense, makes a home win or draw highly probable.
- Austin has not won any of their 7 away MLS matches this season (0W-3D-4L).
- St Louis City has lost only 2 of 5 home MLS matches this season.
- Austin's away goals conceded average is 3.14 per game (22 conceded in 7 away matches).
- St Louis City's home goals conceded average is 1.4 per game (7 conceded in 5 home matches).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSt Louis City or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of halftime draws for St Louis City, combined with Austin's tendency for slow starts on the road, makes a level score at the break the most likely outcome.
- St Louis City has drawn at halftime in 8 of their last 15 matches (53%).
- Austin has drawn at halftime in 5 of their last 15 matches (33%), but 4 of those were away from home.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 were draws at halftime.
- St Louis City's first-half goal difference at home is +0.2 (0.4 scored, 0.2 conceded per home game).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Louis City tends to improve after halftime at home, while Austin's away defense often weakens in the second half, giving the hosts a slight edge to win the second period.
- St Louis City has scored 60% of their home goals in the second half (5 of 8 home goals after halftime).
- Austin has conceded 64% of their away goals in the second half (14 of 22 away goals against after halftime).
- St Louis City has won the second half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Austin has lost the second half in 5 of their last 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSt Louis CityEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The pattern of St Louis City being level at the break and then pulling ahead in the second half has occurred in 40% of their recent home matches, while Austin has struggled to hold on in similar situations away from home.
- St Louis City has drawn at halftime and won the match in 2 of their last 5 home games.
- Austin has drawn at halftime and lost the match in 2 of their last 7 away games.
- St Louis City's home record when drawing at halftime is 2W-1D-1L.
- Austin's away record when drawing at halftime is 0W-2D-2L.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / St Louis CityEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Austin's leaky away defense (3.14 goals conceded per away game) and St Louis City's ability to score at home suggest a match with at least 3 goals, despite St Louis's moderate home scoring output.
- Austin's away matches average 4.57 total goals (10 scored, 22 conceded in 7 away games).
- St Louis City's home matches average 3.0 total goals (8 scored, 7 conceded in 5 home games).
- Austin has conceded 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 away MLS matches.
- St Louis City has scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistently found the net in their respective home/away splits, with Austin's porous away defense and St Louis City's occasional home defensive lapses making it likely both will score.
- Austin has scored in 6 of their 7 away MLS matches this season (10 goals total).
- St Louis City has scored in 4 of their 5 home MLS matches this season (8 goals total).
- Austin has conceded in all 7 away MLS matches this season (22 goals against).
- St Louis City has conceded in 4 of their 5 home MLS matches this season (7 goals against).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight first halves in H2H matchups, pointing to a low-scoring opening period.
- St Louis City averages 0.4 first-half goals per game over the last 15 matches.
- Austin averages 0.7 first-half goals per game over the last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, only 1 match had more than 1 first-half goal.
- St Louis City has been leading at halftime in only 27% of recent matches, Austin in 33%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Louis City's home matches tend to produce more corners due to their attacking style, and Austin's away matches often see high corner counts against them, pushing the total over 9.5.
- St Louis City averages 6.2 corners per game overall, but 7.2 corners per home game in recent matches.
- Austin averages 4.5 corners per game overall, but concedes 6.4 corners per away game.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners averaged 10.2 per match.
- St Louis City's last 3 home matches have seen 11, 9, and 12 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency for disciplinary issues, with St Louis City's recent card accumulation and Austin's away match card frequency suggesting a match with at least 5 total cards.
- St Louis City averages 2.6 yellow cards per game, with 3+ cards in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Austin averages 2.1 yellow cards per game, with 2+ cards in 5 of their last 7 away matches.
- The last H2H meeting (May 3, 2026) saw 5 total cards (3 for Austin, 2 for St Louis).
- St Louis City's Wallem is suspended, but the team still averages 12.5 fouls per game, indicating physical play.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L2-0AustinvSt. Louis CityMay 3, 2026MAJ

L1-0St. Louis CityvAustinFeb 7, 2026FRI

W1-3AustinvSt. Louis CityOct 5, 2025MAJ

W0-1St. Louis CityvAustinMar 30, 2025MAJ

L1-0St. Louis CityvAustinApr 14, 2024MAJ

Austin: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	St Louis City	13	3	4	6	13-20	13	DWWLL
13	Austin	14	3	5	6	19-28	14	LLDWW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

St Louis City

D1-1DC UnitedMay 16MAJ

W2-1Los Angeles FCMay 14MAJ

W1-0Colorado RapidsMay 10MAJ

L0-2AustinMay 3MAJ

W2-1Chicago FireApr 30US

L2-3San Jose EarthquakesApr 26MAJ

L1-4Seattle SoundersApr 19MAJ

W4-0FC TulsaApr 16US

D1-1FC DallasApr 12MAJ

D1-1New York City FCApr 4MAJ

W3-1New England RevolutionMar 22MAJ

L0-2Los Angeles FCMar 15MAJ

L0-1Seattle SoundersMar 8MAJ

L0-2San DiegoMar 2MAJ

D1-1CharlotteFeb 21MAJ

Austin

L1-2Sporting Kansas CityMay 17MAJ

L0-5San DiegoMay 14MAJ

D2-2Minnesota United FCMay 10MAJ

W2-0St. Louis CityMay 3MAJ

W2-0Houston DynamoApr 26MAJ

L1-5San Jose EarthquakesApr 23MAJ

D3-3Toronto FCApr 18MAJ

L1-2Louisville CityApr 14US

L1-2Los Angeles GalaxyApr 11MAJ

D2-2Inter MiamiApr 4MAJ

D0-0Los Angeles FCMar 22MAJ

L1-2Real Salt LakeMar 15MAJ

L1-3CharlotteMar 8MAJ

W1-0DC UnitedMar 1MAJ

D2-2Minnesota United FCFeb 22MAJ

Squad & Injuries

St Louis City

10 out

Attackers4/8

×#12

×#16

×#12

×#16

Midfielders6/9

×#6

×#99

×#7

×#6

×#99

×#7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

#12 Celio Pompeu — Knee Injury

#6 C. Wallem — Red Card

#16 S. Cordova — Injury

#99 J. Orozco — Leg Injury

#7 T. Ostrak — Hamstring Injury

#12 Celio Pompeu — Knee Injury

#6 C. Wallem — Red Card

#16 S. Cordova — Injury

#99 J. Orozco — Leg Injury

#7 T. Ostrak — Hamstring Injury

Austin

6 out

Attackers2/5

×#16

Midfielders2/11

×#38

Defenders2/9

×#4

Goalkeeper2

#4 B. Hines-Ike — Injury

#16 R. Taylor — Knee Injury

#38 E. Torres — Injury

#4 B. Hines-Ike — Injury

#16 R. Taylor — Knee Injury

#38 E. Torres — Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 1.5

Over 4.5

St Louis City or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

St Louis City

Austin

Squad & Injuries

St Louis City

Austin