Toronto2Nashville1

HT 0–1Wed 9 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–1017%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 16–11On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 3–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 17:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Nashville's superior away defense and Toronto's poor home form make Nashville or Draw (1.40) and Under 2.5 goals (2.25) the top value bets.

Avoid backing Nashville outright due to schedule congestion and Toronto's draw-heavy home record.

Context

Nashville SC is the Eastern Conference leader with 52 points from 22 matches.
Their away record shows 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with only 5 goals conceded in 10 games. This defensive strength away from home suggests Toronto may struggle to create clear chances. However, Toronto has scored 23 goals in 12 home matches, so they can still threaten.
- Nashville's away record: 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, 5 goals conceded in 10 matches.
- Toronto's home record: 3 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses, 23 goals scored in 12 matches.
Toronto FC is 10th in the Eastern Conference with 25 points.
Their home record includes 7 draws and 2 losses, showing difficulty converting home advantage into wins. Against a strong Nashville side, this pattern may continue. However, Toronto has been competitive, with a goal difference of 0 at home.
- Toronto's home record: 3 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses in 12 matches.
- Toronto's recent home form: DWDWD (draw, win, draw, win, draw).
Nashville attacker W. Madrigal did not dress for the September 4 match at New York City because of a lower-body injury.
His availability for Toronto remains unresolved, and a continued absence would reduce Nashville's attacking rotation options during this compressed road sequence. The official health report lists him as out with a lower-body issue, but no return timeline is established.
- Nashville’s official match recap states that Warren Madrigal did not dress because of a lower-body injury.
- Nashville’s official health report listed Warren Madrigal as out with a lower-body issue.
- W. Madrigal started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 17:18 · Europe/BucharestNashville SC match recapwww.nashvillesc.com · 4 Sep 2026Nashville SC health reportwww.nashvillesc.com · 4 Sep 2026
The teams have met four times in MLS since 2024.
Nashville won 1-0 at home on July 20, 2025, and 2-1 away on May 24, 2025. In 2024, Nashville won 2-1 away and lost 0-2 at home. This recent success may give Nashville confidence, but past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
- 2025-07-20: Nashville SC 1-0 Toronto FC (home win).
- 2025-05-24: Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC (away win).
- 2024-06-19: Toronto FC 1-2 Nashville SC (away win).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville's superior away defensive record and overall form, combined with Toronto's poor home win rate, make Nashville the likely winner.
- Nashville away record: 5W-3D-2L, 11 goals for, 5 against in 10 away matches
- Toronto home record: 3W-7D-2L, 23 goals for, 23 against in 12 home matches
- Nashville overall points 52 vs Toronto 25; Nashville goal difference +30 vs Toronto -6
- H2H last 5: Nashville won 3, Toronto won 1, 1 draw
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNashvilleEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's low home win rate and Nashville's strong away form make Nashville or Draw highly likely.
- Toronto home win rate only 25% (3 wins in 12 home matches)
- Nashville away loss rate only 20% (2 losses in 10 away matches)
- Nashville unbeaten in 8 of 10 away matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNashville or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nashville's first-half dominance is offset by Toronto's tendency to draw at halftime, making a draw the most likely first-half result.
- Toronto leading at half time in 13% of matches, trailing in 40%, drawing in 47%
- Nashville leading at half time in 47% of matches, trailing in 0%, drawing in 53%
- Nashville first half goals average 0.9, Toronto first half goals average 0.5
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nashville's stronger second-half scoring and Toronto's defensive frailty after halftime give Nashville an edge in the second half.
- Nashville second half goals average 1.0 per match, Toronto second half goals average 0.8 per match
- Nashville second half goals conceded average 0.6 per match (0.9 total - 0.3 first half)
- Toronto second half goals conceded average 1.1 per match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostNashvilleEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Nashville win is a plausible scenario given Toronto's first-half resilience and Nashville's second-half strength.
- Toronto draws at halftime in 47% of matches
- Nashville wins full time in 73% of matches (16 wins in 22)
- Nashville away wins in 50% of away matches (5 wins in 10)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/NashvilleEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville's strong defense and low-scoring away matches suggest a low-scoring game despite Toronto's leaky home defense.
- Nashville away matches average 1.6 total goals (11 for, 5 against in 10)
- Toronto home matches average 3.8 total goals (23 for, 23 against in 12)
- Nashville overall concedes 0.77 goals per match; Toronto scores 1.45 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville's strong away defense makes it likely that Toronto fails to score, leading to a 'No' on both teams scoring.
- Nashville kept clean sheets in 5 of 10 away matches
- Toronto failed to score in 3 of 12 home matches
- Nashville concedes 0.5 goals per away match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score fewer goals in the first half, with Nashville's strong first-half defense limiting total first-half goals.
- Toronto first half goals average 0.5 per match; Nashville first half goals average 0.9 per match
- Nashville first half goals conceded average 0.3 per match
- Toronto first half goals conceded average 0.7 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, and Toronto's defense weakens after halftime, making over 1.5 second-half goals plausible.
- Toronto second half goals average 0.8 per match (1.3 total - 0.5 first half)
- Nashville second half goals average 1.0 per match (1.9 total - 0.9 first half)
- Toronto second half goals conceded average 1.1 per match (1.8 total - 0.7 first half)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 10 total corners per match, making under 9.5 corners slightly more likely.
- Toronto average corners per match: 4.5, opponent corners: 5.5 (total 10.0)
- Nashville average corners per match: 5.1, opponent corners: 4.5 (total 9.6)
- Combined average total corners: 9.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average under 8.5 total shots on target per match, making under 8.5 likely.
- Toronto average shots on target per match: 3.6, opponent shots on target: 4.4 (total 8.0)
- Nashville average shots on target per match: 3.8, opponent shots on target: 3.3 (total 7.1)
- Combined average total shots on target: 7.5
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 3.6 total yellow cards per match, making over 3.5 cards slightly more likely.
- Toronto average yellow cards per match: 1.8, opponent yellow cards: 1.9 (total 3.7)
- Nashville average yellow cards per match: 2.1, opponent yellow cards: 1.5 (total 3.6)
- Combined average total yellow cards: 3.65
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 47% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; the edge is below the 5-point threshold for MEDIUM confidence.

Prediction history

Nashville has been highly reliable when projected to win

Nashville has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win predictions. The average estimated probability was 58.4%, with an expected 2.9 fulfilled predictions, so they outperformed expectation. All four fulfilled predictions came at home, while the only miss was away.

Recent evidence for Nashville5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer