New York City vs Toronto: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
NYCFC's dominant H2H record and strong home attack face a Toronto side struggling on the road and fatigued from a long travel sequence, making a home win likely.
- NYCFC won last 5 MLS H2H meetings, outscoring Toronto 12-4.
- NYCFC home record: 4-2-3, 22 goals scored in 9 matches (2.44 per game).
- Toronto away record: 1-2-5, only 6 goals scored in 8 away matches (0.75 per game).
- Toronto on 4th consecutive road match, extended travel cycle.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostNew York CityEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's poor away form and NYCFC's strong H2H dominance make a Toronto win unlikely, supporting a double chance for the home side.
- NYCFC unbeaten in last 5 MLS H2H (5 wins).
- Toronto away record: only 1 win in 8 away matches.
- NYCFC home record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses; 67% unbeaten at home.
- Toronto form: LDDLL in last 5, no wins in last 5 away.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNew York City or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NYCFC's superior first-half performance and Toronto's poor first-half away record give the hosts an edge to lead at the break.
- NYCFC led at halftime in 47% of matches, trailing only 27%.
- Toronto trailed at halftime in 40% of matches, led only 13%.
- NYCFC home first half record: led in 4 of 9, drew 4, lost 1.
- Toronto away first half record: led in 1 of 8, drew 4, lost 3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostNew York CityEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
NYCFC's ability to start strong and hold leads at home, combined with Toronto's poor away form, makes a home HT/FT double a plausible outcome.
- NYCFC led at halftime and won in 4 of 9 home matches.
- Toronto trailed at halftime and lost in 3 of 8 away matches.
- H2H: NYCFC led at halftime in 3 of last 5 MLS meetings and won all 5.
- NYCFC home win rate: 44%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableNew York City/New York CityEstimated chance35%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
NYCFC's high-scoring home games and Toronto's leaky away defense, combined with a history of high-scoring H2H encounters, point to over 2.5 goals.
- NYCFC home matches average 4.0 total goals (22 scored, 14 conceded in 9 games).
- Last 5 MLS H2H: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Toronto away matches: 6 of 8 had over 2.5 goals (13 conceded in 8 away).
- NYCFC scored 2+ in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to concede and score in their respective home/away splits, and H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends.
- NYCFC home: both teams scored in 7 of 9 matches.
- Toronto away: both teams scored in 5 of 8 matches.
- Last 5 MLS H2H: both teams scored in 3 of 5.
- Toronto scored in 6 of last 8 away matches despite poor results.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NYCFC's strong home scoring record and Toronto's defensive frailties on the road make it likely the hosts score at least twice.
- NYCFC scored 2+ in 7 of 9 home matches this season.
- NYCFC scored 2+ in 4 of last 5 MLS H2H meetings.
- Toronto conceded 2+ in 5 of 8 away matches.
- NYCFC home goals per game: 2.44.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostNew York City over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
NYCFC's tendency to start fast at home and Toronto's vulnerability early in away games suggest a lively first half with multiple goals.
- NYCFC first half goals at home: 1.1 average, scored in 7 of 9 home first halves.
- Toronto first half goals conceded away: 0.6 average, but conceded in 5 of 8 away first halves.
- Last 5 MLS H2H: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 first half goals.
- NYCFC led at halftime in 47% of matches overall.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Toronto's high corner count and NYCFC's tendency to concede corners at home suggest a match with double-digit corners.
- Toronto away matches average 10.1 total corners (5.8 for, 4.3 against).
- NYCFC home matches average 8.8 total corners (2.8 for, 6.0 against).
- Last 5 MLS H2H: 3 of 5 had over 9.5 corners.
- Toronto averages 5.8 corners per game overall, NYCFC concedes 6.0 corners at home.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate disciplinary records, and H2H history shows a tendency for cards, making over 4.5 cards a reasonable expectation.
- NYCFC home matches average 3.4 yellow cards (1.7 for, 1.7 against).
- Toronto away matches average 3.8 yellow cards (1.9 for, 1.9 against).
- Last 5 MLS H2H: 3 of 5 had over 4.5 cards.
- Both teams average over 1.7 yellow cards per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	New York City Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	17	7	4	6	30-23	25	WWLDW
12	Toronto	17	3	7	7	23-31	16	LDDLL

New York City1Toronto1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

New York City

New York City or Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

New York City or Draw

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

New York City

Toronto

Squad & Injuries

New York City

Toronto