Vasco da Gama5Coritiba0

HT 2–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 65%–35%ShotsShots 32–4On targetOn target 11–1CornersCorners 12–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 18:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Vasco are overpriced at 1.53 despite home advantage and relegation motivation; Coritiba's solid away form and the high draw frequency make the match closer than the market suggests.

The best value lies in over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.50 and both teams to score at 1.91, while the first-half draw at 2.40 offers a small edge.

Context

Vasco da Gama is 17th in Serie A with 28 points from 26 matches, sitting in the relegation zone.
Their home record is 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 16 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent home form shows losses to Santos (0-3 on August 16) and Palmeiras (1-4 on August 23), plus a draw with Fluminense (0-0 on August 1). This suggests they struggle to control matches at home, which could give Coritiba opportunities.
- Vasco da Gama lost 0-3 at home to Santos on 2026-08-16.
- Vasco da Gama lost 1-4 at home to Palmeiras on 2026-08-23.
- Vasco da Gama drew 0-0 at home with Fluminense on 2026-08-01.
Vasco sit 17th on 28 points from 26 matches, while Coritiba are eighth on 38 points from 27 matches.
The table positions make this a direct domestic priority for Vasco after their continental success. Coritiba can continue their push toward a secure total, so the league points are immediately consequential for both teams' incentives and match approach.
- CBF listed Vasco 17th on 28 points from 26 matches on 15 September.
- CBF listed Coritiba eighth on 38 points from 27 matches on the same update.
- The official match information confirms Vasco host Coritiba on 19 September at São Januário.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:22 · Europe/BucharestCBF: 2026 Série A standingswww.cbf.com.br · 15 Sep 2026Vasco da Gama: Vasco x Coritiba match informationvasco.com.br · 13 Sep 2026
Coritiba is 8th in Serie A with 38 points from 27 matches, pushing for a Copa Sudamericana spot.
Their away record is 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 18 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent away results include a 3-2 win at Remo on August 31 and a 1-1 draw at Sao Paulo on August 16. This shows they can compete on the road, which may trouble Vasco da Gama.
- Coritiba won 3-2 away at Remo on 2026-08-31.
- Coritiba drew 1-1 away at Sao Paulo on 2026-08-16.
- Coritiba's away record is 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses.
Vasco midfielder Cauan Barros was removed from the planned side just before the Santa Fe quarter-final on 15 September.
His status is a live central-midfield selection question for Coritiba. Santiago Sosa began in Barros's place, and with no subsequent availability update, Vasco may need a different central pairing or bench cover.
- Barros felt a physical problem in the warm-up before Vasco faced Santa Fe on 15 September.
- Vasco changed the starting side and Santiago Sosa began in Barros's place.
To watchSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 18:22 · Europe/BucharestCNN Brasil: late Vasco change after warm-up injurywww.cnnbrasil.com.br · 16 Sep 2026Lance!: Barros replaced after warm-up issuewww.lance.com.br · 15 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vasco's home advantage and urgent relegation motivation give them a slight edge, but Coritiba's solid away form keeps the match competitive.
- Vasco home record: 6W 2D 5L in 13 home matches, 16 goals scored, 18 conceded.
- Coritiba away record: 5W 4D 4L in 13 away matches, 18 goals scored, 19 conceded.
- Vasco recent home form: 3 wins in last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- Coritiba recent away form: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVasco da GamaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasco's home resilience and the high draw frequency in H2H support a double chance for the home side.
- Vasco home record: 6W 2D 5L, with 8 unbeaten home matches out of 13.
- Coritiba away record: 5W 4D 4L, with 9 unbeaten away matches out of 13.
- H2H last 5: Vasco 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss; at Vasco home: 1 win, 1 draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonVasco da Gama or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vasco's high first-half draw rate and Coritiba's mixed first-half form make a level first half likely.
- Vasco first half results: 27% leading, 7% trailing, 66% drawing.
- Coritiba first half results: 27% leading, 47% trailing, 26% drawing.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vasco's home second-half edge and motivation to escape relegation could see them win the second half.
- Vasco second half goal difference at home: +2 (11 scored, 9 conceded).
- Coritiba second half goal difference away: -1 (12 scored, 13 conceded).
- Vasco often push late at home when needing points.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonVasco da GamaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Vasco home win is a plausible scenario given their second-half home strength.
- Vasco first half draw rate: 66%.
- Vasco home win rate: 46%.
- Coritiba away first half draw rate: 38%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Vasco da GamaEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's high-scoring away games and Vasco's need for points should produce an open match with over 2.5 goals.
- Vasco average goals per match: 1.3 for, 0.8 against; total average 2.1.
- Coritiba average goals per match: 1.5 for, 1.8 against; total average 3.3.
- Coritiba away matches average 2.85 total goals (18 scored, 19 conceded in 13).
- Vasco home matches average 2.62 total goals (16 scored, 18 conceded in 13).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring and conceding records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Vasco scored in 10 of 13 home matches (77%).
- Coritiba scored in 10 of 13 away matches (77%).
- Vasco conceded in 10 of 13 home matches (77%).
- Coritiba conceded in 10 of 13 away matches (77%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's tendency to concede early goals away from home increases the chance of a first-half goal.
- Vasco first half goals average: 0.3 per match, conceded 0.1.
- Coritiba first half goals average: 0.5 per match, conceded 0.7.
- Coritiba away first half: scored in 6 of 13 away matches, conceded in 8.
- Vasco home first half: scored in 5 of 13 home matches, conceded in 4.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Vasco second half goals average: 1.0 per match (total 1.3 - first half 0.3).
- Coritiba second half goals average: 1.0 per match (total 1.5 - first half 0.5).
- Coritiba away second half: 12 goals scored in 13 away matches.
- Vasco home second half: 11 goals scored in 13 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined averages suggest a total around 9-10 corners.
- Vasco average corners per match: 4.7, opponent corners: 4.3.
- Coritiba average corners per match: 4.2, opponent corners: 5.9.
- Combined average corners in Vasco matches: 9.0.
- Combined average corners in Coritiba matches: 10.1.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages are close to 9, making over 8.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Vasco average shots on target: 4.9 per match, opponent shots on target: 3.9.
- Coritiba average shots on target: 3.7 per match, opponent shots on target: 5.1.
- Combined average shots on target in Vasco matches: 8.8.
- Combined average shots on target in Coritiba matches: 8.8.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages are around 4-5, making over 4.5 cards a plausible outcome.
- Vasco average yellow cards: 2.5 per match, opponent yellow cards: 2.1.
- Coritiba average yellow cards: 1.3 per match, opponent yellow cards: 2.7.
- Combined average cards in Vasco matches: 4.6.
- Combined average cards in Coritiba matches: 4.0.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 65% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and offers negative value.

Prediction history

Vasco da Gama has struggled to clear 4.5 cards in recent matches

Vasco da Gama has fulfilled this Over 4.5 cards projection in only 1 of 4 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 60.5%, but the actual fulfilment rate is just 25%, well below the expected 2.4 fulfilled predictions. Notably, all three home matches failed to reach 5 cards, while the single away match succeeded.

Recent evidence for Vasco da Gama4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie A