Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Vasco da Gama0RB Bragantino SP3

HT 0–1Sun 24 May 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 14–21On targetOn target 6–9CornersCorners 6–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 May 2026, 00:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Vasco's significant freshness advantage from resting nine starters, combined with strong home form, makes them likely to avoid defeat, but the best betting value is in both teams to score (Yes @ 1.88) and cards over 4.5 (@ 1.80).

Recent H2H away wins for Bragantino add risk to outright home win bets.

Context

On 19 May, Vasco left nine starters at home for the Sudamericana match against Olimpia, per ge.globo.
- Renato Gaúcho said the Brasileirão is the priority, shaping the week around the Bragantino fixture.
- Bragantino played a full-strength Sudamericana away game at River Plate on 20 May and have another continental match on 27 May.
Bragantino's official preview confirmed the team traveled to River Plate on 20 May seeking qualification.
- After facing Vasco on 24 May, Bragantino host Carabobo in the Sudamericana on 27 May.
- The club is in a 'qualification sandwich' with little rest between high-stakes matches.
Vasco home record in Serie A: 5 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses (12 goals scored, 9 conceded).
- Bragantino away record in Serie A: 3 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses (6 goals scored, 10 conceded).
- Vasco have lost only two of eight home league matches this season.
Last two H2H meetings at Vasco: 0-2 (June 2025) and 0-3 (October 2025) for Bragantino.
- Overall H2H in last five meetings: 2 Vasco wins, 2 Bragantino wins, 1 draw.
- Bragantino kept clean sheets in both away wins, showing defensive solidity in this fixture.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Vasco da Gama or Draw

1.28fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 78%

0.0ppshort

Vasco's strong home form (5W-1D-2L) and freshness edge from resting 9 starters, combined with Bragantino's travel fatigue and upcoming fixture congestion, make a home win or draw highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vasco's strong home form and significant freshness advantage from resting starters, combined with Bragantino's travel fatigue and upcoming fixture congestion, tilt the match in Vasco's favor despite recent H2H away wins.
- Vasco home record: 5W-1D-2L (12 goals for, 9 against) in 8 Serie A home matches this season.
- Bragantino away record: 3W-1D-4L (6 goals for, 10 against) in 8 away matches.
- Vasco rested 9 starters in midweek Sudamericana, prioritizing this league match; Bragantino played a high-stakes Sudamericana away game and has another continental match 3 days later.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 Vasco wins, 2 Bragantino wins, 1 draw; last meeting at Vasco was 0-2 Bragantino win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVasco da GamaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasco's solid home form and Bragantino's inconsistent away performances, coupled with Vasco's freshness edge, make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Vasco home record: 5W-1D-2L, losing only 2 of 8 home games.
- Bragantino away record: 3W-1D-4L, losing half of away games.
- Vasco's last 5 home matches across all competitions: 3W-1D-1L.
- Bragantino's last 5 away matches across all competitions: 2W-0D-3L.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostVasco da Gama or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at halftime in recent matches, and the H2H pattern shows mixed halftime results, making a draw the most likely first-half outcome.
- Vasco led at halftime in 40% of last 15 matches, trailed in 33%.
- Bragantino led at halftime in 20% of last 15 matches, trailed in 20%.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws at halftime, 2 away leads, 1 home lead.
- Vasco's last 5 home matches: 2 halftime leads, 2 draws, 1 trail.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A pattern of halftime draws followed by Vasco leveraging home advantage and freshness to secure a win is plausible, though not highly probable given Bragantino's resilience.
- Vasco drew at halftime in 27% of last 15 matches, won full-time in 33%.
- Bragantino drew at halftime in 60% of last 15 matches, lost full-time in 47%.
- Vasco's home matches: 2 of last 5 had draw at HT and Vasco win at FT.
- Bragantino's away matches: 2 of last 5 had draw at HT and Bragantino loss at FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/Vasco da GamaEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vasco's home games tend to be high-scoring, and Bragantino's away defense is leaky; combined with both teams' attacking intent, over 2.5 goals is likely.
- Vasco home matches average 2.63 total goals (12 scored, 9 conceded in 8 games).
- Bragantino away matches average 2.0 total goals (6 scored, 10 conceded in 8 games).
- Both teams scored in 5 of Vasco's last 6 home matches across all competitions.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vasco's home defense is not watertight, and Bragantino consistently finds the net away; with Vasco's attacking strength at home, both teams scoring is probable.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Vasco's last 6 home matches.
- Bragantino scored in 6 of their last 8 away matches across all competitions.
- Vasco conceded in 6 of 8 home league matches this season.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 2 of 5, but recent meetings had clean sheets.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a pattern of first-half goals in recent matches, making over 0.5 first-half goals a strong likelihood.
- Vasco averages 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Bragantino averages 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded in last 15 matches.
- In Vasco's last 5 home matches, first-half goals occurred in 4.
- In Bragantino's last 5 away matches, first-half goals occurred in 4.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as Vasco pushes at home and Bragantino's defense tires, leading to over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Vasco's last 5 home matches: second-half goals over 1.5 in 3 of 5.
- Bragantino's last 5 away matches: second-half goals over 1.5 in 3 of 5.
- Vasco scores 60% of home goals in second half; Bragantino concedes 60% of away goals in second half.
- Both teams have positive second-half goal differentials in recent form.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and their combined averages hover around the 9.5 line, making over 9.5 a borderline but plausible outcome.
- Vasco averages 5.0 corners per match overall, 5.5 at home in last 15.
- Bragantino averages 5.6 corners per match overall, 5.1 away in last 15.
- Combined average corners in Vasco home matches: 10.1; in Bragantino away matches: 10.7.
- Last 5 H2H: corner counts of 9, 11, 8, 7, 10 (average 9.0).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have above-average disciplinary records, and their matches consistently produce over 4.5 cards, especially with the competitive stakes of this fixture.
- Vasco averages 2.5 yellow cards per match, 2.8 at home in last 15.
- Bragantino averages 2.8 yellow cards per match, 3.1 away in last 15.
- Combined average cards in Vasco home matches: 5.3; in Bragantino away matches: 5.9.
- Last 5 H2H: card counts of 5, 4, 6, 5, 4 (average 4.8).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-3RB BragantinovVasco DA GamaOct 26, 2025SA

W0-2Vasco DA GamavRB BragantinoJun 1, 2025SA

D2-2Vasco DA GamavRB BragantinoAug 3, 2024SA

L2-1RB BragantinovVasco DA GamaApr 17, 2024SA

L2-1Vasco DA GamavRB BragantinoDec 7, 2023SA

Vasco da Gama: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Vasco da Gama	16	5	5	6	22-25	20	LWDLW
6	RB Bragantino SP Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	16	7	2	7	19-18	23	WLWLW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Vasco da Gama

L1-4InternacionalMay 16SA

D2-2PaysanduMay 13COP

W1-0Atletico ParanaenseMay 10SA

W2-1A. ItalianoMay 6CON

D2-2FlamengoMay 3SA

W3-0OlimpiaApr 30CON

L0-1CorinthiansApr 26SA

W2-0PaysanduApr 22COP

W2-1Sao PauloApr 18SA

L1-2A. ItalianoApr 15CON

D1-1RemoApr 11SA

D0-0Barracas CentralApr 7CON

L1-2BotafogoApr 5SA

D1-1CoritibaApr 1SA

W2-1GremioMar 22SA

RB Bragantino SP

W2-0VitoriaMay 17SA

L1-2MirassolMay 13COP

L0-2SantosMay 10SA

W6-0BloomingMay 8CON

W2-1Chapecoense-scMay 3SA

L0-1River PlateMay 1CON

L0-1PalmeirasApr 26SA

D1-1MirassolApr 23COP

W4-2RemoApr 19SA

W3-2BloomingApr 17CON

L1-2CruzeiroApr 12SA

L0-1Carabobo FCApr 10CON

W1-0MirassolApr 5SA

W3-0FlamengoApr 3SA

L1-2BotafogoMar 21SA

Squad & Injuries

Vasco da Gama

39 available

Attackers10

Midfielders13

Defenders13

Goalkeeper3

RB Bragantino SP

38 available

Attackers6

Midfielders16

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Over 4.5

Vasco da Gama or Draw

Vasco da Gama

Over 0.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Vasco da Gama

RB Bragantino SP

Squad & Injuries

Vasco da Gama

RB Bragantino SP