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Predictions graded

Flamengo3Coritiba0

HT 1–0Sat 30 May 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–282%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 21–10On targetOn target 9–2CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 May 2026, 18:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Flamengo’s dominant home H2H record is overshadowed by the risk of up to nine international absentees, making the 1.33 outright win price terrible value (55% model estimate).

The best edge is Draw-Flamengo in the Half-Time/Full-Time market at 3.80, with a +14-point value gap, reflecting Flamengo’s pattern of drawing at the break before winning. Avoid short favourites and wait for team news before betting.

Context

Jardim publicly asked the CBF to postpone the match on 21 May, citing four Brazil call-ups and up to nine internationals in total.
- The CBF intends to keep the 30 May date, meaning Flamengo will likely be without key players.
- No specific injury list is available, but the scale of potential absences is the single biggest variable for this match.
Last three home H2Hs: 3-0, 2-0, 2-0.
- Flamengo have won five of the last six meetings in all venues.
- Coritiba have not scored at the Maracanã in their last three visits.
Coritiba's last five away Serie A results: W, L, L, D, L (losses to Vitoria, Gremio, Atletico Paranaense).
- They scored in four of those five matches, including a 3-0 win at Santos.
- Their away defeats were mostly against strong sides, but they have been competitive.
Flamengo sit on 31 points from 16 league matches, with Palmeiras on 38 from 17.
- Coritiba are seventh in the table, defending a top-seven position.
- The match is a catch-up game, adding urgency for Flamengo to close the gap.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Flamengo or Draw

1.07fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 93.5%

0.0ppshort

Flamengo have not trailed at half-time in any of their last 5 home matches, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher-scoring affairs, and the H2H history supports goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown a tendency for early goals in recent matches, making a first-half goal probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's strong home form and dominant H2H at the Maracana give them a clear edge, though potential international absences introduce uncertainty.
- Flamengo have won 4 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- Coritiba have lost 3 of their last 5 away matches in Serie A.
- Flamengo have won the last 3 home H2Hs vs Coritiba by a combined 7-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's home resilience and Coritiba's inconsistent away form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Flamengo have lost only 1 of their last 7 home league matches.
- Coritiba have won only 2 of their last 7 away league matches.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in the last 5 H2Hs at home vs Coritiba.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFlamengo or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's home first-half performances have been solid, but Coritiba's resilience means a halftime lead is not a certainty.
- Flamengo led at halftime in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Coritiba trailed at halftime in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Flamengo's home first-half goal difference is +0.5 per match this season.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's strong first-half home form and Coritiba's difficulty in gaining halftime leads make a home lead or draw at the break very likely.
- Flamengo have not trailed at halftime in any of their last 5 home matches.
- Coritiba have led at halftime in only 1 of their last 5 away matches.
- Flamengo's home first-half record this season: 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFlamengo or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher-scoring affairs, and the H2H history supports goals.
- Flamengo's last 5 home matches averaged 3.0 total goals.
- Coritiba's last 5 away matches averaged 3.2 total goals.
- 3 of the last 5 H2Hs at Flamengo's home saw over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Coritiba's ability to find the net on the road and Flamengo's occasional defensive lapses at home suggest both teams can score.
- Coritiba have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Flamengo have conceded in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 H2Hs at Flamengo's home.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's home defensive record is not watertight, and Coritiba's away scoring consistency makes a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Flamengo have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches.
- Coritiba have failed to score in only 1 of their last 5 away matches.
- Flamengo's home clean sheet rate this season is 29% (2 of 7).
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCoritiba to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency for early goals in recent matches, making a first-half goal probable.
- Flamengo's last 5 home matches averaged 1.0 first-half goals.
- Coritiba's last 5 away matches averaged 1.2 first-half goals.
- Flamengo have scored in the first half in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in matches involving these teams have been productive, with both sides contributing to goals after the break.
- Flamengo's last 5 home matches averaged 2.0 second-half goals.
- Coritiba's last 5 away matches averaged 2.0 second-half goals.
- Flamengo have scored in the second half in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's home first-half defense is relatively strong, and historical H2H data shows rare first-half goals for both sides.
- Flamengo have conceded a first-half goal in only 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Coritiba have scored a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Both teams scored in the first half in only 1 of the last 5 H2Hs at Flamengo's home.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The corner averages for both teams in recent matches hover around the 9.5 line, making this a borderline call.
- Flamengo's last 5 home matches averaged 9.4 total corners.
- Coritiba's last 5 away matches averaged 9.6 total corners.
- Flamengo average 4.8 corners per match overall, Coritiba 3.3.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W2-3CoritibavFlamengoAug 20, 2023SA

W3-0FlamengovCoritibaApr 16, 2023SA

L1-0CoritibavFlamengoNov 6, 2022SA

W2-0FlamengovCoritibaJul 16, 2022SA

W2-0FlamengovCoritibaJun 17, 2021COP

Flamengo: 3 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Flamengo Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)	16	9	4	3	28-16	31	LDWDW
7	Coritiba Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)	16	6	5	5	21-19	23	WDLLW

8pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Flamengo

L0-3PalmeirasMay 24SA

W1-0Estudiantes L.P.May 21CON

D1-1Atletico ParanaenseMay 17SA

L0-2VitoriaMay 15COP

W1-0GremioMay 10SA

D2-2Vasco DA GamaMay 3SA

D1-1Estudiantes L.P.Apr 30CON

W4-0Atletico-MGApr 26SA

W2-1VitoriaApr 23COP

W2-0BahiaApr 19SA

W4-1Independiente MedellinApr 17CON

W2-1FluminenseApr 12SA

W2-0CuscoApr 9CON

W3-1SantosApr 5SA

L0-3RB BragantinoApr 3SA

Coritiba

W3-0SantosMay 17SA

L0-2SantosMay 13COP

D2-2InternacionalMay 9SA

L1-4VitoriaMay 2SA

L0-1GremioApr 26SA

D0-0SantosApr 22COP

W2-0Atletico-MGApr 19SA

D2-2BotafogoApr 12SA

D1-1FluminenseApr 4SA

D1-1Vasco DA GamaApr 1SA

L0-2Atletico ParanaenseMar 22SA

W1-0MirassolMar 18SA

W1-0RemoMar 15SA

W2-0CorinthiansMar 12SA

L0-1Sao PauloFeb 25SA

Squad & Injuries

Flamengo

50 available

Attackers11

Midfielders17

Defenders16

Goalkeeper6

Coritiba

46 available

Attackers10

Midfielders18

Defenders12

Goalkeeper6

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw at half-time / Flamengo at full-time

Yes

Flamengo or Draw

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Flamengo

Flamengo or Draw

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Flamengo

Coritiba

Squad & Injuries

Flamengo

Coritiba