Palmeiras4Vasco da Gama1

HT 0–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 13–12On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 17:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Palmeiras are strong favorites at home against a Vasco side winless away all season.

The best value is on Palmeiras to win (1.60, +9.5pts edge) and Both Teams to Score 'No' (1.85, +7.9pts), while avoiding the overpriced first-half goals market.

Context

Palmeiras won 1-0, 2-0, and 3-0 in the last three home H2H meetings.
- Vasco have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 away league matches.
- Palmeiras home goals against average is 0.73 per match.
Vasco away record: 0W 5D 5L in 10 matches.
- Vasco have scored 10 goals and conceded 17 away from home.
- Vasco have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 away league matches.
Palmeiras home record: 7W 3D 1L in 11 matches.
- Palmeiras have kept clean sheets in 5 of 11 home matches.
- Palmeiras average 1.55 goals scored per home match.
On 8 July, Rio justice maintained judicial intervention in Vasco SAF.
- Club president Pedrinho was kept away from SAF management.
- Football operations remain with the club's executives.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Palmeiras' dominant home form and Vasco's winless away record, combined with the home H2H clean-sheet streak, strongly support a home win.
- Palmeiras home record: 7W 3D 1L, 17 goals for, 8 against in 11 matches
- Vasco away record: 0W 5D 5L, 10 goals for, 17 against in 10 matches
- Palmeiras overall: 14W 6D 3L, 40 goals for, 19 against; Vasco overall: 5W 7D 10L, 23 goals for, 34 against
- Palmeiras have won last 3 home H2H vs Vasco without conceding (1-0, 2-0, 3-0)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPalmeirasEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vasco's away winless streak and Palmeiras' strong home unbeaten record make a home loss highly unlikely.
- Palmeiras home: 7W 3D 1L (91% unbeaten)
- Vasco away: 0W 5D 5L (0% win rate)
- Palmeiras have lost only 1 home league match this season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPalmeiras or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Palmeiras' superior home form and Vasco's away struggles make a multi-goal home win plausible, though not a majority outcome.
- Palmeiras home goal difference: +9 in 11 matches (avg +0.82)
- Vasco away goal difference: -7 in 10 matches (avg -0.7)
- Palmeiras won last 3 home H2H by 1, 2, and 3 goals
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonPalmeiras -1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Palmeiras' stronger first-half performance and Vasco's tendency to trail early support a home lead at the break.
- Palmeiras led at halftime in 33% of matches, trailed in only 7%
- Vasco trailed at halftime in 33% of matches, led in 27%
- Palmeiras average 1.0 first-half goals vs Vasco's 0.4
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostPalmeirasEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win with a halftime lead is a reasonable outcome given Palmeiras' dominance and Vasco's away struggles.
- Palmeiras home win rate: 64%
- Palmeiras led at halftime in 33% of matches and won 61% overall
- Vasco away win rate: 0%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostPalmeiras/PalmeirasEstimated chance40%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Palmeiras' scoring ability and Vasco's defensive frailty away from home suggest a decent chance of at least three goals, though the H2H trend tempers confidence.
- Palmeiras average 2.0 goals per match overall, 1.55 at home
- Vasco concede 1.4 goals per match overall, 1.7 away
- Palmeiras home matches average 2.27 total goals; Vasco away matches average 2.7 total goals
- Last 3 home H2H: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 (all under 2.5, but Palmeiras scored 6)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Vasco's away scoring struggles and Palmeiras' defensive solidity at home, especially in this fixture, make a clean sheet for the hosts likely.
- Palmeiras have kept clean sheets in last 3 home H2H vs Vasco
- Vasco have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 away league matches
- Palmeiras home goals against average: 0.73 per match
- Vasco away goals for average: 1.0 per match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern of Palmeiras shutting out Vasco at home, plus Vasco's away scoring woes, supports a home clean sheet.
- Palmeiras kept clean sheets in last 3 home H2H vs Vasco
- Palmeiras home clean sheet rate: 45% (5 of 11)
- Vasco failed to score in 4 of last 6 away league matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostVasco da Gama not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Palmeiras' tendency to score early and Vasco's occasional first-half concessions make a first-half goal likely.
- Palmeiras average 1.0 first-half goals per match overall
- Vasco concede 0.5 first-half goals per match overall
- Palmeiras led at halftime in 33% of matches; Vasco trailed at halftime in 33%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half could see goals as Palmeiras push for a result and Vasco chase the game, but the line is exactly at the combined average.
- Palmeiras average 1.0 second-half goals per match (2.0 total - 1.0 first half)
- Vasco average 0.5 second-half goals per match (0.9 total - 0.4 first half)
- Combined second-half average: 1.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, but the line is close to the combined average, making this a low-confidence lean.
- Palmeiras average 5.8 corners per match, concede 4.9
- Vasco average 5.1 corners per match, concede 5.3
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams: ~10.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match may see a few cards given Vasco's disciplinary record and the competitive nature, but the line is close to the average.
- Palmeiras average 1.6 yellow cards per match, Vasco 2.1
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.7, plus occasional red cards
- Vasco average 13.5 fouls per match, Palmeiras 11.9
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 47.6% vs our 48% estimate leaves no cushion; the market is efficient on this line.

Prediction history

Palmeiras has been inconsistent on over 9.5 corners

Palmeiras has fulfilled 5 of 10 over 9.5 corners predictions. The average estimated probability was 57.2%, but the current prediction of 52% is below the historical range of 55-62%. At home, Palmeiras has fulfilled 3 of 6 predictions, while away they have fulfilled 2 of 4.

Recent evidence for Palmeiras10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A