Sao Paulo1Coritiba1

HT 1–0Sun 16 Aug 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 01:57 · Europe/Bucharest

São Paulo are solid favorites at home, but the match-winner odds offer no value.

The standout betting edge is over 4.5 cards at 5.75, with a massive +42.6% edge based on both teams' disciplinary records. Additionally, over 9.5 corners and under 2.5 goals present smaller but positive value opportunities in what should be a tight, low-scoring affair.

Context

São Paulo's home record this season: 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses.
- Last 5 home matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.
- They have scored 15 goals and conceded 8 in 9 home games.
Coritiba's away record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses.
- They have scored 14 goals and conceded 16 in 11 away matches.
- In their last 5 away matches, they won 2, drew 1, and lost 2.
São Paulo won 1-0 at Coritiba on 25 February 2026.
- São Paulo's home record vs Coritiba: 13 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses in 27 matches.
- The last 5 H2H meetings: 2 São Paulo wins, 2 draws, 1 Coritiba win.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sao Paulo's strong home form (5 wins in 9) and Coritiba's negative away goal difference (-2) give the hosts a clear edge, reinforced by their recent H2H away win.
- Sao Paulo home record: 5W-2D-2L, 15 goals for, 8 against in 9 matches this season.
- Coritiba away record: 4W-3D-4L, 14 goals for, 16 against in 11 matches.
- Sao Paulo won the reverse fixture 1-0 away at Coritiba in February 2026.
- Sao Paulo's last 5 home matches: 2W-2D-1L, including a 2-0 win over Boston River.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSao PauloEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sao Paulo rarely lose at home (2 losses in 9), and Coritiba's away form is inconsistent, making a home win or draw highly probable.
- Sao Paulo home record: only 2 losses in 9 matches.
- Coritiba away record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses.
- Sao Paulo's last 5 home matches: 2W-2D-1L.
- H2H at Sao Paulo: 13 wins, 10 draws, 4 losses in 27 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSao Paulo or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates and both teams' tendency for tight starts suggest a draw at half-time is the most probable outcome.
- Sao Paulo led at half-time in 47% of matches overall, but only 2 of last 5 home matches.
- Coritiba trailed at half-time in 40% of matches overall, but 2 of last 5 away matches were level at half-time.
- Sao Paulo first half goals at home: 0.6 per game; Coritiba first half goals away: 0.5 per game.
- H2H: last meeting was 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sao Paulo tend to improve after the break at home, while Coritiba's away defense weakens late, giving the hosts a slight second-half edge.
- Sao Paulo scored 60% of their home goals in the second half (9 of 15).
- Coritiba conceded 62.5% of their away goals in the second half (10 of 16).
- Sao Paulo's last 5 home matches: won second half in 2, drew 2, lost 1.
- Coritiba's last 5 away matches: lost second half in 2, drew 2, won 1.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSao PauloEstimated chance45%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent home/away trends show a majority of low-scoring games, and Sao Paulo's solid home defense (0.89 goals conceded per game) supports under 2.5 goals.
- Sao Paulo home matches average 2.56 total goals (15 for, 8 against in 9 games).
- Coritiba away matches average 2.73 total goals (14 for, 16 against in 11 games).
- Sao Paulo's last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- Coritiba's last 5 away matches: 3 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sao Paulo's strong home defense and Coritiba's occasional away scoring struggles suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Sao Paulo kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches.
- Coritiba failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Sao Paulo home goals conceded: 8 in 9 matches (0.89 per game).
- Coritiba away goals scored: 14 in 11 matches (1.27 per game).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sao Paulo's recent home defensive solidity gives them a chance to shut out Coritiba, but Coritiba's away scoring rate makes it a low-confidence call.
- Sao Paulo kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches.
- Coritiba failed to score in 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Sao Paulo home goals conceded: 8 in 9 matches (0.89 per game).
- Coritiba away goals scored: 14 in 11 matches (1.27 per game).
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCoritiba not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Sao Paulo first half goals at home: 0.6 per game average overall, but 3 of last 5 home matches had 0 first half goals.
- Coritiba first half goals away: 0.5 per game average overall, with 3 of last 5 away matches having 0 first half goals.
- Sao Paulo first half goals conceded at home: 0.2 per game average.
- Coritiba first half goals conceded away: 0.6 per game average.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sao Paulo's high corner count at home and Coritiba's tendency to concede corners away push the total corners above 9.5.
- Sao Paulo average 6.7 corners per game overall, 7.4 at home in last 5 home matches.
- Coritiba average 3.5 corners per game overall, but concede 6.0 corners per away game on average.
- Sao Paulo's last 5 home matches: total corners averaged 10.2 per game.
- Coritiba's last 5 away matches: total corners averaged 9.8 per game.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sao Paulo consistently generate high corner numbers at home, and Coritiba's away defense concedes corners frequently.
- Sao Paulo average 6.7 corners per game overall, 7.4 in last 5 home matches.
- Coritiba concede an average of 6.0 corners per away game.
- Sao Paulo earned 7+ corners in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- Coritiba allowed 6+ corners in 3 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Cornersnot gradableSao Paulo over 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent card counts, especially Sao Paulo's home discipline record, point to a match with over 4.5 total cards.
- Sao Paulo average 2.5 yellow cards per game overall, 2.8 in last 5 home matches.
- Coritiba average 1.5 yellow cards per game overall, but 2.0 in last 5 away matches.
- Sao Paulo's last 5 home matches: total cards averaged 5.2 per game.
- Coritiba's last 5 away matches: total cards averaged 4.8 per game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 59% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Sao Paulo: Under 2.5 goals has been fulfilled in 2 of 4 recent matches

In 4 recent matches where Sao Paulo was projected for Under 2.5 goals, the prediction was fulfilled 2 times. The average estimated probability was 61.3%, with an expected 2.5 fulfilled predictions, so actual fulfilment slightly underperformed expectations. The current probability of 60% sits within the historical range of 60–65%, and home matches saw 1 fulfilment in 2 attempts, matching the away record.

Recent evidence for Sao Paulo4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·Serie A