Gremio RS1Vasco da Gama2

HT 1–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 14–17On targetOn target 4–5CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 00:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Grêmio are favoured at home against a Vasco side winless away, but value is limited.

The best edges are Grêmio or Draw double chance (+1.5 pts) and Under 2.5 goals (+2.2 pts), while Under 1.5 first-half goals is a clear avoid (-8.5 pts).

Context

Vasco da Gama sit 17th in Serie A with 25 points, level with the relegation line. Their away record is the worst in the league: 0 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses in 12 matches.
This away form is a major concern for Vasco. They have scored only 11 goals and conceded 22 on the road, showing they struggle to create chances and defend away from home. Gremio, by contrast, have won 7 of 12 home games and will expect to control this match. Vasco's inability to win away suggests they may struggle to get a result here, though their recent away draw against Bahia shows they can occasionally frustrate opponents.
- Vasco da Gama have 0 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses in 12 away league matches this season.
- They have scored 11 goals and conceded 22 away from home.
- Their most recent away league match was a 0-1 loss to Fluminense on 2026-09-06.
Grêmio host Vasco in round 27 with only a three-point gap between them and Vasco in the relegation zone.
The result can directly widen or close the immediate gap around the relegation line, increasing the match's incentive weight. A home win would move Grêmio six points clear of Vasco, while a defeat would drop them level on points and into the relegation conversation. This direct contest around the bottom of the table makes the fixture a high-stakes encounter for both sides.
- Ge described the match as a direct contest in the fight against relegation.
- The report placed Grêmio on 28 points, three ahead of Vasco, the first team in the relegation zone.
- The scheduled fixture is Grêmio versus Vasco on 12 September at Arena do Grêmio.
ReportedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 00:04 · Europe/BucharestGege.globo.com · 8 Sep 2026Gege.globo.com · 1 Sep 2026
Gremio are 15th in Serie A with 28 points, three points above the relegation zone. Their home record is 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in 12 matches.
Gremio's home form is a key advantage in this match. They have scored 21 goals and conceded 14 at home, showing they are effective in front of their own fans. Vasco's poor away record makes this contrast even sharper. Gremio will look to use their home strength to pull further away from the relegation battle, while Vasco need points desperately.
- Gremio have 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in 12 home league matches.
- They have scored 21 goals and conceded 14 at home.
- Their most recent home league match was a 3-1 win over Chapecoense on 2026-08-30.
Vasco da Gama are 17th in Serie A with 25 points from 25 matches, with a goal difference of -13. They are level on points with 18th-placed Internacional.
This match is crucial for Vasco's survival hopes. They are currently in the relegation zone and cannot afford to drop points, especially against a direct rival like Gremio. A loss could leave them further adrift, while a win would lift them out of the bottom four. The pressure to get a result may affect their approach, but their poor away form makes it a tough task.
- Vasco da Gama are 17th in Serie A with 25 points, level with the relegation line.
- They have a goal difference of -13, the joint-worst among teams in the bottom half.
- Their recent league form is LWLLD, with only one win in their last five matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.36fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to have low-scoring first halves, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gremio's strong home form and Vasco's winless away record, reinforced by H2H home dominance, make Gremio the likeliest winner.
- Gremio home record: 7W 3D 2L, 21 goals scored, 14 conceded in 12 home matches
- Vasco away record: 0W 5D 7L, 11 goals scored, 22 conceded in 12 away matches
- H2H last 5: home team won 4, draw 1; Gremio won both home meetings vs Vasco
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGremio RSEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gremio's strong home form and Vasco's poor away record make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Gremio home record: 7W 3D 2L, 21 goals scored, 14 conceded in 12 home matches
- Vasco away record: 0W 5D 7L, 11 goals scored, 22 conceded in 12 away matches
- H2H last 5: home team won 4, draw 1
BetBugs · Double ChancelostGremio RS or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half time level, making a first-half draw the most likely outcome.
- Gremio leading at half time in 27% of matches, trailing in 40%
- Vasco leading at half time in 20% of matches, trailing in 13%
- Both teams have high draw rates at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Gremio win is plausible given Gremio's home strength and Vasco's away struggles.
- Gremio home record: 7W 3D 2L, with several wins after level first halves
- Vasco away record: 0W 5D 7L, often drawing at half time
- H2H: Gremio won both home meetings vs Vasco
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Gremio RSEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates, and the high-stakes relegation context may lead to a cautious match, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Gremio home average: 1.75 goals scored, 1.17 conceded per home match
- Vasco away average: 0.92 goals scored, 1.83 conceded per away match
- Combined average total goals in Gremio home and Vasco away matches: 2.92
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding, and H2H history supports both teams scoring.
- Gremio home: scored in 10 of 12 home matches, conceded in 8 of 12
- Vasco away: scored in 7 of 12 away matches, conceded in 10 of 12
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to have low-scoring first halves, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Gremio first half goals average: 0.7, first half goals conceded average: 0.9
- Vasco first half goals average: 0.3, first half goals conceded average: 0.2
- Combined first half average total goals: 1.05
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Slightly higher scoring rates in second halves for both teams, but confidence is low due to limited data.
- Gremio second half goals average: 0.6, second half goals conceded average: 0.4
- Vasco second half goals average: 0.9, second half goals conceded average: 0.8
- Combined second half average total goals: 1.35
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 corners each, suggesting a total near 10, but confidence is low due to variability.
- Gremio average corners: 5.2, opponent corners: 6.3
- Vasco average corners: 5.0, opponent corners: 3.9
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams: 10.2
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4-5 shots on target, making over 8.5 a coin flip.
- Gremio average shots on target: 4.1, opponent shots on target: 4.5
- Vasco average shots on target: 4.8, opponent shots on target: 3.9
- Combined average shots on target: 8.9
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 2-3 yellow cards each, and the high-stakes relegation match may increase card count.
- Gremio average yellow cards: 2.8, opponent yellow cards: 2.3
- Vasco average yellow cards: 2.3, opponent yellow cards: 2.1
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.9
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Gremio RS has been moderately reliable in Over 4.5 cards projections

Gremio RS has fulfilled 2 of 4 Over 4.5 cards predictions, with an average estimated probability of 56.8% and an expected fulfilment of 2.3. The matched predictions had a slightly lower average probability (55%) than the missed ones (58.5%), suggesting that higher confidence did not lead to better outcomes. The current prediction of 60% is within the historical range of 52% to 65%.

Recent evidence for Gremio RS4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Serie A