TPS Turku0Ilves3

HT 0–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 28–13On targetOn target 8–6CornersCorners 9–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 20:34 · Europe/Bucharest

TPS's strong home form and Ilves's poor away record make TPS or Draw (1.50) a high-value bet with an 8-point edge.

Under 2.5 goals (2.15) also offers value at +13.5 points, but TPS's four enforced absences and touchline ban add risk, so avoid the match winner market.

Context

TPS Turku are 8th in the Veikkausliiga with 31 points, while Ilves are 9th with 25 points. Both teams are in the relegation group.
TPS Turku's home record is 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in 11 matches, with 18 goals scored and 9 conceded. Ilves' away record is 1 win, 3 draws, and 7 losses in 11 matches, with 17 goals scored and 26 conceded. This suggests TPS Turku are more comfortable at home, while Ilves have struggled on the road. However, Ilves' away goals scored is similar to TPS Turku's home goals scored, so they can still threaten.
- TPS Turku home record: 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 11 matches.
- Ilves away record: 1 win, 3 draws, 7 losses in 11 matches.
- TPS Turku have scored 18 goals and conceded 9 at home; Ilves have scored 17 and conceded 26 away.
TPS will be without Charlemagne Azongnitode and Lasse Ikonen after both received their fourth cautions of the season at IFK Mariehamn on 12 September.
The confirmed one-match bans remove a defensive and a midfield option from TPS's matchday squad. The club has not named direct replacements, so the coaching staff must adjust the starting eleven and bench without two players who had been part of the recent selection picture. This reduces TPS's flexibility in covering defensive and central midfield roles against Ilves.
- TPS stated that Azongnitode and Ikonen received their fourth cautions of the season on 12 September.
- TPS confirmed that both players will miss the next match against Ilves.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 20:32 · Europe/BucharestFC TPS match report: IFK Mariehamn 1–0 TPSfc.tps.fi · 12 Sep 2026
Eetu Turkki and Nils Veinbergs are on loan at TPS from Ilves and are ineligible for this fixture under competition rules.
TPS must plan without two players who would otherwise be available for selection. Turkki and Veinbergs have been part of the squad, and their absence removes options in defensive and attacking areas. The club has not specified replacements, leaving TPS to cover those roles with other squad members for this match.
- TPS confirmed that Turkki and Veinbergs are on loan from Ilves.
- TPS stated that competition rules make both players ineligible for this fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 20:32 · Europe/BucharestFC TPS match report: IFK Mariehamn 1–0 TPSfc.tps.fi · 12 Sep 2026
The teams have met three times in 2026, with Ilves winning the most recent league match and TPS Turku winning the earlier league match.
In the last league meeting on 20 July 2026, Ilves won 3-1 away at TPS Turku. Earlier in the league, TPS Turku won 1-0 at Ilves on 13 June 2026. The head-to-head is balanced, but Ilves' recent away win suggests they can perform at this venue. However, that match was two months ago, and current form may differ.
- 2026-07-20: TPS Turku 1-3 Ilves (Veikkausliiga).
- 2026-06-13: Ilves 1-0 TPS Turku (Veikkausliiga).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
TPS's strong home form and Ilves's poor away record give the hosts a clear structural edge, reinforced by TPS's recent unbeaten run.
- TPS home record: 7W 2D 2L, 18 goals for, 9 against in 11 home matches
- Ilves away record: 1W 3D 7L, 17 goals for, 26 against in 11 away matches
- TPS last 5 form: DDWDW (unbeaten in 5); Ilves last 5 form: LLLWL
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTPS TurkuEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
TPS's strong home form and Ilves's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely, with TPS's recent unbeaten run adding confidence.
- TPS home record: 9 unbeaten in 11 home matches (7W 2D)
- Ilves away record: only 1 win in 11 away matches
- TPS last 5 form: DDWDW (unbeaten in 5)
BetBugs · Double ChancelostTPS Turku or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of drawing at half-time, and TPS's recent matches have been level at the break, making a first-half draw likely.
- TPS first half record: 20% leading, 47% trailing, 33% drawing
- Ilves first half record: 27% leading, 27% trailing, 46% drawing
- TPS last 5 matches: 3 draws at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
TPS's home advantage and Ilves's away struggles may become more pronounced in the second half as the match opens up.
- TPS home second half record: 7W 2D 2L (same as full match)
- Ilves away second half record: 1W 3D 7L (same as full match)
- TPS last 5 matches: 2 second-half wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostTPS TurkuEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a TPS home win is a plausible scenario given TPS's home strength and Ilves's away weakness.
- TPS first half draw rate: 33%
- TPS home win rate: 64%
- Ilves away loss rate: 64%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/TPS TurkuEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown consistent first-half dominance, making it unlikely that either side wins both halves.
- TPS first half win rate: 20%
- Ilves first half win rate: 27%
- TPS last 5 matches: no match where they won both halves
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
TPS rarely leads at half-time, and Ilves has a slightly higher first-half win rate, making a draw or Ilves lead at the break likely.
- TPS first half win rate: 20%
- Ilves first half win rate: 27%
- TPS last 5 matches: 3 draws at half-time
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or IlvesEstimated chance60%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
TPS's home matches tend to be low-scoring, and their recent form shows a pattern of tight games, suggesting under 2.5 goals.
- TPS home matches average 2.45 total goals (18 for, 9 against in 11)
- Ilves away matches average 3.91 total goals (17 for, 26 against in 11)
- TPS last 5 matches: 4 had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
TPS's strong home defense and Ilves's inconsistent away scoring make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- TPS home matches: 6 clean sheets in 11 (55%)
- Ilves away matches: failed to score in 4 of 11 (36%)
- TPS last 5 matches: 3 clean sheets
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring averages, and TPS's recent matches have been tight early, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.
- TPS first half goals average: 0.6 for, 0.6 against
- Ilves first half goals average: 0.5 for, 0.5 against
- TPS last 5 matches: 4 had 0 or 1 first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as fatigue sets in, and both teams' second-half scoring rates are slightly higher than first halves.
- TPS second half goals average: 0.5 for, 0.5 against (total 1.0)
- Ilves second half goals average: 0.8 for, 0.5 against (total 1.3)
- TPS last 5 matches: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and TPS's recent matches have been tight early, making it unlikely both teams score in the first half.
- TPS first half goals: 0.6 for, 0.6 against
- Ilves first half goals: 0.5 for, 0.5 against
- TPS last 5 matches: 4 had no first-half goals for both teams
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance65%