HNK Rijeka11 – 0Ilves0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

HNK Rijeka's superior form and defensive solidity (0.5 goals conceded per game) give them a strong edge, especially at home where they have been dominant.

• HNK Rijeka won 11 of last 15 matches (73%), with 5 wins in last 5.
• Ilves lost 5 of last 15 matches (33%), including 3 losses in last 5.
• HNK Rijeka averaged 1.5 goals scored vs 0.5 conceded over last 15; Ilves averaged 1.7 scored vs 1.4 conceded.
• HNK Rijeka led at halftime in 53% of matches; Ilves led in only 33%.

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHNK RijekaEstimated chance65%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

HNK Rijeka's low loss rate and strong home form make a home win or draw highly likely against an inconsistent Ilves side.

• HNK Rijeka lost only 2 of last 15 matches (13%).
• Ilves won only 6 of last 15 matches (40%).
• HNK Rijeka's home record in last 15: 7 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses (from available data).
• Ilves' away record in last 15: 2 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses (from available data).

BetBugs · Double ChancewonHNK Rijeka or DrawEstimated chance85%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

HNK Rijeka's tendency to lead at halftime and Ilves' vulnerability early give the home side a slight edge, but the low first-half scoring makes this less certain.

• HNK Rijeka led at halftime in 53% of last 15 matches.
• Ilves trailed at halftime in 33% of last 15 matches.
• HNK Rijeka's first-half goal difference: +0.6 per game.
• Ilves' first-half goal difference: 0.0 per game.

BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonHNK RijekaEstimated chance45%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

HNK Rijeka's strong defense (0.5 goals conceded per game) suggests a low-scoring match, despite Ilves' slightly higher scoring average.

• HNK Rijeka's last 15 matches averaged 2.0 total goals (1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded).
• Ilves' last 15 matches averaged 3.1 total goals (1.7 scored, 1.4 conceded).
• HNK Rijeka kept 10 clean sheets in last 15 matches.
• Ilves failed to score in 4 of last 15 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

HNK Rijeka's defensive record is formidable, and Ilves may struggle to break them down, making a clean sheet for the home side likely.

• HNK Rijeka kept a clean sheet in 10 of last 15 matches (67%).
• Ilves failed to score in 4 of last 15 matches (27%).
• HNK Rijeka conceded only 0.5 goals per game over last 15.
• Ilves scored in 11 of last 15 matches, but against weaker defenses.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

HNK Rijeka's defensive consistency and Ilves' occasional scoring struggles point to a home clean sheet.

• HNK Rijeka kept a clean sheet in 10 of last 15 matches (67%).
• At home, HNK Rijeka kept clean sheets in 5 of 9 matches with data.
• Ilves scored only 1.4 goals per game on average, and were shut out 4 times in last 15.
• HNK Rijeka conceded only 0.5 goals per game overall.

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIlves not to scoreEstimated chance60%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams tend to have low-scoring first halves, with HNK Rijeka especially stingy, making under 1.5 first-half goals probable.

• HNK Rijeka averaged 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.1 conceded in last 15.
• Ilves averaged 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded in last 15.
• HNK Rijeka's first halves: 8 of 15 had 0 or 1 goal.
• Ilves' first halves: 9 of 15 had 0 or 1 goal.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

HNK Rijeka's high corner count could push the total over 8.5, but Ilves' low corner numbers and limited data make this speculative.

• HNK Rijeka averaged 7.6 corners per game in last 15 (data available for 9 matches).
• Ilves averaged 3.8 corners per game in last 15 (data available for 5 matches).
• Combined average from available data: 11.4 corners per game.
• HNK Rijeka's matches averaged 9.1 total corners (from 9 matches with opponent data).