Ilves11 – 0FC Lahti0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Ilves' strong home form and Lahti's poor away record, combined with Ilves' historical dominance at home in this fixture, give them a clear edge despite the recent 5-0 loss to Lahti.

• Ilves home record this season: 4W-1D-2L, 13 goals scored, 8 conceded in 7 matches.
• FC Lahti away record: 2W-1D-4L, 6 goals scored, 7 conceded in 7 matches.
• H2H at Ilves in league since 2019: Ilves 5W-1D-0L, Lahti have not won an away league game there since 2018.
• Ilves last 5 home matches (all comps): 4W-1L, scoring 14 goals.

BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlvesEstimated chance45%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of Ilves' solid home form and Lahti's historical struggles at this venue makes an Ilves win or draw highly probable.

• Ilves have lost only 2 of 7 home league games this season.
• FC Lahti have won only 2 of 7 away league games.
• H2H at Ilves: Lahti have not won in last 6 league visits (Ilves 5W-1D).
• Ilves have avoided defeat in 5 of last 7 home matches across all competitions.

BetBugs · Double ChancewonIlves or DrawEstimated chance75%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Ilves' home advantage and historical first-half dominance in this fixture give them a slight edge to lead at the break.

• Ilves have led at halftime in 33% of their matches overall, but at home they have led in 3 of 7 league games (43%).
• FC Lahti have trailed at halftime in only 20% of matches overall, but away they have trailed in 3 of 7 (43%).
• H2H at Ilves: Ilves have led at halftime in 3 of last 5 home league meetings.
• Ilves scored first-half goals in 4 of last 5 home matches.

BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonIlvesEstimated chance40%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While not highly likely, Ilves' ability to start strong and maintain pressure at home could lead to a wire-to-wire victory.

• Ilves have won both halves in 2 of 7 home league games this season.
• FC Lahti have lost both halves in 2 of 7 away league games.
• H2H at Ilves: Ilves have achieved HT/FT win in 2 of last 5 home league meetings.
• Ilves have scored in both halves in 3 of last 5 home matches.

BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableIlves/IlvesEstimated chance30%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Limited corner data makes this speculative, but both teams' averages suggest a total around 9-10 corners is plausible.

• Ilves average 4.0 corners per game overall, but at home in matches with data they average 4.0 (limited data).
• FC Lahti average 5.6 corners per game overall, and away they average 5.7 in matches with data.
• Combined average corners in Ilves home games with data: 8.0, but sample size is small.
• Last H2H with corner data (Ilves 5-1 Lahti in 2024? Not in recent data, but overall both teams tend to earn corners).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Lahti's higher card count away from home and the competitive nature of the match could push the total cards over 3.5.

• Ilves average 1.2 yellow cards per game, but at home they average 1.0 in matches with data.
• FC Lahti average 2.0 yellow cards per game, and away they average 2.3 in matches with data.
• Combined average cards in Ilves home games: 2.0, but Lahti's away matches average 3.3 cards.
• Recent H2H with card data not available, but both teams are mid-table with competitive stakes.