IFK Mariehamn1TPS Turku0

HT 1–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 12–21On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 1–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 00:10 · Europe/Bucharest

The strongest betting edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.15 (model 60% vs implied 46.5%), driven by both teams' low scoring and TPS's poor away attack.

Backing TPS Turku or draw at 1.57 also offers value, but avoid IFK Mariehamn at 2.30 due to their poor home form and defensive suspension.

Context

IFK Mariehamn are in the Veikkausliiga relegation group and have struggled this season.
They have lost 14 of 22 matches and conceded 43 goals, the most in the league. Their home record is also poor with only two wins in 11 games. This suggests they may struggle to contain TPS Turku's attack.
- IFK Mariehamn are 12th with 14 points from 22 matches.
- They have a goal difference of -26, the worst in the league.
- They have lost 14 matches, more than any other team.
IFK Mariehamn defender F. Gyamfi started all five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His suspension removes a regular centre-back option and forces a defensive reshuffle. The absence of a confirmed replacement in the evidence leaves the exact back-line adjustment uncertain.
- Veikkausliiga states that Gyamfi is definitely out of the TPS match because his yellow-card account became full on Tuesday.
- Gyamfi was booked in IFK Mariehamn’s 8 September match at FC Lahti.
- F. Gyamfi started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 00:08 · Europe/BucharestVeikkausliiga injury updatewww.veikkausliiga.com · 9 Sep 2026IFK Mariehamn match report: FC Lahti 2-1 IFKwww.ifkfotboll.ax · 8 Sep 2026
TPS Turku are 8th in the Veikkausliiga and have a better record than IFK Mariehamn.
In that match, TPS Turku scored three goals and kept a clean sheet, while IFK Mariehamn failed to register a shot on target. This suggests TPS Turku have a tactical advantage in this fixture.
- On 2026-08-01, TPS Turku beat IFK Mariehamn 3-0.
- IFK Mariehamn had 0 shots on target in that match.
- TPS Turku had 4 shots on target and 52% possession.
TPS Turku striker K. Visser started three of the five recent fixtures with available lineups.
He serves the second match of a two-game ban, so TPS must again field an attack without him. N. Veinbergs started in his place in two recent matches, but the evidence does not confirm who will lead the line here.
- TPS’s official SJK squad announcement listed Visser as suspended after a red card.
- The same announcement specified a two-match suspension.
- K. Visser started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- N. Veinbergs started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when K. Visser did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Sep 2026, 00:08 · Europe/BucharestTPS squad announcement: SJKfc.tps.fi · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
TPS Turku's superior overall record and recent H2H win give them an edge, but their poor away form and IFK's desperation at home keep the probability moderate.
- TPS Turku away record: 1W 5D 5L in 11 away matches, but only 10 goals scored and 14 conceded.
- IFK Mariehamn home record: 2W 4D 5L in 11 home matches, 9 goals scored and 17 conceded.
- H2H last meeting: TPS Turku won 3-0 at home against IFK Mariehamn on 2026-08-01.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTPS TurkuEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given IFK's poor overall and home form, TPS Turku or draw is the safer outcome, supported by the away side's stronger season record.
- IFK Mariehamn have lost 14 of 22 league matches this season.
- TPS Turku have only lost 7 of 22 league matches.
- IFK Mariehamn home win rate is only 18% (2/11).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or TPS TurkuEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at half-time, making a draw the most likely first-half result.
- IFK Mariehamn led at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- TPS Turku led at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- Both teams have a high percentage of draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
TPS Turku may edge the second half if IFK tire or push forward, but the low confidence reflects the uncertainty of second-half outcomes.
- TPS Turku have a better second-half goal difference than IFK Mariehamn.
- IFK Mariehamn often concede late goals due to defensive lapses.
- TPS Turku's away second-half record is slightly better than their first-half record.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostTPS TurkuEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a TPS win is a plausible scenario given TPS's second-half strength and IFK's tendency to fade.
- IFK Mariehamn have drawn at half-time in 40% of matches.
- TPS Turku have won 36% of matches overall.
- H2H last meeting: TPS won 3-0, but earlier meetings were draws.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/TPS TurkuEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest scoring records, and TPS's away matches tend to be low-scoring, making under 2.5 goals likely.
- IFK Mariehamn average 0.9 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match.
- TPS Turku average 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 2.1 (IFK) + 2.2 (TPS) = 4.3, but recent form suggests lower scoring.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IFK's scoring struggles and TPS's decent defensive record away from home suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- IFK Mariehamn failed to score in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- TPS Turku kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- TPS Turku away matches average only 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- IFK Mariehamn average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- TPS Turku average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Combined first-half average: 0.9 + 1.1 = 2.0, but many matches have 0 or 1 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With IFK likely pushing for a result and TPS capable of countering, the second half could see more goals, but confidence is low due to inconsistent patterns.
- IFK Mariehamn concede more goals in the second half (average 1.2 second-half goals against).
- TPS Turku score more in the second half (average 0.6 second-half goals for).
- Recent matches show late goals, especially when IFK chase the game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and TPS's away matches tend to have fewer corners, making under 9.5 corners plausible.
- IFK Mariehamn average 5.9 corners per match.
- TPS Turku average 3.1 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 9.0, but TPS away matches often have fewer corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low shots on target averages, making under 8.5 shots on target likely.
- IFK Mariehamn average 2.4 shots on target per match.
- TPS Turku average 3.3 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target: 5.7, well below 8.5.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low card counts, making under 3.5 total cards likely.
- IFK Mariehamn average 1.9 yellow cards per match.
- TPS Turku average 0.9 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards: 2.8, below 3.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%