VeikkausliigaFull time

Predictions graded

IF Gnistan1TPS Turku1

HT 0–0Mon 31 Aug 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–722%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 16:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Gnistan are favoured at home against a TPS side missing suspended attacker Kian Visser, but the market has already priced in the home advantage, leaving no value on match winner, double chance, or over 2.5 goals.

The best approach is to avoid these popular markets and consider live betting or alternative props, as the data suggests a closer game than the odds indicate.

Context

The final regular-season round gives both teams active incentives. Gnistan have secured a Championship Round place but need points for their European-place position. TPS begin seventh, three points behind VPS and AC Oulu in the final two top-six places, with all six final-round fixtures kicking off together.
Gnistan are protecting a high carried-over position while TPS must pursue a top-six outcome that also depends on parallel results. This shared need for points should keep both teams committed to attacking intent, though TPS's away struggles and Gnistan's home strength suggest the hosts are better placed to convert that intent.
- TPS's 30 August preview listed Gnistan third on 35 points and already assured of a Championship Round place.
- The same official table listed TPS seventh on 30 points, behind VPS and AC Oulu on 33.
- The final regular-season round consists of six simultaneous matches on 31 August.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 16:02 · Europe/BucharestFC TPSfc.tps.fi · 30 Aug 2026IF Gnistangnistan.fi · 30 Aug 2026
TPS Turku are 7th in the Veikkausliiga with 30 points from 21 matches.
Their away record is 1 win, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with 9 goals scored and 13 conceded. This poor away form contrasts with IF Gnistan's solid home record of 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. TPS may find it difficult to create chances on the road.
- TPS Turku have won only 1 of 10 away league matches this season.
- They have scored 9 goals and conceded 13 in those away games.
Gnistan's goalkeeper plans change after Matej Jurička's injury. Gnistan signed Otso Virtanen on loan after Jurička's injury. The club said the move was a rapid response and intended Virtanen to form a goalkeeper pair with Oskar Lyberopoulos for the run-in.
Jurička's absence and the late loan leave Gnistan with a changed goalkeeper selection and defensive-organisational decision for this match. Virtanen's quick adaptation alongside Lyberopoulos will be tested, but the club's stated plan suggests they have a clear pairing in mind for the run-in.
- IF Gnistan announced Virtanen's season-long loan from Ilves on 25 August.
- Sporting director Jarkko Jokiranta said the club reacted quickly after Jurička's injury and sought a goalkeeper able to adapt rapidly alongside Lyberopoulos.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 16:02 · Europe/BucharestIF Gnistangnistan.fi · 25 Aug 2026
IF Gnistan are 3rd in the Veikkausliiga with 35 points.
At home, they have 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, scoring 20 goals and conceding 16. Their attacking output at home is higher than their overall average, which could trouble TPS Turku's defense.
- IF Gnistan have won 6 of 10 home league matches this season.
- They have scored 20 goals in those home games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

IF Gnistan or Draw

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Gnistan's home strength and TPS's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely, but the market price already reflects this with an implied probability above our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in recent meetings and Gnistan concede regularly at home, but the odds already price BTTS as very likely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Gnistan's home matches average 3.6 total goals, but the market has already priced Over 2.5 as the clear favourite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gnistan's strong home form and TPS's poor away record, combined with Gnistan's motivation to secure European-place points, give the home side a moderate edge.
- Gnistan home record: 6W 1D 3L, 20 goals scored, 16 conceded in 10 home matches
- TPS away record: 1W 4D 5L, 9 goals scored, 13 conceded in 10 away matches
- Gnistan last 5 form: WWDLW (10 points from 15), TPS last 5: DWDWL (8 points from 15)
- H2H last 5: Gnistan 2W, TPS 2W, 1D; most recent league meeting 1-1 draw
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIF GnistanEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gnistan's home advantage and TPS's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely, supported by Gnistan's stronger recent form.
- Gnistan home record: 6W 1D 3L, 20 goals scored, 16 conceded in 10 home matches
- TPS away record: 1W 4D 5L, 9 goals scored, 13 conceded in 10 away matches
- Gnistan last 5 form: WWDLW (10 points from 15), TPS last 5: DWDWL (8 points from 15)
- H2H last 5: Gnistan 2W, TPS 2W, 1D; most recent league meeting 1-1 draw
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIF Gnistan or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gnistan's tendency to lead at half time and TPS's frequent first-half deficits give the home side a slight edge, though uncertainty remains.
- Gnistan leading at half time in 47% of matches, trailing in 20%
- TPS trailing at half time in 53% of matches, leading in 20%
- Gnistan first half goals: 0.9 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.6 per match
- TPS first half goals: 0.7 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.7 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostIF GnistanEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gnistan's stronger overall scoring and home advantage may translate into a second-half edge, but the low confidence reflects variability.
- Gnistan average second half goals: 1.1 (2.0 total - 0.9 first half)
- TPS average second half goals: 0.5 (1.2 total - 0.7 first half)
- Gnistan home matches: 20 goals scored, 16 conceded in 10 games
- TPS away matches: 9 goals scored, 13 conceded in 10 games
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostIF GnistanEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Gnistan lead at half time and full time is possible given their home strength and TPS's away struggles, but the probability is modest.
- Gnistan leading at half time in 47% of matches, trailing in 20%
- TPS trailing at half time in 53% of matches, leading in 20%
- Gnistan home record: 6W 1D 3L
- TPS away record: 1W 4D 5L
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostIF Gnistan/IF GnistanEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gnistan's high-scoring home games and TPS's defensive vulnerabilities on the road suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.
- Gnistan average goals per match: 2.0 for, 1.1 against (last 15)
- TPS average goals per match: 1.2 for, 1.1 against (last 15)
- Gnistan home matches: 20 goals scored, 16 conceded in 10 games (avg 3.6 total goals)
- TPS away matches: 9 goals scored, 13 conceded in 10 games (avg 2.2 total goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score, with Gnistan conceding regularly at home and TPS finding the net in most away games.
- Gnistan average goals conceded: 1.1 per match (last 15)
- TPS average goals scored: 1.2 per match (last 15)
- Gnistan home matches: 20 goals scored, 16 conceded in 10 games
- TPS away matches: 9 goals scored, 13 conceded in 10 games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, with Gnistan's aggressive start likely to produce early goals.
- Gnistan first half goals: 0.9 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.6 per match (last 15)
- TPS first half goals: 0.7 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.7 per match (last 15)
- Gnistan leading at half time in 47% of matches, trailing in 20%
- TPS trailing at half time in 53% of matches, leading in 20%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are plausible given both teams' scoring rates, but the probability is lower due to potential game management.
- Gnistan average total goals per match: 3.1 (2.0 for, 1.1 against)
- TPS average total goals per match: 2.3 (1.2 for, 1.1 against)
- Gnistan home matches: 20 goals scored, 16 conceded in 10 games (avg 3.6 total goals)
- TPS away matches: 9 goals scored, 13 conceded in 10 games (avg 2.2 total goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest around 9-10 corners per match, making over 9.5 a near coin-flip.
- Gnistan average corners: 3.3 per match, opponent corners: 5.5 per match (last 15)
- TPS average corners: 2.8 per match, opponent corners: 4.0 per match (last 15)
- Gnistan home matches: average corners 3.3, opponent corners 5.5
- TPS away matches: average corners 2.8, opponent corners 4.0
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target averages are around 8-9, making over 8.5 a marginal call.
- Gnistan average shots on target: 4.9 per match, opponent shots on target: 4.1 per match (last 15)
- TPS average shots on target: 3.5 per match, opponent shots on target: 3.9 per match (last 15)
- Gnistan home matches: average shots on target 4.9, opponent 4.1
- TPS away matches: average shots on target 3.5, opponent 3.9
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card counts are relatively low for both teams, but the competitive stakes may increase discipline issues, making over 3.5 a slight lean.
- Gnistan average yellow cards: 1.8 per match, opponent yellow cards: 1.9 per match (last 15)
- TPS average yellow cards: 0.7 per match, opponent yellow cards: 1.5 per match (last 15)
- Gnistan average fouls: 12.8 per match, opponent fouls: 11.9 per match
- TPS average fouls: 6.8 per match, opponent fouls: 9.5 per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 53.2% vs our 48% estimate; the home win is priced as a coin flip but our model sees it as slightly less likely, leaving no value.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

D1-1Turku PSvGnistanApr 24, 2026VEI

W0-2Turku PSvGnistanFeb 14, 2026LEA

L2-0Turku PSvGnistanMar 16, 2024FRI

L2-0GnistanvTurku PSSep 17, 2023YKK

W0-3GnistanvTurku PSJul 23, 2023YKK

IF Gnistan: 2 clean sheetsTPS Turku: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Veikkausliiga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	IF Gnistan Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)	21	10	5	6	35-28	35	WWDLW
7	TPS Turku Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	21	8	6	7	27-22	30	DWDWL

5pt gap between teamsTPS Turku in relegation zone

Recent Form

IF Gnistan

W3-2HJK HelsinkiAug 23VEI

W3-2IlvesAug 17VEI

D2-2SJKAug 7VEI

L0-1KuPSAug 1VEI

W2-1Inter TurkuJul 26VEI

W2-0AC OuluJul 18VEI

W4-2MariehamnJul 11VEI

L0-1LahtiJul 4VEI

D1-1VPSJun 27VEI

D1-1FF JaroJun 23VEI

W1-0LahtiJun 17VEI

W3-0MariehamnJun 13VEI

W3-2SJKMay 30VEI

L0-2IlvesMay 23VEI

W5-0FF JaroMay 16VEI

TPS Turku

D0-0Inter TurkuAug 23VEI

W3-1VPSAug 14VEI

D1-1KuPSAug 9VEI

W3-0MariehamnAug 1VEI

L0-1HJK HelsinkiJul 26VEI

L1-3IlvesJul 20VEI

W3-0AC OuluJul 11VEI

L1-3SJKJul 4VEI

W3-2FF JaroJun 27VEI

D0-0LahtiJun 23VEI

L1-2KuPSJun 17VEI

L0-1IlvesJun 13VEI

W1-0VPSMay 30VEI

L0-1IlvesMay 27SUO

L1-2Inter TurkuMay 23VEI

Squad & Injuries

IF Gnistan

25 available

Attackers7

Midfielders5

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

TPS Turku

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

IF Gnistan or Draw

Yes

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Yes

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

IF Gnistan

TPS Turku

Squad & Injuries

IF Gnistan

TPS Turku