VeikkausliigaFull time

Predictions graded

TPS Turku0SJK Seinajoki0

HT 0–0Tue 8 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1029%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 10–9On targetOn target 2–1CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 16:42 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is on TPS Turku or Draw (Double Chance) at 1.50, with an 8-point edge over the implied probability.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score, as the market overprices those outcomes given SJK's suspensions and TPS's secured status.

Context

TPS Turku are 8th in the Veikkausliiga with 31 points, while SJK are 10th with 19 points. Both teams are in the relegation group.
TPS Turku have been much stronger at home this season, winning 7 of 11 matches and losing only 2. SJK have struggled on the road, winning just 1 of 11 away games and losing 6. This contrast suggests TPS Turku are likely to control the match, but SJK's recent away draw at AC Oulu shows they can still pick up points.
- TPS Turku home record: 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 11 matches.
- SJK away record: 1 win, 4 draws, 6 losses in 11 matches.
- TPS Turku have won their last two home matches, beating Mariehamn 3-0 and AC Oulu 3-0.
SJK are 10th in the Veikkausliiga with 19 points from 22 matches.
SJK have won only one of their last five league games, losing to Lahti, Mariehamn, and FF Jaro. Their away record is particularly weak, with just one win all season. This poor run could affect their confidence, but they did manage a 0-0 draw at AC Oulu in their most recent away match.
- SJK last five league results: D, L, L, D, W.
- SJK lost 2-1 at home to Lahti on 2026-08-21.
- SJK lost 2-0 away to Mariehamn on 2026-08-15.
TPS Turku midfielder A. Muzaci has started all five recent fixtures with available lineups.
TPS confirmed his absence for health reasons, so the home side must set its midfield without a regular starter. The squad announcement does not name a direct replacement, leaving the adjustment to the coach's selection.
- FC TPS named its match squad on 8 September.
- The club listed Albijon Muzaci as absent for health reasons.
- A. Muzaci started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Sep 2026, 16:40 · Europe/BucharestFC TPS match squad announcementfc.tps.fi · 8 Sep 2026
TPS Turku and SJK have met twice in the Veikkausliiga this season.
TPS Turku won both league meetings this season, 2-0 at home on 2026-04-18 and 3-1 away on 2026-07-04. These results show TPS Turku have been able to beat SJK convincingly, but SJK will be motivated to avoid a third straight defeat.
- 2026-04-18: TPS Turku 2-0 SJK (Veikkausliiga).
- 2026-07-04: SJK 1-3 TPS Turku (Veikkausliiga).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' home/away splits average 2.45 total goals, and TPS's recent home games have been high-scoring.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

TPS score regularly at home and SJK have enough attacking threat, but the odds already price in a high BTTS probability.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half scoring rates suggest a goal before halftime is more likely than not, but the odds are heavily juiced.

Team to ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

TPS Turku to score

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

SJK are unlikely to keep a clean sheet away against a TPS side that scores regularly at home, but the odds are extremely short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
TPS's strong home form and SJK's poor away record, combined with TPS's recent stability, give the home side the edge.
- TPS home record this season: 7W 2D 2L, 18 goals for, 9 against in 11 matches.
- SJK away record: 1W 4D 6L, 9 goals for, 18 against in 11 matches.
- TPS recent form last 5: DDWDW; SJK last 5: DLLDW.
- H2H last 5: TPS won 2, SJK won 2, 1 draw; TPS won last league meeting 2-0 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTPS TurkuEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
TPS's home fortress and SJK's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- TPS home record: 7W 2D 2L (82% unbeaten at home).
- SJK away record: 1W 4D 6L (only 1 win in 11 away).
- TPS have lost only 2 home matches all season.
- SJK have failed to win 10 of 11 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTPS Turku or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
TPS have a slight first-half edge at home, but the probability remains low due to frequent draws at halftime.
- TPS leading at halftime in 20% of matches overall.
- SJK trailing at halftime in 27% of matches overall.
- TPS home first-half results: W,D,W,L,W,L,L,W,L,D,D (3 wins in 11).
- SJK away first-half results: D,D,L,L,D,L,L,D,W,W,D (2 wins in 11).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostTPS TurkuEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
TPS's home strength and SJK's away fragility suggest TPS could win the second half, but confidence is low.
- TPS home second-half performance: often stronger after halftime (e.g., 3-0, 3-2 wins).
- SJK away second-half performance: often concede (e.g., 0-2, 1-2 losses).
- TPS have won 7 home matches, many with second-half goals.
- SJK have lost 6 away matches, often due to second-half collapses.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostTPS TurkuEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a TPS win is a plausible pattern given TPS's second-half home strength.
- TPS home matches often level at halftime (5 draws in 11).
- TPS have won 7 home matches, several after a level first half.
- SJK away matches often level at halftime (5 draws in 11).
- SJK have lost 6 away matches, some after level first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/TPS TurkuEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
TPS winning both halves is possible but unlikely given their tendency to draw first halves.
- TPS have won both halves in only 2 of 11 home matches.
- SJK have lost both halves in 3 of 11 away matches.
- TPS first-half home wins: 3; second-half home wins: 5.
- SJK first-half away losses: 3; second-half away losses: 5.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostTPS TurkuEstimated chance15%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
TPS are unlikely to trail at halftime at home, and SJK rarely lead at halftime away.
- TPS home first-half results: 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses.
- SJK away first-half results: 2 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses.
- TPS have not lost first half in 8 of 11 home matches.
- SJK have not won first half in 9 of 11 away matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTPS Turku or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show a tendency for goals, and TPS's recent home games have been high-scoring.
- TPS home matches average 2.45 total goals (18+9 in 11).
- SJK away matches average 2.45 total goals (9+18 in 11).
- TPS recent home matches: 3-0, 3-2, 1-3, 3-0, 1-0 (4 of 5 over 2.5).
- SJK recent away matches: 0-0, 0-2, 1-2, 0-1, 2-3 (3 of 5 over 2.5).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
TPS's home defense is not airtight and SJK have enough attacking threat to score, while TPS should score at home.
- TPS home: scored in 9 of 11, conceded in 6 of 11.
- SJK away: scored in 6 of 11, conceded in 9 of 11.
- TPS have kept only 5 clean sheets in 11 home matches.
- SJK have failed to score in 5 of 11 away matches but TPS concede at home regularly.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-half scoring rates suggest a goal before halftime is more likely than not.
- TPS average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.6 against overall.
- SJK average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.6 against overall.
- TPS home first-half goals: 0,0,2,0,2,1,3,0,1,0,0 (5 of 11 with first-half goal).
- SJK away first-half goals: 0,0,0,1,0,0,0,1,0,1,1 (4 of 11 with first-half goal).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is plausible given both teams' tendency to concede late, but confidence is low due to variability.
- TPS home matches average 2.45 total goals, with many goals coming after halftime.
- SJK away matches average 2.45 total goals.
- Recent TPS home matches: 3-0, 3-2, 1-3, 3-0, 1-0 (second-half goals in most).
- SJK away matches often see second-half goals (e.g., 0-2, 1-2, 2-3).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is uncommon for these sides, especially in home/away splits.
- TPS first-half goals for: 0.6, against: 0.6 overall.
- SJK first-half goals for: 0.5, against: 0.6 overall.
- TPS home first-half: both teams scored in only 2 of 11 matches.
- SJK away first-half: both teams scored in only 2 of 11 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
TPS have a decent chance of a clean sheet given SJK's away scoring struggles, but it's not a high-probability outcome.
- TPS home clean sheets: 5 in 11 matches.
- SJK away failed to score: 5 in 11 matches.
- TPS kept clean sheets in recent home wins: 3-0 vs Mariehamn, 3-0 vs AC Oulu, 1-0 vs VPS.
- SJK have scored in only 6 of 11 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSJK Seinajoki not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
SJK are unlikely to keep a clean sheet away against a TPS side that scores regularly at home.
- SJK away clean sheets: 2 in 11 matches.
- TPS home failed to score: 2 in 11 matches.
- TPS have scored in 9 of 11 home matches.
- SJK have conceded in 9 of 11 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostTPS Turku to scoreEstimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 40% vs our 45% estimate gives only a 5pt edge, below the medium-confidence threshold; the market is efficient here.

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L3-1SJKvTurku PSJul 4, 2026VEI

L2-0Turku PSvSJKApr 18, 2026VEI

D1-1SJKvTurku PSMar 7, 2026FRI

L3-2SJKvTurku PSMar 11, 2023FRI

L1-0Turku PSvSJKOct 31, 2020VEI

SJK Seinajoki unbeaten in 5 meetingsSJK Seinajoki: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Veikkausliiga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	TPS Turku Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	22	8	7	7	28-23	31	DDWDW
10	SJK Seinajoki Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	22	4	7	11	25-33	19	DLLDW

12pt gap between teamsTPS Turku in relegation zoneSJK Seinajoki in relegation zone

Recent Form

TPS Turku

D1-1GnistanAug 31VEI

D0-0Inter TurkuAug 23VEI

W3-1VPSAug 14VEI

D1-1KuPSAug 9VEI

W3-0MariehamnAug 1VEI

L0-1HJK HelsinkiJul 26VEI

L1-3IlvesJul 20VEI

W3-0AC OuluJul 11VEI

L1-3SJKJul 4VEI

W3-2FF JaroJun 27VEI

D0-0LahtiJun 23VEI

L1-2KuPSJun 17VEI

L0-1IlvesJun 13VEI

W1-0VPSMay 30VEI

L0-1IlvesMay 27SUO

SJK Seinajoki

D0-0AC OuluAug 31VEI

L1-2LahtiAug 21VEI

L0-2MariehamnAug 15VEI

D2-2GnistanAug 7VEI

W3-0HJK HelsinkiAug 3VEI

L1-2FF JaroJul 24VEI

L0-2KuPSJul 18VEI

L0-1VPSJul 10VEI

W3-1Turku PSJul 4VEI

D2-2IlvesJun 27VEI

D1-1Inter TurkuJun 23VEI

L1-2VPSJun 17VEI

W3-2LahtiJun 13VEI

L1-2Inter TurkuJun 10SUO

L2-3GnistanMay 30VEI

Squad & Injuries

TPS Turku

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

SJK Seinajoki

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

TPS Turku or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

No

TPS Turku to score

Result2 of 7 landed

Goals2 of 7 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

TPS Turku

SJK Seinajoki

Squad & Injuries

TPS Turku

SJK Seinajoki