VeikkausliigaFull time

Predictions graded

Ilves2IFK Mariehamn0

HT 2–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–367%

Edges5–183%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Aug 2026, 07:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Ilves are strong favorites at home against an IFK side with the league's worst away record, but heavy rotation risk from European commitments makes the short odds unappealing.

The only slight betting edge is 'Away Clean Sheet – No' at 1.20, while markets like Ilves win and over 2.5 goals offer no value. Wait for team news before betting, as Ilves' lineup will dictate the true dynamics.

Context

Ilves play Conference League qualifying away at Rijeka on 6 August and the return leg at home on 13 August.
- This league match was moved from 8 August to 9 August because of the European tie.
- Three games in eight days makes squad rotation almost certain, weakening Ilves' usual home strength.
IFK away record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses in nine Veikkausliiga away matches.
- They have scored 0.44 goals per away game and conceded 2.44 per away game.
- Only one away clean sheet all season, making them highly vulnerable on the road.
Last three league H2Hs at Ilves: 2-1 (Aug 2025), 2-0 (Aug 2024), 2-1 (Apr 2024).
- IFK scored only two goals total in those three away H2Hs.
- The most recent meeting, in April 2026, ended 2-2 but was played at IFK's ground.
IFK cannot reach the top six and are focused entirely on avoiding relegation.
- Gary Williams resigned on 25 May, and sporting director Jimmy Wargh took over as interim.
- With four games left, every point is critical for IFK's survival hopes.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ilves or Draw

1.07fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 93%

0.0ppshort

IFK Mariehamn have not won any of their 9 away league matches this season (0W-1D-8L), making an Ilves win or draw highly probable.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Ilves

1.25fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Ilves' strong home form and IFK's dreadful away record, combined with a positive home H2H pattern, give Ilves a clear edge despite potential fatigue from European commitments.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Ilves average 1.75 goals per home game and scored 2+ in 5 of 8 home matches, while IFK concede 2.44 per away game.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.17fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches frequently feature first-half goals, with Ilves home games averaging 1.0 and IFK away games 1.1 first-half goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ilves' strong home form and IFK's dreadful away record, combined with a positive home H2H pattern, give Ilves a clear edge despite potential fatigue from European commitments.
- Ilves home record: 5W-1D-2L, 14 goals scored, 8 conceded in 8 league matches this season.
- IFK Mariehamn away record: 0W-1D-8L, 4 goals scored, 22 conceded in 9 away matches.
- H2H at Ilves: Ilves won last 3 league home H2Hs (2-1, 2-0, 2-1), IFK scored only twice.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlvesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IFK's inability to win away makes an Ilves win or draw highly probable, supported by Ilves' solid home form and IFK's historically poor away performances.
- IFK Mariehamn have not won any of their 9 away league matches this season (0W-1D-8L).
- Ilves have lost only 2 of 8 home league matches this season.
- IFK have the worst away record in the league, scoring 0.44 goals per away game on average.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonIlves or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ilves tend to start stronger at home, while IFK frequently trail early, giving Ilves a decent chance to lead at the break despite the low confidence due to Ilves' potential rotation.
- Ilves led at halftime in 33% of their last 15 matches; IFK trailed at halftime in 60% of theirs.
- Ilves average 0.9 first-half goals at home; IFK average 0.2 first-half goals away.
- IFK have trailed at halftime in 8 of their last 10 league matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonIlvesEstimated chance45%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to produce goals, with Ilves' home games and IFK's away games averaging near or above 2.5 goals, and recent H2H history at this venue supports a higher-scoring affair.
- Ilves home league matches average 2.75 total goals (14 scored, 8 conceded in 8 games).
- IFK away league matches average 2.89 total goals (4 scored, 22 conceded in 9 games).
- Last 3 league H2Hs at Ilves all had over 2.5 goals (2-1, 2-0, 2-1).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ilves are likely to score at home, and while IFK's away scoring is poor, Ilves' defensive vulnerabilities at home and IFK's occasional away goals suggest both teams could find the net.
- Ilves have scored in 7 of 8 home league matches this season.
- IFK have scored in 4 of 9 away league matches, but Ilves have conceded in 6 of 8 home games.
- Last 3 league H2Hs at Ilves: IFK scored in 2 of those 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ilves' consistent home scoring and IFK's leaky away defense make it likely that Ilves will score at least twice.
- Ilves average 1.75 goals per home league match this season.
- Ilves scored 2+ goals in 5 of their 8 home league matches.
- IFK concede an average of 2.44 goals per away league match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonIlves over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IFK's away defensive record is extremely poor, and Ilves' strong home scoring record makes an IFK clean sheet highly unlikely.
- IFK have kept only 1 clean sheet in 9 away league matches this season.
- Ilves have failed to score in only 1 of 8 home league matches.
- IFK concede an average of 2.44 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonIlves to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches frequently feature first-half goals, with Ilves' home games and IFK's away games averaging over 0.5 first-half goals.
- Ilves home league matches average 1.0 first-half goals (0.9 scored, 0.9 conceded overall).
- IFK away league matches average 1.1 first-half goals (0.2 scored, 0.9 conceded overall).
- In 12 of Ilves' last 15 matches, there was at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Matches involving these teams tend to open up in the second half, with Ilves often scoring later and IFK conceding heavily after the break.
- Ilves home league matches average 1.75 second-half goals (total 2.75 minus 1.0 first-half).
- IFK away league matches average 1.78 second-half goals (total 2.89 minus 1.11 first-half).
- Ilves have scored 60% of their home goals in the second half this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and their combined averages suggest a total above 8.5 is plausible, though data is limited.
- Ilves average 3.8 corners per match overall; IFK average 4.9 corners per match overall.
- In the 5 matches where corner data is available for both, the combined average is 8.7 corners.
- IFK's away matches see an average of 9.2 total corners (based on limited data).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IFK's higher disciplinary issues and the competitive nature of a relegation battle could push the total cards over 3.5, though Ilves' low card count tempers confidence.
- Ilves average 0.8 yellow cards per match; IFK average 1.7 yellow cards per match.
- IFK have received 2+ yellow cards in 7 of their last 10 league matches.
- Ilves home matches average 2.1 total cards (limited data).
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 80% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D2-2MariehamnvIlvesApr 18, 2026VEI

D0-0IlvesvMariehamnMar 14, 2026FRI

W2-1IlvesvMariehamnAug 31, 2025VEI

L3-2MariehamnvIlvesApr 27, 2025VEI

W2-0IlvesvMariehamnAug 11, 2024VEI

Ilves: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Veikkausliiga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Ilves Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	18	6	4	8	29-31	22	LWWLD
12	IFK Mariehamn Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	18	0	5	13	9-39	5	LDLLL

17pt gap between teamsIlves in relegation zoneIFK Mariehamn in relegation zone

Recent Form

Ilves

L0-1AC OuluAug 2VEI

W1-0LahtiJul 26VEI

L0-1StjarnanJul 23UEF

W3-1Turku PSJul 20VEI

W3-1FC Differdange 03Jul 16UEF

D0-0FC Differdange 03Jul 8UEF

L1-2FF JaroJul 4VEI

L1-2HJK HelsinkiJul 1SUO

D2-2SJKJun 27VEI

L3-4KuPSJun 23VEI

W5-0FF JaroJun 17VEI

W1-0Turku PSJun 13VEI

W5-2LahtiJun 10SUO

L0-5LahtiMay 30VEI

W1-0Turku PSMay 27SUO

IFK Mariehamn

L0-3Turku PSAug 1VEI

D1-1AC OuluJul 25VEI

L0-2LahtiJul 20VEI

L2-4GnistanJul 11VEI

L0-4VPSJul 4VEI

L0-2Inter TurkuJun 27VEI

L0-4HJK HelsinkiJun 23VEI

L1-2AC OuluJun 18VEI

L0-3GnistanJun 13VEI

L0-1HJK HelsinkiMay 30VEI

L0-1LahtiMay 26SUO

L0-3FF JaroMay 23VEI

D1-1KuPSMay 16VEI

W3-0PuiU HelsinkiMay 13SUO

D1-1LahtiMay 10VEI

Squad & Injuries

Ilves

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

IFK Mariehamn

34 available

Attackers7

Midfielders15

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Ilves to score

Ilves or Draw

Ilves

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Over 0.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Ilves

Ilves or Draw

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Ilves

IFK Mariehamn

Squad & Injuries

Ilves

IFK Mariehamn