VeikkausliigaFull time

Predictions graded

VPS1TPS Turku3

HT 0–2Fri 14 Aug 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions0–90%

Edges0–60%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 06:59 · Europe/Bucharest

VPS’s strong home form (5W-3D-1L) and TPS’s winless away record (0W-4D-5L) make a home win the most likely outcome, but the value lies in under 2.5 goals (2.00) given TPS’s attacking absences and the two 1-0 H2H results this season.

Avoid backing TPS or the VPS -1 handicap.

Context

Tsirigotis scored 3 goals in 8 Veikkausliiga appearances before his injury.
- TPS confirmed his departure on 6 August after failing to extend the loan.
- TPS have scored only 6 goals in 9 away matches this season.
TPS away record: 0W-4D-5L, 6 goals scored, 12 conceded.
- They failed to score in 5 of 9 away matches.
- VPS home record: 5W-3D-1L, with only 7 goals conceded.
VPS home goals conceded: 7 in 9 matches (0.78 per game).
- They kept clean sheets in 4 of those 9 home games.
- Only one home loss all season.
The top six enter the Championship Series; the bottom six enter the Challenger Series.
- All regular-season points and goals are carried forward unchanged.
- Tie-breakers include goals conceded away and goals scored at home, incentivizing careful play.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
VPS have a strong home advantage (only 1 loss) while TPS are winless away, making a home win the most likely single outcome despite recent H2H losses.
- VPS home record: 5W-3D-1L, 17 goals for, 7 against in 9 matches
- TPS away record: 0W-4D-5L, 6 goals for, 12 against in 9 matches
- VPS last 5 matches: 2W-1D-2L, TPS last 5: 2W-1D-2L
- H2H this season: TPS won 1-0 at home, but VPS have strong home form
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostVPSEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
VPS are extremely hard to beat at home (only 1 loss) and TPS have zero away wins, so VPS or Draw covers the most probable outcomes.
- VPS home record: 5W-3D-1L (89% unbeaten)
- TPS away record: 0W-4D-5L (44% draw rate, 0% win)
- VPS have lost only 1 of 9 home games this season
- TPS have not won away in 9 attempts
BetBugs · Double ChancelostVPS or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tight, with both teams often drawing at the break in this matchup and VPS not dominant early at home.
- VPS home half-time results: 40% lead, 33% trail, 27% draw
- TPS away half-time results: 20% lead, 53% trail, 27% draw
- Both H2H matches this season were 0-0 at half time
- VPS last 5 home matches: 2 draws, 2 wins, 1 loss at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
VPS tend to improve after the break at home, while TPS fade away, but the low confidence reflects the inherent unpredictability of half-specific outcomes.
- VPS home second half goal difference: +0.8 (1.1 scored, 0.3 conceded)
- TPS away second half goal difference: -0.4 (0.3 scored, 0.7 conceded)
- VPS have won the second half in 4 of last 6 home matches
- TPS have lost the second half in 4 of last 6 away matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostVPSEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a VPS win is a plausible scenario given VPS's second-half strength at home, but it's a specific sequence with low base probability.
- VPS home matches: 3 of 9 were draw at HT, VPS win at FT
- TPS away matches: 2 of 9 were draw at HT, TPS lose at FT
- Both H2H matches this season: 0-0 at HT, TPS win at FT (but VPS at home now)
- VPS have strong second half home performance
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / VPSEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
TPS struggle to score away (0.67 goals/game) and VPS concede few at home, while recent H2H matches were low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- VPS home goals per game: 1.89, conceded 0.78 -> avg total 2.67
- TPS away goals per game: 0.67, conceded 1.33 -> avg total 2.00
- Both H2H meetings this season ended 1-0
- VPS last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
VPS have a solid home defense and TPS often blank on the road, plus the loss of Tsirigotis reduces TPS's attacking threat, making a clean sheet for at least one side likely.
- VPS home clean sheets: 4 in 9 matches (44%)
- TPS away failed to score: 5 in 9 matches (56%)
- Both H2H matches this season ended with one team scoring
- TPS lost key attacker Tsirigotis (3 goals in 8 games)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
VPS have a decent chance of a clean sheet given TPS's poor away scoring record, but it's not a high-probability event due to VPS conceding in 5 of 9 home games.
- VPS home clean sheets: 4 in 9 (44%)
- TPS away goals scored: 6 in 9 (0.67 per game)
- TPS failed to score in 5 of 9 away games
- VPS kept clean sheet in last home match vs Mariehamn (4-0)
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostTPS Turku not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to have low-scoring first halves, especially in this fixture, making under 1.5 first half goals a strong bet.
- VPS first half goals at home: 0.8 per game, conceded 0.7 -> avg 1.5
- TPS first half goals away: 0.6 per game, conceded 0.7 -> avg 1.3
- Both H2H matches this season were 0-0 at half time
- VPS last 5 home matches: 4 had under 1.5 first half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average low corner counts, suggesting a total under 9.5, but limited corner data reduces confidence.
- VPS home corners per game: 2.1, opponent corners: 3.0 -> avg total 5.1
- TPS away corners per game: 2.8, opponent corners: 3.0 -> avg total 5.8
- Only 3 of VPS's last 15 matches had corner data, averaging 2.3 corners for, 2.7 against
- TPS's last 5 matches with corner data averaged 3.4 corners for, 3.2 against
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low card averages, making under 3.5 cards likely, but card data is sparse and variable.
- VPS home yellow cards per game: 1.3, opponent: 1.5 -> avg total 2.8
- TPS away yellow cards per game: 0.7, opponent: 1.5 -> avg total 2.2
- VPS last 5 matches with card data: avg 1.6 yellows, 0 reds
- TPS last 5 matches with card data: avg 0.8 yellows, 0 reds
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

TPS are winless away (0W-4D-5L) and lost their top scorer Tsirigotis; the 4.50 odds imply only 22% probability, which is fair given their away form.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L1-0Turku PSvVPSMay 30, 2026VEI

L1-0Turku PSvVPSMar 14, 2026FRI

W1-3Turku PSvVPSOct 8, 2021YKK

L1-2VPSvTurku PSSep 1, 2021YKK

D1-1Turku PSvVPSMay 5, 2021YKK

TPS Turku: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Veikkausliiga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	VPS Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)	19	8	6	5	27-18	30	WLLLW
8	TPS Turku Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)	19	7	5	7	24-21	26	DWLLW

4pt gap between teamsTPS Turku in relegation zone

Recent Form

VPS

W3-1FF JaroAug 8VEI

L0-1Inter TurkuAug 2VEI

L1-3KuPSJul 25VEI

L1-2HJK HelsinkiJul 18VEI

W1-0SJKJul 10VEI

W4-0MariehamnJul 4VEI

L2-3Inter TurkuJun 30SUO

D1-1GnistanJun 27VEI

W5-1AC OuluJun 23VEI

W2-1SJKJun 17VEI

D1-1KuPSJun 13VEI

L0-1Turku PSMay 30VEI

W4-0HakaMay 26SUO

W2-1HJK HelsinkiMay 22VEI

D1-1LahtiMay 18VEI

TPS Turku

D1-1KuPSAug 9VEI

W3-0MariehamnAug 1VEI

L0-1HJK HelsinkiJul 26VEI

L1-3IlvesJul 20VEI

W3-0AC OuluJul 11VEI

L1-3SJKJul 4VEI

W3-2FF JaroJun 27VEI

D0-0LahtiJun 23VEI

L1-2KuPSJun 17VEI

L0-1IlvesJun 13VEI

W1-0VPSMay 30VEI

L0-1IlvesMay 27SUO

L1-2Inter TurkuMay 23VEI

L0-1AC OuluMay 16VEI

W3-0HJS AkatemiaMay 13SUO

Squad & Injuries

VPS

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

TPS Turku

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

No

VPS or Draw

VPS

Under 1.5

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

TPS Turku

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

VPS

TPS Turku

Squad & Injuries

VPS

TPS Turku