Gefle IF0FC Arlanda2

HT 0–0Wed 16 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 23:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Gefle vs Arlanda is expected to be high-scoring, but the market has already priced Over 2.5 and BTTS with no value.

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.25 (+13.6 points). Arlanda's defensive loss of Elfström is a minor factor, but the overall match likely features goals after the break.

Context

Gefle IF sit 10th in Ettan - Norra with 27 points from 21 matches.
Their recent home results show a clear improvement: they beat Järfälla 3-1 on 12 September, drew 2-2 with IF Karlstad on 29 August, and beat Umeå FC 2-0 on 15 August. This home strength could help them against FC Arlanda, though their overall home record is mixed with three losses.
- Gefle IF won 3-1 at home against Järfälla on 12 September 2026.
- Gefle IF drew 2-2 at home with IF Karlstad on 29 August 2026.
- Gefle IF won 2-0 at home against Umeå FC on 15 August 2026.
FC Arlanda defender Viggo Elfström has left the club, joining IF Elfsborg on a contract through 2030 after making 14 Ettan Norra appearances this season.
His departure removes a defensive option for FC Arlanda, so their back-line selection must be made without him. The club has not announced a direct replacement, leaving uncertainty over how they will adjust.
- IF Elfsborg announced on 1 September that it had agreed a transfer with FC Arlanda for Viggo Elfström.
- Elfsborg said Elfström joined immediately on a contract through 2030 after making 14 Ettan Norra appearances for FC Arlanda this season.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 23:40 · Europe/BucharestIF Elfsborg — Välkommen Viggo Elfströmelfsborg.se · 1 Sep 2026
FC Arlanda are 6th in Ettan - Norra with 36 points from 21 matches.
Their recent form has dipped: they lost 1-0 at Karlberg on 12 September and 2-1 at home to Umeå FC on 6 September. Before that, they had won two in a row, so this slump may be temporary, but it could affect their confidence in this away match.
- FC Arlanda lost 1-0 away to Karlberg on 12 September 2026.
- FC Arlanda lost 2-1 at home to Umeå FC on 6 September 2026.
The teams have met three times in the last two seasons.
In the most recent match on 1 June 2026, Gefle IF won 3-2 at Arlanda. The previous two meetings were a 2-0 Arlanda home win in August 2025 and a 1-1 draw in June 2025. This recent head-to-head edge may give Gefle IF confidence, but the sample is small and includes mixed results.
- Gefle IF won 3-2 away against Arlanda on 1 June 2026.
- Arlanda won 2-0 at home against Gefle IF on 24 August 2025.
- Gefle IF drew 1-1 at home with Arlanda on 2 June 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, and the recent H2H was a 5-goal thriller, supporting Over 2.5.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding rates suggest at least one goal before the break is likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's higher league position and solid away form give them a slight edge, though Gefle's home record is identical.
- FC Arlanda are 6th with 36 points; Gefle IF are 10th with 27 points.
- FC Arlanda away record: 5W 2D 3L; Gefle home record: 5W 2D 3L.
- Gefle IF have a negative goal difference (-11) overall.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC ArlandaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's stronger overall season and low away loss rate make them unlikely to lose, supporting the double chance.
- Gefle IF home win rate is 50% (5/10).
- FC Arlanda away loss rate is only 30% (3/10).
- Arlanda are 9 points ahead in the table.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FC ArlandaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team shows a strong first-half dominance, making a level score at the break plausible.
- Gefle IF led at halftime in only 20% of matches.
- FC Arlanda led at halftime in 33% of matches.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal differentials.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arlanda's superior overall quality may show in the second half as Gefle tire.
- FC Arlanda have a positive goal difference (+9) overall.
- Gefle IF have a negative goal difference (-11) overall.
- Arlanda's away second-half scoring is slightly higher than Gefle's home second-half scoring.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFC ArlandaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by an Arlanda win is a plausible sequence given their second-half strength.
- Gefle IF drew at halftime in 20% of matches.
- FC Arlanda won 48% of their matches overall.
- Arlanda's away win rate is 50%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/FC ArlandaEstimated chance22%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown the consistency to win both halves, making this outcome very unlikely.
- Gefle IF have not won both halves in any of their last 15 matches.
- FC Arlanda have won both halves in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams rarely dominate an entire match.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gefle often trail at halftime, making a draw or Arlanda lead the more likely first-half outcome.
- Gefle IF trailed at halftime in 60% of matches.
- FC Arlanda led at halftime in 33% of away matches.
- Gefle's first-half home goal difference is negative.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or FC ArlandaEstimated chance65%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, and the recent H2H was a 5-goal thriller, supporting Over 2.5.
- Gefle IF home matches average 3.2 total goals (16 for, 16 against in 10 games).
- FC Arlanda away matches average 3.4 total goals (18 for, 16 against in 10 games).
- Last H2H meeting produced 5 goals (Arlanda 2-3 Gefle).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Gefle IF scored in 8 of 10 home matches this season.
- FC Arlanda scored in 8 of 10 away matches this season.
- Both teams scored in the last H2H meeting (2-3).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding rates suggest at least one goal before the break is likely.
- Gefle IF average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded at home.
- FC Arlanda average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded away.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.15 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is typically higher for both teams, making Over 1.5 second-half goals a reasonable expectation.
- Gefle IF home matches average 1.6 second-half goals (total 3.2 minus 1.6 first-half).
- FC Arlanda away matches average 1.7 second-half goals (total 3.4 minus 1.7 first-half).
- Both teams tend to score more after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is less likely given their modest first-half scoring rates.
- Gefle IF average 0.3 first-half goals scored at home.
- FC Arlanda average 0.4 first-half goals conceded away.
- Combined first-half BTTS rate is low.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 63.7% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Over play.

Prediction history

Gefle IF has been unreliable in Over 2.5 goals projections

Gefle IF has fulfilled 1 of 4 Over 2.5 goals predictions, a 25% success rate. The average estimated probability was 63%, but only 25% of matches exceeded 2.5 goals, falling short of the expected 2.5 fulfilled predictions. At home, Gefle IF fulfilled 1 of 2 predictions, while away they fulfilled 0 of 2, indicating no clear location advantage.

Recent evidence for Gefle IF4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra