Gefle IF2Umea FC0

HT 1–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Aug 2026, 23:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Gefle are slight favorites at home in a relegation-buffer clash, but the market overprices their win probability (38% vs 46.5% implied).

Avoid Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes at 1.48—our model sees only 55% and 60% chances respectively, leaving no value. The double chance (Gefle or Draw) is fairly priced, so wait for better odds or focus on the Under.

Context

Gefle dismissed Rawez Lawan on 25 May and installed Pelle Olsson through 2028.
- Since the change, Gefle have won 3 of 8 league matches, compared to 2 wins in the first 8.
- Olsson's existing staff remained intact, providing continuity.
Umea FC away record: 2W-2D-4L, 11 goals for, 14 against in 8 matches.
- They have lost their last two away league matches (0-1 vs AFC Eskilstuna, 1-3 vs Enköping).
- Their only away win in the last five was a 5-1 victory over Assyriska FF.
Gefle are 11th with 17 points, Umea 12th with 16 points, and 13th-place Järfälla have 15 points.
- The 13th-placed team enters a relegation qualifier, making this an early but material buffer match.
- Both teams have shown inconsistent form, increasing the importance of this direct clash.
Last three H2H: Gefle 2 wins, 1 draw.
- In May 2026, the teams drew 2-2 in Umea.
- Gefle kept clean sheets in both 2022 meetings.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Gefle IF

2.15fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 46.5%

0.0ppshort

Gefle's home edge and recent H2H dominance are offset by their poor defensive record at home, making the market's implied probability higher than our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gefle IF or Draw

1.44fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69.4%

−1.4ppshort

Gefle's home form and H2H record make them unlikely to lose, but the market's implied probability slightly exceeds our estimate, leaving no value.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Despite leaky defenses, the odds imply a much higher probability than our model, so the value is on the Under side.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gefle's home edge and recent H2H dominance, combined with Umea's poor away form, give them a slight advantage in a relegation-buffer match.
- Gefle IF home record: 3W-1D-3L, 9 goals for, 13 against in 7 matches
- Umea FC away record: 2W-2D-4L, 11 goals for, 14 against in 8 matches
- H2H last 3: Gefle unbeaten (2W-1D), including 2-2 draw in May 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGefle IFEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gefle's home form and H2H record make them unlikely to lose, while Umea's away struggles reduce their chances of winning.
- Gefle IF home record: 3W-1D-3L, 9 goals for, 13 against in 7 matches
- Umea FC away record: 2W-2D-4L, 11 goals for, 14 against in 8 matches
- H2H last 3: Gefle unbeaten (2W-1D), including 2-2 draw in May 2026
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGefle IF or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often find themselves level at the break, and their H2H history includes several first-half draws, making a draw at half time a reasonable outcome.
- Gefle IF first half record: 13% leading, 60% trailing at half time
- Umea FC first half record: 27% leading, 27% trailing at half time
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Gefle win is a plausible scenario given their home advantage and Umea's away struggles, but the probability is low due to the unpredictability of exact sequences.
- Gefle IF home record: 3W-1D-3L, 9 goals for, 13 against in 7 matches
- Umea FC away record: 2W-2D-4L, 11 goals for, 14 against in 8 matches
- H2H last 3: Gefle unbeaten (2W-1D), including 2-2 draw in May 2026
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Gefle IFEstimated chance15%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have leaky defenses and moderate scoring, and recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Gefle IF average goals per match: 1.2 for, 2.1 against
- Umea FC average goals per match: 1.3 for, 1.7 against
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and their H2H history shows frequent goals from both sides, making BTTS likely.
- Gefle IF scored in 10 of 15 recent matches
- Umea FC scored in 11 of 15 recent matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and their H2H meetings often feature first-half goals, supporting over 0.5 first-half goals.
- Gefle IF first half goals: 0.4 per match, first half goals conceded: 1.1 per match
- Umea FC first half goals: 0.5 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.5 per match
- H2H last 5: first half goals in 4 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede more in the second half, and their H2H matches have consistent second-half scoring, making over 1.5 second-half goals plausible.
- Gefle IF average second half goals: 0.8 (total 1.2 - 0.4 first half)
- Umea FC average second half goals: 0.8 (total 1.3 - 0.5 first half)
- H2H last 5: second half goals in all matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, this is a speculative estimate based on league averages, but the attacking nature of both teams could lead to a higher corner count.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Both teams average around 4-5 corners per match based on typical Ettan Norra patterns
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The high stakes of this relegation-buffer match may lead to more fouls and cards, but without specific card data, this is a speculative estimate.
- Card data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- Relegation-buffer matches often feature increased physicality and cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 38% vs our estimate 30% leaves no cushion; Umea's away form is poor and Gefle's H2H dominance makes the away win unlikely.

Prediction history

Gefle IF has struggled to clear Over 2.5 goals in recent projections

Gefle IF has fulfilled 1 of 4 Over 2.5 goals predictions, a 25% success rate. The average estimated probability was 63%, but the current prediction of 55% sits below the historical range of 60-70%. At home, Gefle IF has fulfilled 1 of 2 such predictions, while away they have fulfilled 0 of 2.

Recent evidence for Gefle IF4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Ettan - Norra