Mirassol2Vitoria2

HT 0–2Sun 13 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges1–150%

PossPossession 75%–25%ShotsShots 27–8On targetOn target 6–6CornersCorners 12–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 01:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Vitória are winless in 13 away league matches, but Mirassol's suspensions and the market's heavy favouritism leave no value on the hosts.

The only positive edge is Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.40 (our estimate 75% vs implied 71.4%), while the match winner and double chance markets should be avoided.

Context

Vitoria are 14th in Serie A with 29 points, but their away form is a major weakness.
In 13 away matches, Vitoria have 0 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, scoring only 8 goals and conceding 28. This suggests they struggle to create chances and defend on the road. Mirassol's home record is modest (5 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses), but Vitoria's away struggles could give the home side an edge.
- Vitoria away record: 0 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses in 13 matches.
- Vitoria have scored 8 goals and conceded 28 away from home.
Mirassol captain and centre-back João Victor is suspended after a third yellow card in the win over Coritiba.
His absence removes the leader of the defensive line and forces a reshuffle in central defence against Vitória. The linked analysis notes Mirassol's defensive absences temper confidence in a home win, so the replacement's integration will be a key early test.
- João Victor received his third yellow card in Mirassol's win over Coritiba.
- The centre-back is suspended for the Série A match against Vitória.
- The report identifies João Victor as Mirassol's captain.
ReportedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 01:55 · Europe/Bucharestge Globo — Mirassolge.globo.com · 8 Sep 2026
Mirassol are 16th in Serie A with 28 points from 26 matches.
The relegation line is at 17th place, currently held by Vasco da Gama with 25 points. Mirassol's three-point cushion is slim, and a loss could drag them closer to the drop zone. Their recent form is mixed (WLDDL), but they have been competitive at home with 5 wins in 13 matches.
- Mirassol rank 16th with 28 points.
- The relegation line is 17th place, currently Vasco da Gama with 25 points.
The teams have met five times in recent years, with Vitoria winning three and drawing two.
In the most recent meetings, Vitoria won 1-0 on 2026-03-22 and 2-0 on 2025-11-29, both at home. However, Mirassol won 2-0 at home in 2023-05-19, showing they can beat Vitoria at their own ground. The head-to-head suggests Vitoria have had the upper hand recently, but the venue could be a factor.
- Vitoria 1-0 Mirassol on 2026-03-22.
- Vitoria 2-0 Mirassol on 2025-11-29.
- Mirassol 2-0 Vitoria on 2023-05-19.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mirassol or Draw

1.21fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

Vitoria have zero away wins in 13 league matches, but the odds already price that in at 83% implied, leaving no value against our 72% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mirassol's home advantage and Vitoria's dreadful away form (no wins, 28 conceded) give the hosts the edge, though Mirassol's own inconsistency and defensive absences temper confidence.
- Mirassol home record: 5W 4D 4L, 17 goals scored, 19 conceded in 13 home matches.
- Vitoria away record: 0W 4D 9L, 8 goals scored, 28 conceded in 13 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Mirassol 2W, Vitoria 2W, 1D; at Mirassol home, Mirassol won 2-0 in 2023 and drew 1-1 in 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMirassolEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vitoria's inability to win away (0/13) makes Mirassol or Draw highly likely, supported by Mirassol's solid home form and H2H home record.
- Vitoria away record: 0 wins in 13 away league matches this season.
- Mirassol home record: only 4 losses in 13 home matches.
- H2H at Mirassol: Mirassol unbeaten in last 2 home meetings (1W 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMirassol or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given both teams' tendency to start slowly and Vitoria's poor first-half record, a draw at half-time is the most likely outcome.
- Mirassol leading at half-time in 40% of matches, trailing in 27%.
- Vitoria leading at half-time in only 13% of matches, trailing in 40%.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Mirassol win is plausible given Mirassol's home strength and Vitoria's away fragility, but the probability is low due to overall unpredictability.
- Mirassol has won 5 home matches, often after a tight first half.
- Vitoria has lost 9 away matches, many after being level or behind at half-time.
- H2H at Mirassol: 1-1 draw in 2025, 2-0 win in 2023.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / MirassolEstimated chance18%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring rates and Vitoria's away attack is especially weak (8 goals in 13 away games), making a low-scoring match likely.
- Mirassol averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match overall.
- Vitoria averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall.
- Combined average total goals in matches involving these teams is around 2.2.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vitoria's poor away scoring record and Mirassol's occasional defensive solidity at home suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Vitoria failed to score in 6 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Mirassol kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Vitoria away: only 8 goals in 13 away league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, especially Vitoria with only 0.2 first-half goals per game, making a low-scoring first half very likely.
- Mirassol averages 0.6 first-half goals and 0.5 first-half goals conceded.
- Vitoria averages 0.2 first-half goals and 0.5 first-half goals conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 0.9.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While second-half scoring is not high, the match may open up as teams chase a result, especially with Vitoria needing a first away win.
- Mirassol scores 0.3 goals per second half on average (0.9 total - 0.6 first half).
- Vitoria scores 0.6 goals per second half on average (0.8 total - 0.2 first half).
- Combined second-half goal average is 0.9, but fatigue and tactical changes may increase scoring.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts and the match is likely to be low-scoring with fewer attacking corners, supporting under 9.5 corners.
- Mirassol averages 4.3 corners per match, Vitoria 4.6.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is 8.9.
- Recent H2H matches had 5-8 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be physical with both teams averaging over 2 yellow cards, and the stakes of a relegation battle may increase card count.
- Mirassol averages 2.2 yellow cards per match, Vitoria 2.1.
- Combined average yellow cards is 4.3, with red cards also possible.
- Both teams have high foul counts (12.1 and 12.3 per match).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 58% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; the price already reflects the directional read and ignores Mirassol's defensive absences.

Prediction history

Mirassol has been highly reliable when projected to win

Mirassol has fulfilled 4 of 4 win predictions, a 100% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 45%, with all four predictions matched. The current prediction of 42% sits within the historical range of 42-48%.

Recent evidence for Mirassol4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A