Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Flamengo2Vitoria0

HT 1–0Sun 9 Aug 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 19–7On targetOn target 6–1CornersCorners 8–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Aug 2026, 00:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Flamengo are rightful favorites given Vitória’s dreadful away league record, but the 1.22 odds offer no value after Vitória’s recent cup win exposed vulnerabilities.

The only slim edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.55, though Flamengo’s attacking injuries temper confidence. Avoid the short match-winner and double-chance markets.

Context

Lucas Paqueta (midfielder) is out with a muscle injury.
- Luiz Araujo (attacker) is out with a knee injury.
- G. Plata (attacker) is out with a knee injury.
Vitória away record: 0 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses in 11 league games.
- They have conceded 24 goals on the road, averaging over 2 per game.
- Only 7 goals scored away from home in the league.
Vitória won 2-0 on 15 May 2026, eliminating Flamengo from the cup.
- Flamengo had won the first leg 2-1, but Vitória's performance was decisive.
- The last three 2026 meetings have all been decided by a single goal or a two-goal margin.
Cacá and Luan Candido are suspended due to red cards.
- Camutanga (broken leg), Nathan Mendes (knee), and Edu (Achilles) are all out injured.
- Riccieli is questionable with a calf injury, further limiting options.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Flamengo

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Flamengo's strong home form (5W-3D-1L) and Vitória's dreadful away record (0W-4D-7L) give Flamengo a clear edge, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Flamengo or Draw

1.05fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 95%

0.0ppshort

Vitória's inability to win away (0 wins in 11) combined with Flamengo's strong home record (only 1 loss) makes a Flamengo win or draw highly probable, but the odds are too short to offer value.

2 Nd Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Flamengo

1.61fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62%

0.0ppshort

Flamengo's strong second-half performances at home and Vitória's tendency to fade after the break make Flamengo likely to win the second half, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 1.5

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75.2%

−5.2ppshort

Flamengo's consistent home scoring and Vitoria's poor away defensive record strongly support Flamengo scoring at least twice.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a tendency for early goals, with Vitoria's poor first-half defensive record away from home making a first-half goal very likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's strong home form and Vitoria's dreadful away record (0 wins, 24 goals conceded in 11 away games) give Flamengo a clear edge, supported by H2H dominance in league fixtures.
- Flamengo home record: 5W-3D-1L, 17 goals scored, 8 conceded in 9 home league matches this season.
- Vitoria away record: 0W-4D-7L, 7 goals scored, 24 conceded in 11 away league matches this season.
- Flamengo overall form: 11W-6D-3L, 37 goals scored, 18 conceded; Vitoria: 7W-5D-9L, 22 scored, 31 conceded.
- Last 5 H2H: Flamengo won 3, Vitoria won 1, 1 draw; Flamengo won the most recent league meeting 2-1 away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vitoria's inability to win away (0 wins in 11) combined with Flamengo's strong home record (only 1 loss) makes a Flamengo win or draw highly probable.
- Flamengo home losses: only 1 in 9 league home games this season.
- Vitoria away wins: 0 in 11 league away games this season.
- Flamengo have lost only 3 of 20 league matches overall.
- Vitoria have lost 9 of 21 league matches, with 7 of those losses away.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFlamengo or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Flamengo are more likely to lead at the break given Vitoria's poor first-half away performances, but Flamengo's own first-half inconsistency keeps confidence low.
- Flamengo home first-half record: led at half-time in 3 of 9 home league games (33%).
- Vitoria away first-half record: trailed at half-time in 6 of 11 away league games (55%).
- Flamengo's last 5 league matches: led at half-time in 2, drew 2, trailed 1.
- Vitoria's last 5 league matches: trailed at half-time in 3, drew 1, led 1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's strong second-half performances at home and Vitoria's tendency to fade after the break make Flamengo likely to win the second half.
- Flamengo home second-half record: won second half in 5 of 9 home league games (56%).
- Vitoria away second-half record: lost second half in 7 of 11 away league games (64%).
- Flamengo's last 5 league matches: won second half in 3, drew 1, lost 1.
- Vitoria's last 5 league matches: lost second half in 3, drew 1, won 1.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFlamengoEstimated chance55%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and season averages point to a high-scoring game, with Flamengo's attacking strength at home and Vitoria's leaky away defense.
- Flamengo home matches average 2.78 total goals (17 scored, 8 conceded in 9 games).
- Vitoria away matches average 2.82 total goals (7 scored, 24 conceded in 11 games).
- Flamengo's last 5 league matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Vitoria's last 5 league matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's defense has been leaky recently, and Vitoria have shown they can score on the road, making both teams scoring likely.
- Flamengo have conceded in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Vitoria have scored in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- Flamengo home clean sheets: only 3 in 9 home league games.
- Vitoria away goals: scored in 5 of 11 away league games, but have scored in 3 of last 4 away in all competitions.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's consistent home scoring and Vitoria's poor away defensive record strongly support Flamengo scoring at least twice.
- Flamengo average 1.89 goals per home league game (17 in 9).
- Flamengo have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 home matches across all competitions.
- Vitoria concede an average of 2.18 goals per away league game (24 in 11).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Flamengo scored 2+ goals in 4 of them.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFlamengo over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency for early goals, with Vitoria's poor first-half defensive record away from home making a first-half goal very likely.
- Flamengo home first-half goals: 0.78 per game (7 in 9 home league matches).
- Vitoria away first-half goals conceded: 1.09 per game (12 in 11 away league matches).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 had a first-half goal.
- Flamengo's last 5 league matches: 4 had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Flamengo's strong second-half scoring at home and Vitoria's tendency to concede after the break suggest a high-scoring second half.
- Flamengo home second-half goals: 1.11 per game (10 in 9 home league matches).
- Vitoria away second-half goals conceded: 1.09 per game (12 in 11 away league matches).
- Flamengo's last 5 league matches: 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Vitoria's last 5 league matches: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a total around 9-10, but limited corner data and variability keep confidence low for over 9.5.
- Flamengo average 5.7 corners per game overall; Vitoria average 4.3 corners per game.
- Flamengo home corners: average 5.8 in home league matches (data from recent matches).
- Vitoria away corners: average 4.5 in away league matches (data from recent matches).
- Combined average corners in Flamengo matches: 10.0; in Vitoria matches: 9.0.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages hover around 4.5-4.7, suggesting a slight lean towards over, but the margin is thin and confidence is low.
- Flamengo average 2.4 yellow cards per game; Vitoria average 2.3 yellow cards per game.
- Flamengo home yellow cards: average 2.2 in home league matches.
- Vitoria away yellow cards: average 2.5 in away league matches.
- Combined average cards in Flamengo matches: 4.7; in Vitoria matches: 4.6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 82% leaves no cushion vs our 60% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Flamengo has been moderately reliable when projected to win

Flamengo has fulfilled 5 of 10 recent match-winner predictions. The average estimated probability in fulfilled predictions was 61.6%, while missed predictions averaged 51%, indicating that higher-confidence projections were more likely to succeed. At home, Flamengo won 4 of 6 such matches, compared to only 1 of 4 away, suggesting stronger reliability when playing at home.

Recent evidence for Flamengo10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Serie A

Internacional RS1-1

Flamengo

BetBugsFlamengo to win·45%

Missed

30 Jul 2026

Serie A

Internacional RS1-1

Flamengo

Flamengo to win

45%probability

Draw

Missed

27 Jul·Serie A

Flamengo1-1

Sao Paulo

BetBugsFlamengo to win·65%

Missed

27 Jul 2026

Serie A

Flamengo1-1

Sao Paulo

Flamengo to win

65%probability

Draw

Missed

23 Jul·Serie A

Chapecoense0-4

Flamengo

BetBugsFlamengo to win·65%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

Serie A

Chapecoense0-4

Flamengo

Flamengo to win

65%probability

Flamengo won

Matched

30 May·Serie A

Flamengo3-0

Coritiba

BetBugsFlamengo to win·55%

Matched

30 May 2026

Serie A

Flamengo3-0

Coritiba

Flamengo to win

55%probability

Flamengo won

Matched

27 May·Copa Libertadores

Flamengo3-0

Cusco FC

BetBugsFlamengo to win·65%

Matched

27 May 2026

Copa Libertadores

Flamengo3-0

Cusco FC

Flamengo to win

65%probability

Flamengo won

Matched

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

L2-0VitoriavFlamengoMay 15, 2026COP

W2-1FlamengovVitoriaApr 23, 2026COP

W1-2VitoriavFlamengoFeb 11, 2026SA

W8-0FlamengovVitoriaAug 26, 2025SA

W1-2VitoriavFlamengoApr 6, 2025SA

3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Flamengo Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)	20	11	6	3	37-18	39	DDWWL
13	Vitoria	21	7	5	9	22-31	26	LLDWL

13pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Flamengo

D1-1InternacionalJul 29SA

D1-1Sao PauloJul 26SA

W4-0Chapecoense-scJul 23SA

W4-2OlimpiaJul 17FRI

W2-1BenficaJul 11FRI

W2-0LausanneJul 8FRI

D2-2River PlateJul 3FRI

W3-0CoritibaMay 30SA

W3-0CuscoMay 27CON

L0-3PalmeirasMay 24SA

W1-0Estudiantes L.P.May 21CON

D1-1Atletico ParanaenseMay 17SA

L0-2VitoriaMay 15COP

W1-0GremioMay 10SA

D2-2Vasco DA GamaMay 3SA

Vitoria

W4-0Atletico ParanaenseAug 6COP

L0-2Atletico ParanaenseAug 4COP

L0-4PalmeirasJul 30SA

L0-2RemoJul 26SA

D0-0BotafogoJul 23SA

W1-0Vasco DA GamaJul 16SA

W2-1Fortaleza ECJun 6COP

W2-1Fortaleza ECJun 3COP

L1-3SantosMay 30SA

W4-3ABCMay 28COP

W2-0InternacionalMay 23SA

W6-2ABCMay 21COP

L0-2RB BragantinoMay 17SA

W2-0FlamengoMay 15COP

D2-2FluminenseMay 9SA

Squad & Injuries

Flamengo

8 out

Attackers4/9

×#7

×#19

×#7

×#19

Midfielders4/15

×#20

×#18

×#20

×#18

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

#20 Lucas Paqueta — Muscle Injury

#7 Luiz Araujo — Knee Injury

#19 G. Plata — Knee Injury

#18 N. de la Cruz — Yellow Cards

#20 Lucas Paqueta — Muscle Injury

#7 Luiz Araujo — Knee Injury

#19 G. Plata — Knee Injury

#18 N. de la Cruz — Yellow Cards

Vitoria

20 out

Attackers2/11

×#28

Midfielders4/10

×#21

×#8

×#21

×#8

Defenders12/20

×#25

×#4

×#43

×#36

×#45

×#5

×#25

×#4

×#43

×#36

×#45

×#5

Goalkeeper5

#28 Anderson — Knee Injury

#25 Caca — Red Card

#4 Camutanga — Broken Leg

#21 Dudu — Back Injury

#43 Edu — Achilles Tendon Injury

#36 Luan Candido — Red Card

#45 Nathan Mendes — Knee Injury

#8 T. Pochettino — Inactive

R. Ramos — Knee Injury

#5 Riccieli — Calf Injury

#28 Anderson — Knee Injury

#25 Caca — Red Card

#4 Camutanga — Broken Leg

#21 Dudu — Back Injury

#43 Edu — Achilles Tendon Injury

#36 Luan Candido — Red Card

#45 Nathan Mendes — Knee Injury

#8 T. Pochettino — Inactive

R. Ramos — Knee Injury

#5 Riccieli — Calf Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Flamengo

Flamengo or Draw

Flamengo

Over 1.5

Over 0.5

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Flamengo

Flamengo or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Flamengo

Vitoria

Squad & Injuries

Flamengo

Vitoria