Alaves5Osasuna2

HT 2–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 12–7On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 4–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 07:12 · Europe/Bucharest

The only clear value is Both Teams to Score: Yes at 2.10, with a +7 point edge.

Avoid the double chance and under 2.5 goals, as the market has already priced in Alaves' home strength and defensive trends. Monitor injury news on Toni Martínez and Aimar Oroz before kickoff.

Context

Alaves sit fourth in La Liga with seven points from three matches.
Their home record is perfect: two wins from two, scoring four goals and conceding none. They beat Villarreal 1-0 on 28 August and Getafe 3-0 on 15 August. This defensive solidity at home could frustrate Osasuna, who have scored only three goals in three league games.
- Alaves home record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 4 goals for, 0 against.
- Beat Villarreal 1-0 at home on 2026-08-28.
- Beat Getafe 3-0 at home on 2026-08-15.
Alavés attacker Toni Martínez reported right-soleus discomfort after the Villarreal match and faces a late fitness check.
His availability is unresolved, so Alavés may need to adjust their attacking selection if he is not fit. The lack of a formal diagnosis leaves the forward structure uncertain for Sunday.
- Noticias de Álava reported that Martínez experienced right-soleus discomfort in the Villarreal match.
- Alavés coach Quique Sánchez Flores said Martínez had felt a small soleus problem at half-time.
ReportedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 07:11 · Europe/BucharestNoticias de Álavawww.noticiasdealava.eus · 29 Aug 2026
Osasuna are fifth in La Liga with seven points from three matches.
They have two wins and a draw, but their attack has been quiet: one goal against Getafe, two against Celta Vigo, and none against Levante. Against an Alaves side that has kept two home clean sheets, Osasuna may struggle to create clear chances.
- Osasuna league record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 3 goals for, 1 against.
- Drew 0-0 with Levante at home on 2026-08-24.
- Won 1-0 against Getafe at home on 2026-08-31.
Osasuna midfielder Aimar Oroz suffered a left-hamstring injury against Getafe and is awaiting tests.
Oroz started 4 of the last 5 available lineups, so his potential absence would reduce Osasuna's options in central attacking areas. His availability remains unresolved ahead of the trip to Alavés.
- Osasuna said Oroz suffered an injury to the biceps femoris of his left leg against Getafe.
- The club said he will undergo tests at Clínica Universidad de Navarra and is pending further assessment.
- Aimar Oroz started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 07:11 · Europe/BucharestCA Osasunawww.osasuna.es · 31 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alaves or Draw

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Alaves' strong home record and the high draw rate in recent H2H meetings support the double chance, but the odds already reflect that probability.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown defensive solidity in recent league play, and the H2H average is only slightly above 2.5, supporting the under.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Alaves' perfect home record and strong defensive home form give them a structural edge, though Osasuna's solid away start keeps this close.
- Alaves home record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 4 goals scored, 0 conceded
- Alaves overall form last 3 league matches: WDW, 5 goals scored, 1 conceded
- Osasuna away record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses, 2 goals scored, 1 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlavesEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alaves' strong home form and the high draw rate in recent H2H meetings make the double chance a high-probability outcome.
- Alaves have not lost at home this season (2W, 0D, 0L)
- Osasuna have won only 1 of their last 5 away league matches (1W, 1D, 3L)
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 draws, 1 Alaves win, 1 Osasuna win
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAlaves or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to be level at half-time, and the H2H record supports a drawn first half.
- Alaves first-half results this season: 1W, 2D, 0L
- Osasuna first-half results this season: 1W, 1D, 1L
- H2H last 5 meetings: 2 draws at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a draw is possible, the lack of draws in either team's home/away record this season makes this a lower-probability exact outcome.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 draws overall
- Alaves home matches this season: 0 draws
- Osasuna away matches this season: 0 draws
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown defensive solidity in recent league play, and the H2H average is only slightly above 2.5, supporting the under.
- Alaves home league matches this season: 4 goals in 2 games (2.0 avg)
- Osasuna away league matches this season: 3 goals in 1 game (3.0 avg)
- H2H last 5 meetings: 2, 3, 2, 4, 3 total goals (avg 2.8)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been scoring consistently, and the H2H record shows a high frequency of both teams finding the net.
- Alaves have scored in all 3 league matches this season
- Osasuna have scored in 2 of 3 league matches this season
- H2H last 5 meetings: both teams scored in 4 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Alaves first-half goals this season: 0.7 per match average
- Osasuna first-half goals this season: 0.3 per match average
- Alaves first-half goals conceded: 0.4 per match average
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be more open in this matchup, with both teams scoring more after the break.
- Alaves second-half goals this season: 0.9 per match average
- Osasuna second-half goals this season: 0.8 per match average
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 had at least 2 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a total around 10, making over 9.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Alaves average corners per match: 5.8
- Osasuna average corners per match: 4.6
- Combined average corners: 10.4
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is slightly above 9, but variance makes this a near 50/50 call.
- Alaves average shots on target per match: 4.4
- Osasuna average shots on target per match: 4.9
- Combined average shots on target: 9.3
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance48%