Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano: result, stats and head-to-head

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rayo's historical dominance in this fixture and improved recent away form give them a slight edge, though Alaves' home resilience keeps it close.
- H2H last 9 La Liga: Rayo won 6, Alaves 3, no draws
- Rayo away form: W4 D4 L10, but recent 3 away: W2 D1 L0
- Alaves home form: W7 D6 L5, but only 1 win in last 5 home
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRayo VallecanoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Rayo's H2H superiority with Alaves' tendency to draw at home makes a Rayo win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- H2H last 9 La Liga: no draws, but Rayo won 6
- Alaves home draw rate: 33% (6/18)
- Rayo away draw rate: 22% (4/18), but 2 draws in last 3 away
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Rayo VallecanoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles with a high likelihood of being level at the break, reinforced by recent H2H halftime results.
- Alaves leadingAtHalfTime 33%, trailingAtHalfTime 27%
- Rayo leadingAtHalfTime 27%, trailingAtHalfTime 27%
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at halftime
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rayo's slightly better second-half performance and H2H trend of edging the later stages give them a marginal advantage.
- Rayo second-half goal difference +4 in last 15 matches
- Alaves second-half goal difference -2 in last 15 matches
- H2H last 5: Rayo won second half in 3 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableRayo VallecanoEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Rayo win is a plausible sequence given Alaves' home first-half stability and Rayo's historical second-half edge in this fixture.
- Alaves home HT draw rate: 44% (8/18)
- Rayo away FT win rate: 22% (4/18)
- H2H last 5: 2 matches followed Draw/Rayo pattern
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Rayo VallecanoEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern is overwhelmingly low-scoring, with 8 of 9 league meetings under 2.5, and both teams show strong defensive metrics in relevant splits.
- H2H last 9 La Liga meetings: 8 finished under 2.5 goals
- Alaves home goalsConceded avg 1.28, Rayo away goalsFor avg 0.83
- Rayo last 15 matches: 0.9 goalsConceded avg, 7 clean sheets
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H shows a clear trend of clean sheets, and Rayo's away defensive form supports at least one side failing to score.
- H2H last 9 La Liga meetings: 8 were wins to nil
- Rayo away clean sheets in 4 of last 6 away matches
- Alaves failed to score in 3 of last 5 home matches vs Rayo
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring averages, and recent H2H meetings often go scoreless before the break.
- Alaves firstHalfGoals avg 0.7, firstHalfGoalsConceded 0.7
- Rayo firstHalfGoals avg 0.5, firstHalfGoalsConceded 0.5
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were 0-0 at halftime
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more after halftime, and the H2H pattern shows goals typically arrive in the second period.
- Alaves second-half goals in 12 of last 15 matches
- Rayo second-half goals in 10 of last 15 matches
- H2H last 5: all matches had at least one second-half goal
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate moderate corner counts, and recent H2H meetings have stayed under 10 corners, suggesting a low total.
- Alaves home corners avg 4.8, opponentCorners avg 5.1
- Rayo away corners avg 5.4, opponentCorners avg 5.2
- H2H last 5: total corners averaged 8.4 per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have above-average card counts, and the competitive nature of this fixture historically produces over 4.5 cards.
- Alaves home yellow cards avg 2.9, opponentYellowCards avg 2.7
- Rayo away yellow cards avg 2.7, opponentYellowCards avg 2.5
- H2H last 5: total cards averaged 5.2 per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Alaves	37	11	10	16	43-54	43	WWDLW
8	Rayo Vallecano	37	11	14	12	39-43	47	WDDWD

Alaves1Rayo Vallecano2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Rayo Vallecano

Draw or Rayo Vallecano

Draw

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Alaves

Rayo Vallecano

Squad & Injuries

Alaves

Rayo Vallecano