La LigaFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Osasuna1Atletico Madrid2

HT 0–1Tue 12 May 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–820%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 23–5On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 8–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 May 2026, 22:54 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring, tight affair is expected as motivated Osasuna host a depleted and demoralized Atletico Madrid.

The best betting value is on Under 2.5 goals (70% estimated probability vs. 51.3% implied) and Both Teams to Score – No (60% vs. 45.5% implied), with a halftime draw also offering an edge.

Context

Julian Alvarez (ankle) and Nico Gonzalez (muscle) are both out, removing two of Atletico's top scorers.
- Midfielders Baena (suspension), Barrios (muscle), and Cardoso (contusion) are also missing.
- Defenders Gimenez and Molina are out, forcing a reshuffled backline.
- In total, eight first-team players are unavailable for this match.
Osasuna are within reach of the European places with three matches remaining.
- Atletico are already guaranteed a top-four finish and are mainly chasing a 70-point target.
- Local previews note Osasuna have the sharper competitive incentive.
- Atletico's recent focus has been on cup competitions, with league form suffering.
Atletico won 1-0 at home in October 2025.
- Osasuna won 2-0 at home in May 2025.
- Atletico won 1-0 at home in January 2025.
- All three matches saw the losing side fail to score.
Atletico lost 1-0 at Celta Vigo, 3-2 at Elche, 2-1 at Sevilla, and 3-2 at Real Madrid in their last five away games.
- The only away win in that span was a 2-0 victory at Valencia.
- Osasuna have lost only three home league matches all season.
- Osasuna's home record includes wins over Real Madrid and Sevilla.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's strong home form (only 3 losses) contrasts with Atletico's poor away record (7 losses), and motivation asymmetry favors Osasuna chasing European qualification while Atletico have little to play for.
- Osasuna home record: 9W-5D-3L (29GF, 20GA) in 17 home matches this season.
- Atletico away record: 5W-5D-7L (20GF, 21GA) in 17 away matches this season.
- Osasuna last 5 home matches: W-D-W-D-W (vs Sevilla, Real Betis, Girona, Mallorca, Real Madrid).
- Atletico last 5 away matches: L-W-L-L-L (vs Celta Vigo, Valencia, Elche, Sevilla, Real Madrid).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOsasunaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's strong home resilience (only 3 losses in 17) combined with Atletico's extensive injury list and poor away form makes Osasuna or Draw highly probable.
- Osasuna home record: 9W-5D-3L, meaning 82% of home matches without defeat.
- Atletico away record: 5W-5D-7L, meaning only 29% away wins.
- Last 3 H2H at Osasuna: Osasuna won 2-0 (May 2025), lost 0-1 (Jan 2025), won 2-0 (Sep 2023).
- Atletico missing key players: Alvarez, Baena, Barrios, Gimenez, Molina among 8 absentees.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostOsasuna or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half win rates, and the H2H pattern of goalless first halves makes a halftime draw the most likely outcome.
- Osasuna home first half results: led at HT in 27% of last 15 matches, trailed in 20%.
- Atletico away first half results: led at HT in 27% of last 15 matches, trailed in 40%.
- Last 3 H2H first halves: all ended 0-0.
- Osasuna home matches: 10 of 17 (59%) were level at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's home second-half resilience and Atletico's poor away second halves, combined with motivation, give Osasuna a slight edge, but the overall low-scoring nature limits confidence.
- Osasuna home second half record: won 6, drawn 6, lost 5 in 17 home matches.
- Atletico away second half record: won 4, drawn 5, lost 8 in 17 away matches.
- Last H2H at Osasuna: Osasuna won second half 1-0 (May 2025).
- Motivation edge: Osasuna chasing European spots, Atletico with little to play for.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableOsasunaEstimated chance35%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The recent H2H pattern of low-scoring, clean-sheet results aligns with Atletico's attacking absences and Osasuna's decent home defensive record, supporting BTTS No.
- Last 3 H2H meetings: 1-0, 2-0, 1-0 – all clean sheets for one side.
- Osasuna home clean sheets: 6 in 17 home matches (35%).
- Atletico away failed to score in 6 of 17 away matches (35%).
- Atletico missing key attackers: Alvarez (ankle), Gonzalez (muscle) – 2 of top scorers absent.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits strongly trend toward low-scoring affairs, reinforced by the H2H history of tight, defensive matches, making Under 2.5 the clear expectation.
- Last 3 H2H meetings: all under 2.5 goals (1-0, 2-0, 1-0).
- Osasuna home matches: 11 of 17 (65%) had under 2.5 goals.
- Atletico away matches: 11 of 17 (65%) had under 2.5 goals.
- Osasuna average home goals: 1.71 scored, 1.18 conceded; Atletico away: 1.18 scored, 1.24 conceded.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's home clean sheet rate and Atletico's attacking injuries give a moderate chance, but Atletico still have quality to score, so confidence is low.
- Osasuna home clean sheets: 6 in 17 (35%).
- Atletico away failed to score in 6 of 17 (35%).
- Atletico missing key attackers: Alvarez, Gonzalez, Simeone – significant goal threat absent.
- Last H2H at Osasuna: Osasuna kept a clean sheet in a 2-0 win (May 2025).
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAtletico Madrid not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and the H2H pattern of goalless first halves strongly supports Under 1.5 goals in the first half.
- Osasuna first half goals at home: average 0.6 scored, 0.6 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Atletico first half goals away: average 0.9 scored, 0.9 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Last 3 H2H first halves: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0 – no goals in any.
- Osasuna home matches: 12 of 17 (71%) had under 1.5 first half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While overall match is low-scoring, second halves tend to open up slightly, and H2H history shows goals after halftime, but the evidence is mixed, so confidence is low.
- Osasuna home second half goals: average 1.1 scored, 0.6 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Atletico away second half goals: average 0.8 scored, 0.8 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Last 3 H2H second halves: 1 goal, 2 goals, 1 goal – all had at least 1 goal, 2 of 3 had over 1.5.
- Osasuna home matches: 9 of 17 (53%) had over 1.5 second half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average moderate corner counts, and the H2H history shows low corner totals, supporting Under 9.5 corners.
- Osasuna average corners per home match: 4.0 (last 15 matches).
- Atletico average corners per away match: 4.7 (last 15 matches).
- Combined average corners in Osasuna home matches: 8.7.
- Last 3 H2H corners: 5, 7, 6 – all under 9.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent card averages that sum to over 4.5, and the H2H meetings have been physical, making Over 4.5 cards likely.
- Osasuna average yellow cards at home: 2.2 per match (last 15 matches).
- Atletico average yellow cards away: 2.4 per match (last 15 matches).
- Combined average cards in Osasuna home matches: 4.6.
- Last 3 H2H cards: 5, 4, 6 – all at or over 4.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L1-0Atletico MadridvOsasunaOct 18, 2025LL

W2-0OsasunavAtletico MadridMay 15, 2025LL

L1-0Atletico MadridvOsasunaJan 12, 2025LL

W1-4Atletico MadridvOsasunaMay 19, 2024LL

L0-2OsasunavAtletico MadridSep 28, 2023LL

Atletico Madrid: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Osasuna	35	11	9	15	42-45	42	LLWLD
4	Atletico Madrid Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	35	19	6	10	58-38	63	LWWLL

21pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Osasuna

L2-3LevanteMay 8LL

L1-2BarcelonaMay 2LL

W2-1SevillaApr 26LL

L0-1Athletic ClubApr 21LL

D1-1Real BetisApr 12LL

D2-2AlavesApr 5LL

W1-0GironaMar 21LL

L1-3Real SociedadMar 15LL

D2-2MallorcaMar 7LL

L0-1ValenciaMar 1LL

W2-1Real MadridFeb 21LL

D0-0ElcheFeb 13LL

W2-1Celta VigoFeb 6LL

D2-2VillarrealJan 31LL

W3-1Rayo VallecanoJan 24LL

Atletico Madrid

L0-1Celta VigoMay 9LL

L0-1ArsenalMay 5UEF

W2-0ValenciaMay 2LL

D1-1ArsenalApr 29UEF

W3-2Athletic ClubApr 25LL

L2-3ElcheApr 22LL

L1-2BarcelonaApr 14UEF

L1-2SevillaApr 11LL

W2-0BarcelonaApr 8UEF

L1-2BarcelonaApr 4LL

L2-3Real MadridMar 22LL

L2-3TottenhamMar 18UEF

W1-0GetafeMar 14LL

W5-2TottenhamMar 10UEF

W3-2Real SociedadMar 7LL

Squad & Injuries

Osasuna

4 out

Attackers2/9

×#21

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2/3

×#1

#1 S. Herrera — Red Card

#21 V. Munoz — Muscle Injury

#1 S. Herrera — Red Card

#21 V. Munoz — Muscle Injury

Atletico Madrid

16 out

Attackers4/8

×#19

×#23

×#19

×#23

Midfielders8/15

×#10

×#8

×#5

×#20

×#10

×#8

×#5

×#20

Defenders4/11

×#2

×#16

×#2

×#16

Goalkeeper5

#19 J. Alvarez — Ankle Injury

#10 A. Baena — Yellow Cards

#8 P. Barrios — Muscle Injury

#5 J. Cardoso — Contusion

#2 J. M. Gimenez — Injury

#23 N. Gonzalez — Muscle Injury

#16 N. Molina — Muscle Injury

#20 G. Simeone — Hip Injury

#19 J. Alvarez — Ankle Injury

#10 A. Baena — Yellow Cards

#8 P. Barrios — Muscle Injury

#5 J. Cardoso — Contusion

#2 J. M. Gimenez — Injury

#23 N. Gonzalez — Muscle Injury

#16 N. Molina — Muscle Injury

#20 G. Simeone — Hip Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

No

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Osasuna or Draw

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Osasuna

Atletico Madrid

Squad & Injuries

Osasuna

Atletico Madrid