La LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Alaves2Athletic Bilbao4

HT 1–0Sat 2 May 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 7–9On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 4–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Apr 2026, 20:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Over 2.5 Goals (72% probability vs 50% implied) and Double Chance Home-or-Draw (72% vs 65% implied) as your primary edges—Alaves' relegation desperation and defensive fragility combined with Athletic's catastrophic away form (3 wins in 16) and lame-duck managerial situation create high-scoring volatility favoring the home side or a draw, not an away victory.

Context

Sánchez Flores appointed March 4, 2026 on a 2.5-year deal after Coudet departed to River Plate
- Alaves sit just 2 points above the La Liga relegation zone with 5 matches remaining
- Under Flores, Alaves have gone W2-D3-L2 in 7 La Liga matches — stabilizing but not yet safe
- Flores has extensive La Liga survival experience at Valencia, Getafe, and Espanyol
Edin Terzic confirmed as Valverde's replacement from July 2026 on a 2-year deal — announced publicly before this fixture
- Athletic have won only 3 of 16 La Liga away matches this season (W3-D3-L10)
- Athletic scored 0 goals in away losses at Getafe (0-2) and Girona (0-3) in recent weeks
- Athletic lost 2-3 away at Atletico Madrid on April 25 despite leading at half-time
Alaves average 15.1 fouls/game and Athletic 13.8 fouls/game — combined 28.9 fouls per match
- Alaves have accumulated 3 red cards in their last 10 matches; Athletic have received 1 red in last 10
- Alaves received 6 yellow cards in matches against both Valencia and Levante recently
- Athletic picked up 5 yellows in their Copa del Rey clash vs Real Sociedad (another Basque derby)
Alaves trailed at HT in 4 of their last 10 matches but recovered to win vs Mallorca (0-1 HT → 2-1 FT) and Celta Vigo (1-3 HT → 4-3 FT)
- Alaves score only 0.7 first-half goals/game vs 1.1 second-half goals/game in recent matches
- Athletic also trail at HT in 40% of recent matches, suggesting both teams are slow starters
- The January 2026 H2H (3-2 Athletic) featured a first-half lead change, fitting the chaotic pattern

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Alaves' huge relegation motivation under a new manager at home, combined with Athletic's historically poor away form (10 losses in 16), gives the home side a meaningful edge despite Athletic's overall H2H superiority.
- Alaves home record: 6W-6D-4L (16 games), 21GF-19GA this season
- Athletic away: 3W-3D-10L (16 games), only 0.94 GF/game on road
- Alaves 2 points above relegation — enormous must-win motivation
- Athletic in lame-duck transition with Valverde departing end of season
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlavesEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic's abysmal 18.75% away win rate, coupled with their lame-duck managerial situation and Alaves' strong home resilience and survival desperation, makes an Athletic away win the least likely of the three outcomes.
- Athletic won only 3 of 16 away La Liga matches (18.75% win rate)
- Alaves lost only 4 of 16 home La Liga matches this season
- Athletic averaging just 0.9 goals/game in recent form
- Alaves' relegation desperation provides significant motivational edge
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAlaves or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are defensively porous (combined 3.5+ goals/game recently), Alaves' relegation desperation ensures attacking intent, and Athletic's dismal away defensive record (1.81 GA/away game) amplifies the scoring expectation.
- Alaves last 5 matches ALL had 3+ total goals (3,3,6,4,7 goals)
- Alaves average 1.8 GF + 2.0 GA = 3.8 total goals/game in last 10
- Athletic away record: 15GF + 29GA in 16 games = 2.75 total/game
- H2H recent meeting was 3-2 (Jan 2026); fixture tends to produce goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic's wretched away defense virtually guarantees Alaves will score at home under relegation pressure, while Alaves' own defensive fragility (2.0 GA/game) means Athletic should find at least one goal despite their low-scoring recent form.
- Alaves scored in all 5 recent matches (1.8 goals/game avg)
- Athletic concede 1.81 goals/game away (29 GA in 16 away matches)
- Alaves conceded in 9 of last 10 matches; Athletic scored in 4 of last 5
- Last H2H was 3-2; BTTS landed in recent meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent match patterns show consistent goal production above 2 per game, making Under 1.5 an extreme outlier given the combined defensive weaknesses and Alaves' attacking urgency.
- All 5 of Alaves' recent matches had 2+ goals
- All 5 of Athletic's recent matches had 2+ goals
- Combined season averages: Alaves 2.64 goals/home game, Athletic 2.75 goals/away game
- H2H last meeting produced 5 goals (3-2)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 1.5Estimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic's chronic inability to score on the road (under 1 goal/game average) and their overall offensive slump suggest they'll struggle to breach 1.5 goals even against a leaky Alaves defense.
- Athletic average only 0.94 GF/game away (15 goals in 16 away matches)
- Athletic's recent form: only 0.9 goals/game across last 10 matches
- Alaves concede 1.19 goals/game at home (19 GA in 16 home matches)
- Athletic scored 0 goals in 2 of last 5 away matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAthletic Bilbao under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low first-half scoring output (combined ~1.1 goals scored in first halves) suggests action concentrates in second halves, especially with Alaves likely to be cautious early under new manager at home.
- Athletic score only 0.4 first-half goals/game in recent form
- Alaves score only 0.7 first-half goals/game recently
- Combined first-half goals average: 1.1 FH goals scored, 1.5 FH conceded
- Alaves trailed at HT in 40% of recent matches; Athletic trailed at HT in 40%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alaves' chronic defensive fragility (conceding in 90% of recent matches) makes a clean sheet highly unlikely, even against a low-scoring Athletic side that still manages to find the net in most games.
- Alaves conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches
- Alaves home GA: 19 in 16 home games (1.19 GA/game)
- Athletic scored in 4 of their last 5 matches
- Alaves season-long goals conceded: 49 in 33 matches (1.48/game)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAthletic Bilbao to scoreEstimated chance75%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams commit high numbers of fouls (combined ~29/game) and receive elevated card counts, with the Basque derby tension and Alaves' relegation stakes likely intensifying physicality.
- Alaves average 2.9 yellows + 0.6 reds = 3.5 cards/game in last 10
- Athletic average 2.4 yellows + 1.0 reds = 3.4 cards/game in last 10
- Alaves average 15.1 fouls/game; Athletic 13.8 fouls/game — combined 28.9
- Basque derby atmosphere and relegation pressure elevate intensity
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic's tendency to generate corners when pressing forward (avg 6.0/game) combined with Alaves' own corner generation (5.1/game) puts the combined average comfortably above 8.5, though variance is notable.
- Alaves average 5.1 corners/game; opponents average ~5.4 corners vs them
- Athletic average 6.0 corners/game in recent form
- Athletic generated 15 corners vs Villarreal when chasing game
- Combined average suggests ~10-11 corners per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-1Athletic ClubvAlavesSep 13, 2025LL

W1-0AlavesvAthletic ClubJul 22, 2025FRI

L1-0Athletic ClubvAlavesMay 11, 2025LL

D1-1AlavesvAthletic ClubDec 15, 2024LL

L2-0Athletic ClubvAlavesMar 16, 2024LL

Alaves: 2 clean sheetsAthletic Bilbao: 2 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Alaves	33	9	9	15	38-49	36	WLDDW
10	Athletic Bilbao	33	12	5	16	36-48	41	LWLLW

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Alaves

W2-1MallorcaApr 25LL

L1-2Real MadridApr 21LL

D3-3Real SociedadApr 11LL

D2-2OsasunaApr 5LL

W4-3Celta VigoMar 22LL

D1-1VillarrealMar 13LL

L2-3ValenciaMar 8LL

L0-2LevanteFeb 27LL

D2-2GironaFeb 23LL

D1-1SevillaFeb 14LL

Athletic Bilbao

L2-3Atletico MadridApr 25LL

W1-0OsasunaApr 21LL

L1-2VillarrealApr 12LL

L0-2GetafeApr 5LL

W2-1Real BetisMar 22LL

L0-3GironaMar 14LL

L0-1BarcelonaMar 7LL

L0-1Real SociedadMar 4CDR

D1-1Rayo VallecanoFeb 28LL

W2-1ElcheFeb 20LL