Alaves
Market 37% · BetBugs 40%
Alaves are unbeaten in their last 3 home H2H vs Villarreal (2W,1D) and have won 3 of their last 5 home matches, while Villarreal have only 1 away win in their last 5.
La LigaFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Alaves hold a slight home edge and are unbeaten in their last three home H2H vs Villarreal, making them a marginal value pick at 2.70.
Both teams to score is likely but priced efficiently; avoid handicap markets due to negative value.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
AlavesMarket 37% · BetBugs 40%
Alaves are unbeaten in their last 3 home H2H vs Villarreal (2W,1D) and have won 3 of their last 5 home matches, while Villarreal have only 1 away win in their last 5.
Market 64.5% · BetBugs 65%
Alaves' home resilience and Villarreal's mixed away form make Alaves or Draw a solid double chance, though the market has priced it efficiently.
Market 59.9% · BetBugs 60%
Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings and each has scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 18% leaves no cushion vs our 15% estimate; price already reflects the directional read and the handicap is too aggressive for a team that rarely wins by multiple goals.
Alaves has fulfilled 2 of 4 recent Over 4.5 cards projections. The average estimated probability was 63%, but only 50% of matches went over. Current probability of 50% sits below the historical range of 55-72%.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AlavesChampions League league stage | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4-1 | 4 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 1 |

