La LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Elche1Alaves1

HT 0–0Sat 9 May 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 65%–35%ShotsShots 16–12On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 May 2026, 21:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Elche's strong home form (only 2 losses) clashes with Alaves' dreadful away record (11 losses), making an Elche win or draw highly probable.

Goals are likely, with both teams scoring a strong bet, and Alaves are very unlikely to keep a clean sheet. The best value lies in over 4.5 cards, where relegation intensity and high card averages create a 10.4-point edge.

Context

Alaves away record: 3W-3D-11L, 17 goals scored, 30 conceded in 17 matches.
- Only 2 clean sheets in 17 away games, conceding in 15 of 17.
- Last 5 away matches: 1W-1D-3L, conceding 2+ goals in 4 of those.
Elche home record: 8W-7D-2L, 28 goals scored, 18 conceded in 17 matches.
- Unbeaten in 15 of 17 home matches, scoring in 14 of 17.
- Last 5 home matches: 3W-1D-1L, including wins over Atletico Madrid and Valencia.
Lucas Boye is out with a muscle injury; he has been a regular starter in attack.
- Carles Alena is suspended due to yellow card accumulation, weakening midfield creativity.
- Alaves also miss defender Facundo Garces (suspended) and midfielder Carlos Protesoni (muscle injury).
Last 5 La Liga H2H results: 3-1 Alaves, 3-1 Elche, 1-0 Alaves, 2-0 Alaves, 2-0 Elche.
- No draw in the last five league meetings; three clean-sheet wins for the victor.
- Both teams scored in only 2 of those 5 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elche's strong home form (only 2 losses all season) contrasts sharply with Alaves' dreadful away record (11 losses in 17), giving Elche a clear structural home/away edge.
- Elche home record: 8W-7D-2L, 28 goals scored, 18 conceded in 17 matches
- Alaves away record: 3W-3D-11L, 17 goals scored, 30 conceded in 17 matches
- Elche last 5 home matches: 3W-1D-1L, including wins over Atletico Madrid and Valencia
- Alaves last 5 away matches: 1W-1D-3L, conceding 2+ goals in 4 of those
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostElcheEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elche's home resilience (only 2 defeats) and Alaves' away struggles make an Elche win or draw highly probable, supported by the home/away split signal.
- Elche home record: 8W-7D-2L, unbeaten in 15 of 17 home matches
- Alaves away record: 3W-3D-11L, failed to win in 14 of 17 away matches
- H2H last 5 La Liga meetings: no draws, but Elche won 2 of 3 at home vs Alaves historically
BetBugs · Double ChancewonElche or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half records, with Elche often drawing at home and Alaves drawing frequently away, suggesting a tight first half.
- Elche led at halftime in only 13% of matches overall, trailing in 33%
- Alaves led at halftime in 33% of matches, trailing in 27%
- Elche home matches: 6 draws at halftime in last 17
- Alaves away matches: 5 draws at halftime in last 17
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Elche's home advantage and Alaves' away struggles may tilt the second half in Elche's favor, though confidence is low due to limited direct second-half data.
- Elche home goal difference: +10 overall, suggesting stronger second halves at home
- Alaves away goal difference: -13, often conceding late
- Elche won second half in 3 of last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableElcheEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by an Elche win is a plausible scenario given Elche's home strength and Alaves' away collapses, though specific evidence is thin.
- Elche drew at halftime in 6 of 17 home matches, winning 8 overall
- Alaves drew at halftime in 5 of 17 away matches, losing 11 overall
- H2H pattern: no draw in last 5, but Elche won 2 of 3 home H2H
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/ElcheEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' defensive records, especially Alaves away (30 conceded in 17), combined with H2H history of high-scoring games, point to over 2.5 goals.
- Elche home matches average 2.71 total goals (28 scored, 18 conceded in 17 games)
- Alaves away matches average 2.76 total goals (17 scored, 30 conceded in 17 games)
- Last 5 H2H La Liga meetings: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
- Both teams have conceded 53 goals in 34 matches overall, indicating defensive vulnerability
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elche consistently scores at home, while Alaves' leaky away defense (30 conceded) and ability to score on the road make both teams scoring likely.
- Elche scored in 14 of 17 home matches this season
- Alaves scored in 12 of 17 away matches, but conceded in 15 of 17
- Last 5 H2H La Liga meetings: both teams scored in 3 of 5
- Elche's last 5 home matches: both teams scored in 4
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Elche's home defensive record (18 conceded in 17) and Alaves' away scoring consistency suggest Elche is unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- Elche kept only 4 clean sheets in 17 home matches
- Alaves failed to score in only 5 of 17 away matches
- Elche conceded in 13 of last 15 overall matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAlaves to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alaves' away defensive fragility (30 conceded, only 2 clean sheets) against Elche's consistent home scoring makes an away clean sheet very unlikely.
- Alaves kept only 2 clean sheets in 17 away matches
- Elche scored in 14 of 17 home matches, averaging 1.65 goals per home game
- Alaves conceded in 15 of 17 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonElche to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, and H2H history shows frequent first-half goals, making over 0.5 first-half goals probable.
- Elche home first-half goals: 0.6 scored, 0.9 conceded on average overall
- Alaves away first-half goals: 0.8 scored, 0.8 conceded on average overall
- Last 5 H2H La Liga meetings: 4 had a first-half goal
- Elche's last 5 home matches: first-half goal in 4
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate moderate corner counts, and recent home matches for Elche have seen elevated totals, suggesting over 8.5 corners is possible.
- Elche home corners average: 4.1 per match overall, but higher in recent home games (e.g., 13 vs Atletico, 10 vs Osasuna)
- Alaves away corners average: 4.8 per match overall, with 6+ in 3 of last 5 away
- Combined average corners in Elche home matches: ~9.2 based on limited data
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High card averages for both teams, especially Alaves, combined with the stakes of a relegation battle, make over 4.5 cards likely.
- Elche average 2.1 yellow cards per match, Alaves average 2.7
- Alaves away matches: 3+ cards in 4 of last 5
- H2H last 5 La Liga: 4+ cards in 4 of 5 meetings
- Relegation pressure likely to increase intensity and fouls
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L3-1AlavesvElcheOct 5, 2025LL

W3-1ElchevAlavesFeb 5, 2022LL

L1-0AlavesvElcheOct 26, 2021LL

W0-1AlavesvElcheJul 31, 2021FRI

L0-2ElchevAlavesMay 11, 2021LL

Alaves: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Elche	34	9	11	14	45-53	38	LWWWL
18	Alaves Relegation - LaLiga2	34	9	9	16	40-53	36	LWLDD

2pt gap between teamsAlaves in relegation zone

Recent Form

Elche

L1-3Celta VigoMay 3LL

W2-1OviedoApr 26LL

W3-2Atletico MadridApr 22LL

W1-0ValenciaApr 11LL

L0-1Rayo VallecanoApr 3LL

W2-1Aston VillaMar 27FRI

W2-1MallorcaMar 21LL

L1-4Real MadridMar 14LL

L1-2VillarrealMar 8LL

D2-2EspanyolMar 1LL

L1-2Athletic ClubFeb 20LL

D0-0OsasunaFeb 13LL

L1-3Real SociedadFeb 7LL

L1-3BarcelonaJan 31LL

L2-3LevanteJan 23LL

Alaves

L2-4Athletic ClubMay 2LL

W2-1MallorcaApr 25LL

L1-2Real MadridApr 21LL

D3-3Real SociedadApr 11LL

D2-2OsasunaApr 5LL

W4-3Celta VigoMar 22LL

D1-1VillarrealMar 13LL

L2-3ValenciaMar 8LL

L0-2LevanteFeb 27LL

D2-2GironaFeb 23LL

D1-1SevillaFeb 14LL

L0-2GetafeFeb 8LL

L2-3Real SociedadFeb 4CDR

W2-1EspanyolJan 30LL

W2-1Real BetisJan 25LL

Squad & Injuries

Elche

6 out

Attackers6/11

×#32

×#7

×#10

×#32

×#7

×#10

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

#32 A. Boayar — Muscle Injury

#7 Y. Santiago — Knee Injury

#10 R. Mir — Hamstring Injury

#32 A. Boayar — Muscle Injury

#7 Y. Santiago — Knee Injury

#10 R. Mir — Hamstring Injury

Alaves

8 out

Attackers2/6

×#15

Midfielders4/9

×#10

×#23

×#10

×#23

Defenders2/13

×#2

Goalkeeper4

#10 C. Alena — Yellow Cards

#15 L. Boye — Muscle Injury

#2 F. Garces — Suspended

#23 C. Protesoni — Muscle Injury

#10 C. Alena — Yellow Cards

#15 L. Boye — Muscle Injury

#2 F. Garces — Suspended

#23 C. Protesoni — Muscle Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Elche or Draw

Yes

Elche to score

Over 4.5

Over 0.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Elche

Alaves

Squad & Injuries

Elche

Alaves