La LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Alaves3Getafe0

HT 0–0Sat 15 Aug 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 18–6On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 01:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a tight, low-scoring opener with a high probability of under 2.5 goals and a draw, but the best betting value lies in under 9.5 corners (60% estimate vs. 54% implied) and over 4.5 cards (65% estimate vs. 60% implied).

Monitor Lucas Boyé’s fitness, as his absence would strengthen the case for a Getafe clean sheet or under on Alavés team goals.

Context

Sporting director confirmed Boyé's adductor issue on 10 August.
- Decision will be made after final training sessions.
- Boyé is a key forward for Alavés; his absence would force a reshuffle.
New signing Nicolás Valentini was described as fitting the three-centre-back system.
- Quique Sánchez Flores used this shape in pre-season friendlies.
- A back three could increase wing-back involvement and corner counts.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.70fair 2.86

BetBugs 35% · Market 37%

0.0ppshort

Low-scoring patterns and frequent draws in recent form, combined with a balanced H2H, suggest a stalemate is likely in this season opener.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low-scoring patterns and frequent draws in recent form, combined with a balanced H2H, suggest a stalemate is likely in this season opener.
- Alaves drew 5 of last 15 matches, including 3 of last 5 at home.
- Getafe drew 3 of last 15, with 2 draws in last 5 away friendlies.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 Getafe wins, 1 Alaves win; last meeting at Alaves was 0-2 Getafe.
- Both teams averaged under 1.0 goals conceded in recent form: Alaves 1.5, Getafe 0.9.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Alaves' strong home resilience and Getafe's inconsistent away record make the home side avoiding defeat a solid probability.
- Alaves lost only 3 of last 15 matches (W6 D6 L3).
- Getafe won only 5 of last 15, with 4 losses.
- Alaves home form: W3 D3 L1 in last 7 home matches across all competitions.
- Getafe away form: W2 D2 L3 in last 7 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAlaves or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring and frequent half-time draws in both teams' recent records suggest a level score at the break.
- Alaves led at half-time in 47% of matches, trailed in 27%.
- Getafe led at half-time in only 20% of matches, trailed in 33%.
- Alaves first-half results: W7 D5 L3 in last 15; Getafe: W3 D7 L5.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both intervals is a low-probability but possible outcome given the defensive nature of both sides and H2H patterns.
- Alaves had 5 draws in last 15, with 3 at half-time and full-time.
- Getafe had 3 draws in last 15, with 2 at half-time and full-time.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, both were 0-0 or 1-1 at half-time.
- Both teams show low scoring and high draw frequency.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently produce low-scoring games, and H2H history reinforces a tight, defensive encounter.
- Alaves last 15: 1.7 goals for, 1.5 against; 10 of 15 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Getafe last 15: 0.8 goals for, 0.9 against; 12 of 15 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams averaged under 1.0 first-half goals: Alaves 0.8, Getafe 0.3.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Getafe's goal-scoring struggles and Alaves' occasional defensive solidity, plus H2H trends, point to at least one side failing to score.
- Getafe failed to score in 6 of last 15 matches.
- Alaves kept 4 clean sheets in last 15, Getafe kept 7.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 1 match.
- Getafe averaged 0.8 goals per game; Alaves conceded 1.5 but Getafe's attack is weak.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Getafe's defensive record is strong, but Alaves' home scoring ability makes a clean sheet uncertain; still a plausible outcome given H2H.
- Getafe kept 7 clean sheets in last 15 matches.
- Alaves failed to score in 2 of last 15, but only 1 at home.
- H2H: Getafe kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 5 meetings, including the most recent at Alaves.
- Getafe conceded only 0.9 goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAlaves not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, with very low first-half scoring averages, making a quiet opening 45 minutes highly probable.
- Alaves first-half goals: 0.8 per game; first-half conceded: 0.6.
- Getafe first-half goals: 0.3 per game; first-half conceded: 0.4.
- In last 15, Alaves had 10 matches with under 1.5 first-half goals; Getafe had 13.
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low possession and modest corner averages from both teams point to a total corner count under 9.5.
- Alaves averaged 5.0 corners per game in last 15; Getafe averaged 3.7.
- Combined average corners: 8.7, with many matches below 9.5.
- In last 5 H2H with corner data (limited), matches averaged around 8 corners.
- Both teams have low possession (Alaves 41.8%, Getafe 41.1%), reducing corner opportunities.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are among the more physical sides in the league, leading to a high likelihood of multiple cards.
- Alaves averaged 3.0 yellow cards per game; Getafe averaged 3.0.
- Combined average yellow cards: 6.0, with red cards also frequent (Alaves 0.7, Getafe 0.7).
- In last 15, Alaves had 10 matches with over 4.5 cards; Getafe had 9.
- H2H last 5: card data unavailable, but both teams are physical (Alaves 14.2 fouls, Getafe 15.8).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 43% leaves no cushion vs our 40% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L0-2AlavesvGetafeFeb 8, 2026LL

D1-1GetafevAlavesSep 24, 2025LL

L0-1AlavesvGetafeFeb 9, 2025LL

L2-0GetafevAlavesSep 28, 2024LL

W1-0AlavesvGetafeMay 18, 2024LL

Getafe: 3 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Alaves Champions League league stage	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
7	Getafe UEFA ECL qualifying playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Alaves leads the leagueGetafe leads the league

Recent Form

Alaves

W3-0CastellónJul 31FRI

W1-0GironaJul 25FRI

D1-1EibarJul 18FRI

L1-2Rayo VallecanoMay 23LL

W1-0OviedoMay 17LL

W1-0BarcelonaMay 13LL

D1-1ElcheMay 9LL

L2-4Athletic ClubMay 2LL

W2-1MallorcaApr 25LL

L1-2Real MadridApr 21LL

D3-3Real SociedadApr 11LL

D2-2OsasunaApr 5LL

W4-3Celta VigoMar 22LL

D1-1VillarrealMar 13LL

L2-3ValenciaMar 8LL

Getafe

D1-1TottenhamAug 8FRI

L0-1MonacoAug 6FRI

L1-4Atletico MadridJul 29FRI

D0-0ValladolidJul 25FRI

W2-1TenerifeJul 22FRI

W1-0ReadingJul 17FRI

L0-2Rayo VallecanoMay 3LL

L0-2BarcelonaApr 25LL

W1-0Real SociedadApr 22LL

L0-1LevanteApr 13LL

W2-0Athletic ClubApr 5LL

Squad & Injuries

Alaves

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Getafe

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

Alaves3Getafe0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Draw

Alaves or Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 9.5

Under 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Alaves

Getafe

Squad & Injuries

Alaves

Getafe