La LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Levante3Osasuna2

HT 2–2Fri 8 May 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 35–5On targetOn target 12–3CornersCorners 15–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 May 2026, 21:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Levante's home uplift under Luis Castro and Osasuna's dreadful away form make a home win or draw likely, but the best value is in under 1.5 first-half goals (75% estimate vs.

72.5% implied) and both teams to score 'no' (55% vs. 47.6%). Expect a cagey, low-scoring match where Levante's motivation could prove decisive.

Context

Levante have won 5 of their last 6 home matches under Luis Castro, with the only loss coming against Villarreal.
- Before Castro's appointment, Levante had zero home wins in La Liga this season.
- The team has kept 3 clean sheets in those 6 home matches, showing improved defensive solidity.
Osasuna's away record this season: 2 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses in 17 matches.
- They have scored only 11 goals in those 17 away games, failing to score in 8 of them.
- Their away matches average only 1.94 total goals, with 11 of 17 having under 2.5 goals.
Levante are in the relegation zone with only a few matches remaining in the season.
- Osasuna are comfortably mid-table, 10 points clear of the relegation zone and unlikely to challenge for Europe.
- Levante's pre-match fan gathering initiative mirrors the build-up to their 3-2 win over Elche, suggesting a deliberate push to harness home support.
Last 5 H2H results: Osasuna 2-0 Levante, Osasuna 3-1 Levante, Levante 0-0 Osasuna, Levante 0-1 Osasuna, Osasuna 1-3 Levante.
- Osasuna have shut out Levante in 3 of those 5 matches.
- Levante's only win in the last 7 meetings against Osasuna was a 3-1 away victory in 2020.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levante's strong home form under Luis Castro and Osasuna's terrible away record, combined with Levante's relegation desperation, give the home side a clear edge despite Osasuna's historical H2H dominance.
- Levante have won 5 of their last 6 home matches under Luis Castro (since his arrival), with the only loss coming against Villarreal.
- Osasuna have the worst away record in La Liga this season: 2 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses in 17 away games, with only 11 goals scored and 22 conceded.
- Levante are in the relegation zone (19th) and need points desperately, while Osasuna sit 10th with little to play for, suggesting a motivation edge for the home side.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLevanteEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levante's home resilience under the new manager and Osasuna's dreadful away form make a home win or draw highly likely, with Levante's motivation further supporting this outcome.
- Levante have lost only 1 of their last 6 home matches (W5 D1 L1) under Luis Castro.
- Osasuna have won only 2 of 17 away league games this season, with 11 losses.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Levante have avoided defeat in 2 of the 5 (1 win, 1 draw), both at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLevante or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of halftime draws in recent form, and the H2H pattern supports a level first half, especially given the low first-half scoring rates.
- Levante have been drawing at halftime in 8 of their last 15 matches (53%), with only 2 leads and 5 deficits.
- Osasuna have been drawing at halftime in 8 of their last 15 matches (53%), with 4 leads and 3 deficits.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches were drawn at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levante's tendency to improve after halftime at home, combined with Osasuna's vulnerability in the second half on the road, gives Levante a slight edge to win the second half, though confidence is low due to small sample sizes.
- Levante have scored 0.8 second-half goals per match on average in their last 15, while Osasuna have conceded 0.8 second-half goals per match.
- Osasuna have lost the second half in 7 of their 17 away matches this season.
- Levante's home matches under Castro have seen them score more in the second half in 4 of the last 6 games.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableLevanteEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While the halftime draw is likely, Levante's ability to win the second half at home is only a moderate trend, making the Draw/Levante HT/FT double a low-probability but plausible outcome given Osasuna's poor away record.
- Levante have drawn at halftime and won the match in 2 of their last 15 games.
- Osasuna have drawn at halftime and lost the match in 3 of their last 15 games.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, this exact HT/FT combination has not occurred.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / LevanteEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's low-scoring away performances and the historically tight H2H encounters, combined with Levante's moderate home scoring, point to a low-scoring match.
- Levante's last 15 matches average 2.6 total goals (1.1 scored, 1.5 conceded), but their home matches under Castro have been tighter: 3 of the last 6 home games had under 2.5 goals.
- Osasuna's away matches this season average only 1.94 total goals (11 scored, 22 conceded in 17 games), with 11 of 17 away games having under 2.5 goals.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 matches had under 2.5 goals, including a 0-0 draw at Levante.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's away scoring struggles and Levante's improved home defense under Castro, along with the H2H trend of clean sheets, make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Osasuna have failed to score in 8 of their 17 away league games this season.
- Levante have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 home matches under Castro.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, at least one team failed to score in 4 of the 5 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, and the H2H history shows predominantly quiet first halves, making under 1.5 first-half goals a strong prediction.
- Levante average only 0.3 first-half goals in their last 15 matches, with 0.6 first-half goals conceded.
- Osasuna average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in their last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, only 1 match had more than 1 first-half goal (Osasuna 3-1 Levante in March 2022, which had 2 first-half goals).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and recent home matches for Levante and away matches for Osasuna trend below 9.5 total corners, supporting an under bet.
- Levante average 4.8 corners per match in their last 15, while Osasuna average 4.1 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in Levante's last 15 matches is 9.6, but in their last 5 home matches, the average total corners is 8.8.
- Osasuna's away matches this season average 8.5 total corners (3.8 for, 4.7 against).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent card averages that sum to over 4.5, and recent home matches for Levante have seen elevated card counts, likely due to the intensity of a relegation battle.
- Levante average 2.3 yellow cards per match in their last 15, while Osasuna also average 2.3 yellow cards.
- Combined average cards in Levante's last 15 matches is 4.6, with 5 of the last 6 home matches having over 4.5 cards.
- Osasuna's away matches this season average 4.8 total cards (2.4 for, 2.4 against).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L2-0OsasunavLevanteDec 8, 2025LL

L3-1OsasunavLevanteMar 19, 2022LL

D0-0LevantevOsasunaDec 5, 2021LL

L0-1LevantevOsasunaFeb 14, 2021LL

W1-3OsasunavLevanteSep 27, 2020LL

Osasuna: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
19	Levante Relegation - LaLiga2	34	8	9	17	38-55	33	LDWWL
10	Osasuna	34	11	9	14	40-42	42	LWLDD

9pt gap between teamsLevante in relegation zone

Recent Form

Levante

L1-5VillarrealMay 2LL

D0-0EspanyolApr 27LL

W2-0SevillaApr 23LL

W1-0GetafeApr 13LL

L0-2Real SociedadApr 4LL

W4-2OviedoMar 21LL

D1-1Rayo VallecanoMar 16LL

D1-1GironaMar 7LL

W2-0AlavesFeb 27LL

L0-3BarcelonaFeb 22LL

L0-1VillarrealFeb 18LL

L0-2ValenciaFeb 15LL

L2-4Athletic ClubFeb 8LL

D0-0Atletico MadridJan 31LL

W3-2ElcheJan 23LL

Osasuna

L1-2BarcelonaMay 2LL

W2-1SevillaApr 26LL

L0-1Athletic ClubApr 21LL

D1-1Real BetisApr 12LL

D2-2AlavesApr 5LL

W1-0GironaMar 21LL

L1-3Real SociedadMar 15LL

D2-2MallorcaMar 7LL

L0-1ValenciaMar 1LL

W2-1Real MadridFeb 21LL

D0-0ElcheFeb 13LL

W2-1Celta VigoFeb 6LL

D2-2VillarrealJan 31LL

W3-1Rayo VallecanoJan 24LL

W3-2OviedoJan 17LL

Squad & Injuries

Levante

35 available

Attackers7

Midfielders14

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Osasuna

32 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 1.5

No

Under 9.5

Over 4.5

Levante or Draw

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Levante

Osasuna

Squad & Injuries

Levante

Osasuna