Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna
Quick Take
Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna is a low-scoring regional rivalry with a strong H2H pattern of draws and clean sheets at San Mamés; first-half draws (2.10), under 2.5 goals (1.75), and under 1.5 home goals (1.75) offer clear +7.4pt to +14.9pt edges, while Athletic's 0.8 goals-per-game...
Context Signals
1st Half Result — Draw
HIGHMarketAthletic's extreme first-half impotence (0.2 goals/game, leading at HT in only 10% of matches) combined with H2H pattern of three consecutive 0-0 halves at San Mamés (2023, 2024, 2025) makes a drawn first half the clear favourite despite general home advantage.
- •Athletic first-half goals: 0.2/game last 10 matches
- •H2H at San Mamés: 0-0 (2025), 2-2 (2024), 0-0 (2023) — three draws
- •Athletic leading at HT: only 10% of recent matches; trailing: 50%
Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5
MEDIUMMarketAthletic's severe scoring crisis (0.8 goals/game) combined with consistently low-scoring H2H meetings at San Mamés (avg 1.33 goals in last 3 league visits) creates a high-probability under scenario.
- •Athletic score 0.8 goals/game over last 10; concede 1.4
- •Last 3 league H2H at San Mamés: 0-0, 2-2, 0-0 — two of three under 2.5
- •Osasuna away: 0.69 GF per game (lowest output in travel)
Total Goals Home — Under 1.5 (Athletic)
MEDIUMMarketAthletic's extreme goal drought across the last 10 matches (0.8/game) and three-match H2H pattern at San Mamés (scored 0, 2, 0) make under 1.5 for the home team a statistically robust edge.
- •Athletic averaged 0.8 goals/game over last 10 matches
- •Scored 0 in 4 of last 5 visible matches; only 1 match with 2+ goals
- •In 3 recent league H2H at San Mamés: 0 goals, 2 goals, 0 goals (avg 0.67)
1st Half Goals Over/Under — Under 0.5
MEDIUMMarketAthletic's near-nonexistent first-half attacking output (0.2 goals/game) and the repeated 0-0 HT pattern in this fixture (2 of 3 recent H2H at 0-0 HT) create a plausible goalless first half backed by clear evidence.
- •Athletic score only 0.2 first-half goals/game over last 10 matches
- •Last 3 league H2H at San Mamés: 0-0 at HT in at least 2 of 3
- •Athletic concede 0.6 first-half goals/game; Osasuna score 0.6 FH goals/game
Corners Over/Under — Over 9.5
MEDIUMMarketCombined corners profile of 10.3/game over the last 10 matches projects sustained pressure above the 9.5 baseline, especially given Athletic's home attacking patterns.
- •Athletic Bilbao avg 5.8 corners/game (last 10); Osasuna avg 4.5 corners/game
- •Combined average: 10.3 corners per match
- •Athletic's recent home volatility (15 vs Villarreal, 6 vs Betis, 4 vs Elche) confirms set-piece generation
Betting Edges
Implied: 55.6% → Our estimate: 67% → Edge: +11.4pts
- •Athletic Bilbao avg 5.8 corners/game (last 10); Osasuna avg 4.5 corners/game
- •Combined average: 10.3 corners per match
- •Athletic's recent home volatility (15 vs Villarreal, 6 vs Betis, 4 vs Elche) confirms set-piece generation
Implied: 55.6% → Our estimate: 65% → Edge: +9.4pts
- •Osasuna average 4.5 corners/game across all venues
- •Recent away corners: 1, 5, 3, 4, 3 — consistent mid-range contributor
- •H2H pattern shows balanced possession (Osasuna holds own away)
Implied: 47.6% → Our estimate: 55% → Edge: +7.4pts
- •Athletic first-half goals: 0.2/game last 10 matches
- •H2H at San Mamés: 0-0 (2025), 2-2 (2024), 0-0 (2023) — three draws
- •Athletic leading at HT: only 10% of recent matches; trailing: 50%
Implied: 57.1% → Our estimate: 72% → Edge: +14.9pts
- •Athletic averaged 0.8 goals/game over last 10 matches
- •Scored 0 in 4 of last 5 visible matches; only 1 match with 2+ goals
- •In 3 recent league H2H at San Mamés: 0 goals, 2 goals, 0 goals (avg 0.67)
Implied: 57.1% → Our estimate: 63% → Edge: +5.9pts
- •Athletic score 0.8 goals/game over last 10; concede 1.4
- •Last 3 league H2H at San Mamés: 0-0, 2-2, 0-0 — two of three under 2.5
- •Osasuna away: 0.69 GF per game (lowest output in travel)
Implied: 38% → Our estimate: 48% → Edge: +10pts
- •Athletic score only 0.2 first-half goals/game over last 10 matches
- •Last 3 league H2H at San Mamés: 0-0 at HT in at least 2 of 3
- •Athletic concede 0.6 first-half goals/game; Osasuna score 0.6 FH goals/game
Model probabilities
Osasuna's terrible away win rate (12.5%) and inability to win at San Mamés in the league make an away victory unlikely, supporting home or draw at strong probability.
Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Strong lean
Both teams are among the more physical sides with a combined 4.8 yellow cards/game average, and the rivalry context should maintain or elevate the foul count above typical levels.
Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean
Athletic's severe scoring crisis across their last 10 (0.8/game) and repeated blanks against Osasuna at San Mamés make under 1.5 home goals a statistically well-supported prediction.
Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean
Athletic's severe scoring drought (0.8/game) combined with consistently low-scoring H2H meetings at San Mamés (avg 1.33 goals in last 3 league visits) strongly favors under 2.5 goals.
Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Lean
Athletic's leaky defense (1.4 goals conceded/game recently) and Osasuna's ability to find the net even in tight H2H fixtures makes an Athletic clean sheet unlikely.
Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean
Combined corner averages of 10.3/game comfortably clear the 8.5 line, and Athletic's home attacking patterns (even when struggling to score) generate set-piece opportunities.
Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean
Athletic's extreme first-half impotence (0.2 goals/game) combined with the H2H pattern of slow-starting matches at San Mamés makes a drawn first half the clear favorite.
Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Slight lean
Athletic's finishing crisis (scored 0 in 4 of 5 recent matches) and Osasuna's low away output create a plausible clean sheet scenario for either side, supported by two 0-0 draws in recent H2H.
Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean
Athletic's near-nonexistent first-half attacking output (0.2 goals/game) and the repeated 0-0 HT pattern in this fixture suggest a goalless first half is the most common single outcome.
Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip
The dominant H2H pattern at San Mamés (3 straight league draws) combined with Athletic's dire finishing form (0.8 goals/game) makes a draw the single most likely outcome despite general home advantage.
Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip
Markets to Avoid
Recent Form
Athletic Bilbao
Osasuna
League Table
La Liga 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Athletic Bilbao | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 33-45 | 38 |
| 9 | Osasuna | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 37-38 | 39 |