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Predictions graded

Athletic Bilbao1Osasuna0

HT 1–0Tue 21 Apr 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 35%–65%ShotsShots 7–8On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Apr 2026, 13:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna is a low-scoring regional rivalry with a strong H2H pattern of draws and clean sheets at San Mamés; first-half draws (2.10), under 2.5 goals (1.75), and under 1.5 home goals (1.75) offer clear +7.4pt to +14.9pt edges, while Athletic's 0.8 goals-per-game drought and Osasuna's tight away form argue against home-win and both-teams-to-score markets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The dominant H2H pattern at San Mamés (3 straight league draws) combined with Athletic's dire finishing form (0.8 goals/game) makes a draw the single most likely outcome despite general home advantage.
- Last 3 league meetings at San Mamés: 0-0, 2-2, 0-0 — all draws
- Athletic form LLWLL (last 5 league), scoring just 0.8 goals/game over last 10
- Osasuna away record 2W-4D-10L but unbeaten at San Mamés in league since at least 2023
- Only 1 point separates the teams in the table (38 vs 39)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance33%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's terrible away win rate (12.5%) and inability to win at San Mamés in the league make an away victory unlikely, supporting home or draw at strong probability.
- Athletic home record: 8W-2D-6L this season, 50% win rate at home
- Osasuna away record: 2W-4D-10L (only 12.5% away win rate in league)
- Osasuna score only 0.69 goals/game away from home (11 in 16)
- H2H: Osasuna have not won a league match at San Mamés in recent history (draws only)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAthletic Bilbao or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic's extreme first-half impotence (0.2 goals/game) combined with the H2H pattern of slow-starting matches at San Mamés makes a drawn first half the clear favorite.
- Athletic first-half goals: 0.2/game (last 10), first-half conceded: 0.6/game
- Athletic leading at HT: only 10% of recent matches; trailing: 50%
- H2H at San Mamés: repeated 0-0 half-time scorelines in recent league meetings
- Osasuna's first-half goals average: 0.6, first-half conceded: 0.6 — balanced
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic's severe scoring drought (0.8/game) combined with consistently low-scoring H2H meetings at San Mamés (avg 1.33 goals in last 3 league visits) strongly favors under 2.5 goals.
- Last 3 league H2H at San Mamés: 0-0, 2-2, 0-0 — two of three under 2.5
- Athletic score 0.8 goals/game over last 10 matches; concede 1.4
- Osasuna away: 0.69 GF and 1.31 GA per away game this season
- Combined expected goals roughly 1.5-2.1 per game based on recent form
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic's finishing crisis (scored 0 in 4 of 5 recent matches) and Osasuna's low away output create a plausible clean sheet scenario for either side, supported by two 0-0 draws in recent H2H.
- 2 of last 3 league H2H at San Mamés ended 0-0 (both teams failed to score)
- Athletic averaging only 0.8 goals/game over last 10, blanked in 4 of last 5 visible matches
- Osasuna away: only 11 goals in 16 away matches (0.69/game)
- Athletic kept a clean sheet vs Osasuna in March 2025 (0-0) and Jan 2023 (0-0)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Athletic's near-nonexistent first-half attacking output (0.2 goals/game) and the repeated 0-0 HT pattern in this fixture suggest a goalless first half is the most common single outcome.
- Athletic score only 0.2 first-half goals/game over last 10 matches
- Athletic concede 0.6 first-half goals/game; Osasuna score 0.6 first-half goals/game
- Last 3 league H2H at San Mamés half-time results: 0-0 at HT in at least 2 of 3
- Athletic trailing at half-time in 50% of recent matches but often from single-goal deficits
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic's leaky defense (1.4 goals conceded/game recently) and Osasuna's ability to find the net even in tight H2H fixtures makes an Athletic clean sheet unlikely.
- Athletic conceded in 8 of last 10 matches (1.4 goals conceded/game)
- Athletic home record: 19 goals conceded in 16 home games (1.19/game)
- Osasuna scored in 4 of their last 5 matches overall
- H2H: Osasuna scored 2 at San Mamés in May 2024 (2-2 draw)
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostOsasuna to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic's severe scoring crisis across their last 10 (0.8/game) and repeated blanks against Osasuna at San Mamés make under 1.5 home goals a statistically well-supported prediction.
- Athletic averaging only 0.8 goals/game over last 10 matches
- Athletic scored 0 in 4 of their last 5 matches; only 1 match with 2 goals
- In 3 recent league H2H at San Mamés: Athletic scored 0, 2, 0 (avg 0.67)
- Season home record: 20 goals in 16 home games (1.25/game)
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAthletic Bilbao under 1.5Estimated chance72%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are among the more physical sides with a combined 4.8 yellow cards/game average, and the rivalry context should maintain or elevate the foul count above typical levels.
- Athletic average 2.3 yellows/game; Osasuna average 2.5 yellows/game (last 10)
- Combined fouls average: 29.6/game (Athletic 14.6, Osasuna 15.0)
- Osasuna had 5 yellows + 1 red vs Alaves; 3 yellows vs Betis recently
- Basque regional rivalry context adds combative intensity (intel confirmed)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages of 10.3/game comfortably clear the 8.5 line, and Athletic's home attacking patterns (even when struggling to score) generate set-piece opportunities.
- Athletic average 5.8 corners/game (last 10); Osasuna average 4.5 corners/game
- Combined average: 10.3 corners per game
- Athletic's last home match: 15 corners (vs Villarreal); 6 vs Betis at home
- Osasuna recent corners: 6, 1, 6, 5, 8 — variable but contributing
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance57%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D1-1OsasunavAthletic ClubJan 3, 2026LL

D0-0Athletic ClubvOsasunaMar 30, 2025LL

W2-3Athletic ClubvOsasunaJan 16, 2025CDR

W1-2OsasunavAthletic ClubDec 21, 2024LL

L2-1Athletic ClubvOsasunaAug 3, 2024FRI

2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Athletic Bilbao	31	11	5	15	33-45	38	LLWLL
9	Osasuna	31	10	9	12	37-38	39	DDWLD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Athletic Bilbao

L1-2VillarrealApr 12LL

L0-2GetafeApr 5LL

W2-1Real BetisMar 22LL

L0-3GironaMar 14LL

L0-1BarcelonaMar 7LL

L0-1Real SociedadMar 4CDR

D1-1Rayo VallecanoFeb 28LL

W2-1ElcheFeb 20LL

W2-1OviedoFeb 15LL

L0-1Real SociedadFeb 11CDR

Osasuna

D1-1Real BetisApr 12LL

D2-2AlavesApr 5LL

W1-0GironaMar 21LL

L1-3Real SociedadMar 15LL

D2-2MallorcaMar 7LL

L0-1ValenciaMar 1LL

W2-1Real MadridFeb 21LL

D0-0ElcheFeb 13LL

W2-1Celta VigoFeb 6LL

D2-2VillarrealJan 31LL

Squad & Injuries

Athletic Bilbao

39 available

Attackers8

Midfielders14

Defenders14

Goalkeeper3

Osasuna

32 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Athletic Bilbao1Osasuna0

Quick Take

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Under 0.5

Over 9.5

Osasuna over 3.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Athletic Bilbao

Osasuna

Squad & Injuries

Athletic Bilbao

Osasuna