Serie BFull time

Predictions graded

Criciuma2Cuiaba MT0

HT 1–0Fri 4 Sept 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 8–11On targetOn target 1–0CornersCorners 4–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 18:35 · Europe/Bucharest

Criciúma's home dominance and Cuiabá's solid away form point to a tight, low-scoring affair.

The only clear betting edge is Under 0.5 first-half goals at odds around 2.20, where the model estimates a 55% probability against a 45.5% implied chance. Avoid the heavily juiced double chance, match winner, and under 2.5 goals markets, as they offer negative expected value.

Context

Criciuma sit third in Serie B with 44 points, just one point behind leaders Juventude, and are in the promotion play-off places.
Their recent form is concerning: they lost 2-1 away to CRB on August 30, 2-0 at home to Fortaleza EC on August 23, and 2-0 away to Athletic Club on August 9. However, they have won seven of twelve home matches this season, so their home strength may offset the poor run. The dip could be temporary, but it suggests vulnerability against a solid Cuiaba side.
- Lost 2-1 away to CRB on 2026-08-30.
- Lost 2-0 at home to Fortaleza EC on 2026-08-23.
- Lost 2-0 away to Athletic Club on 2026-08-09.
Cuiaba sit 11th with 36 points, eight points behind Criciuma, and are not in immediate promotion contention.
Cuiaba's recent run includes a 2-1 away win over Botafogo SP on August 29, a 1-1 home draw with Goias on August 22, and a 1-0 home win over Operario-PR on August 19. They have been difficult to beat, losing only five times in 25 league matches. This resilience could make them a tough opponent for Criciuma.
- Won 2-1 away to Botafogo SP on 2026-08-29.
- Drew 1-1 at home with Goias on 2026-08-22.
- Won 1-0 at home against Operario-PR on 2026-08-19.
Criciúma attacker Fellipe Mateus missed the two training sessions before the CRB match with thigh discomfort and was expected to sit out that 30 August game.
His availability for this visit from Cuiabá remains unresolved, so Criciúma may have to adjust their attacking structure if he is not fit. The lack of a newer update means his status should be treated as a watch rather than a confirmed absence.
- Ge reported that Fellipe Mateus missed the two pre-CRB training sessions with thigh discomfort.
- The same report said he was expected to be absent for the 30 August match at CRB.
To watchSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 18:33 · Europe/BucharestGe: CRB x Criciúma preview and squad newsge.globo.com · 30 Aug 2026
Criciuma's home form has been a key factor in their promotion push.
At home, Criciuma have scored 13 goals and conceded only 6 in 12 matches. Their only home defeat came against Fortaleza EC on August 23. This solid home base suggests they will be confident of getting a result against Cuiaba.
- Home record: 7 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss in 12 matches.
- Scored 13 goals and conceded 6 at home.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Criciuma or Draw

1.20fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Criciuma have lost only once at home all season, making a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds offer no value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have strong defensive records at home/away respectively, and recent meetings have been low-scoring.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.50fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Criciuma's home defense is excellent, and Cuiaba's away scoring is modest, making a clean sheet for the hosts plausible.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.09fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 91.7%

0.0ppshort

Most goals in these teams' matches come after halftime, with a combined second-half average above one goal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's strong home form and Cuiaba's modest away record give the hosts an edge, though Cuiaba's recent unbeaten run tempers confidence.
- Criciuma home record: 7W 4D 1L in 12, 13 goals scored, 6 conceded
- Criciuma last 5 home matches: 4W 1D 0L
- Cuiaba away record: 4W 5D 3L in 12, 12 goals scored, 10 conceded
- H2H last 5: Criciuma 1W, Cuiaba 2W, 2D; but Criciuma won last home meeting 1-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCriciumaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Criciuma have lost only once at home all season, making a home win or draw highly likely.
- Criciuma home record: 7W 4D 1L in 12
- Cuiaba away record: 4W 5D 3L in 12
- Criciuma last 5 home matches: 4W 1D 0L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCriciuma or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring and balanced first-half performances make a halftime draw the most likely outcome.
- Criciuma leading at halftime at home: 50%
- Cuiaba trailing at halftime away: 25%
- Criciuma first half goals at home: 0.58, conceded 0.17
- Cuiaba first half goals away: 0.42, conceded 0.50
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Criciuma often improve after a level first half at home, but the probability remains modest.
- Criciuma home record when drawing at halftime: 3W 2D 0L
- Cuiaba away record when drawing at halftime: 2W 3D 1L
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/CriciumaEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong defensive records at home/away respectively, and recent meetings have been low-scoring.
- Criciuma home goals per game: 1.08, conceded 0.50
- Cuiaba away goals per game: 1.00, conceded 0.83
- Criciuma last 5 home matches: 4 wins with 1-0 or 2-0 scorelines
- Cuiaba last 5 away matches: 2W 2D 1L, total goals 7 in 5 (1.4 per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Criciuma's home defense is excellent, and Cuiaba's away scoring is modest, making a clean sheet for the hosts plausible.
- Criciuma home clean sheets: 7 in 12 (58%)
- Cuiaba away failed to score: 4 in 12 (33%)
- Criciuma conceded only 6 goals in 12 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring rates, especially at Criciuma's home.
- Criciuma first half goals at home: 0.58 per game
- Cuiaba first half goals away: 0.42 per game
- Criciuma first half goals conceded at home: 0.17 per game
- Cuiaba first half goals conceded away: 0.50 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most goals in these teams' matches come after halftime, with a combined second-half average above one goal.
- Criciuma second half goals at home: 0.50 per game
- Cuiaba second half goals away: 0.58 per game
- Combined second half average: 1.08 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, suggesting a total above 9.5 is plausible.
- Criciuma average corners at home: 6.6
- Cuiaba average corners away: 6.7
- Combined average corners: 13.3
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Criciuma consistently earn over 5.5 corners at home, with recent matches supporting this trend.
- Criciuma average corners at home: 6.6
- Criciuma last 5 home matches corners: 7, 5, 2, 7, 7
BetBugs · Home CornerslostCriciuma over 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cuiaba's away corner count is high, and they have exceeded 4.5 in most recent away games.
- Cuiaba average corners away: 6.7
- Cuiaba last 5 away matches corners: 4, 4, 5, 3, 11
BetBugs · Away CornerslostCuiaba MT over 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is slightly below 4.5, but the competitive nature of the match could push cards higher.
- Criciuma average yellow cards at home: 2.3
- Cuiaba average yellow cards away: 1.8
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.1
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 56% exceeds our 45% estimate; the home side is overpriced relative to our model.

Prediction history

Criciuma has been highly reliable when projected to win

Criciuma has fulfilled 5 of 7 win predictions. The missed predictions were both draws, with no losses. The current probability of 45% is within the historical range of 42-65%.

Recent evidence for Criciuma7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Serie B