Goias2Sao Bernardo FC SP1

HT 1–0Fri 28 Aug 2026, 22:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 14–11On targetOn target 4–4CornersCorners 4–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 23:52 · Europe/Bucharest

The market overprices Goiás (1.75, implied 57% vs model 38%) and the double chance (1.18, implied 85% vs model 68%).

The only positive edge is Both Teams to Score: Yes at 2.05 (model 52%, +3.2 points). Avoid first-half markets, especially Under 1.5 goals at 1.29 (implied 77.5% vs model 62%).

Context

Catalá departed by mutual agreement after 10 matches without a win.
- The club said recent negative results accelerated the decision.
- The change came one month before this fixture, giving the new coach limited time.
Goiás officially announced the end of Daniel Paulista's tenure on 24 June 2026.
- The club has had over two months under new management.
- No current squad or press-conference update was found for this match.
The only recorded H2H was on 26 April 2026, a 1-0 home win for São Bernardo.
- São Bernardo kept a clean sheet in that match.
- One match is not enough to establish a trend.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Goias

1.75fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

The market implies a 57% chance for Goias, but our model estimates only 38%, suggesting the home side is overpriced despite a slight home edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Goias or Draw

1.18fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 84.8%

0.0ppshort

The market prices Goias or Draw at 85% implied probability, but our model estimates only 68%, indicating poor value on this double chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.29fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average just over one first-half goal combined, and Sao Bernardo rarely leads at halftime, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Goias has a slight home edge and Sao Bernardo's away form is inconsistent, but the overall records are close, so a home win is only moderately likely.
- Goias home record: 6W 1D 4L in 11 home matches this season
- Sao Bernardo away record: 6W 2D 3L in 11 away matches
- Goias last 5 home matches: 2W 1D 2L
- Sao Bernardo last 5 away matches: 2W 1D 2L
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGoiasEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have solid unbeaten records in their respective home/away splits, making a Goias win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Goias home record: 6W 1D 4L (64% unbeaten at home)
- Sao Bernardo away record: 6W 2D 3L (73% unbeaten away)
- Goias last 5 home matches: 2W 1D 2L
- Sao Bernardo last 5 away matches: 2W 1D 2L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGoias or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sao Bernardo draws the first half in two-thirds of their matches, and Goias also has a significant draw rate, making a first-half draw likely.
- Goias first half results: 47% leading, 27% trailing, 26% drawing
- Sao Bernardo first half results: 20% leading, 13% trailing, 67% drawing
- Goias last 5 first half results: 2W 1D 2L
- Sao Bernardo last 5 first half results: 1W 3D 1L
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate draw rates, but the combination of a first-half draw and full-time draw is less common, hence low confidence.
- Goias full-time draws: 6 in 24 matches (25%)
- Sao Bernardo full-time draws: 8 in 24 matches (33%)
- Goias first half draws: 26%
- Sao Bernardo first half draws: 67%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Goias's low-scoring home games and both teams' moderate attacking output suggest a low-scoring match, with under 2.5 goals likely.
- Goias average goals per match: 0.9 for, 1.1 against (total 2.0)
- Sao Bernardo average goals per match: 1.2 for, 1.3 against (total 2.5)
- Goias home matches average total goals: 2.0
- Sao Bernardo away matches average total goals: 2.8
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding in their respective home/away splits, making both teams scoring a reasonable possibility.
- Goias scored in 8 of 11 home matches (73%)
- Sao Bernardo scored in 9 of 11 away matches (82%)
- Goias conceded in 7 of 11 home matches (64%)
- Sao Bernardo conceded in 8 of 11 away matches (73%)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average just over one first-half goal combined, and Sao Bernardo rarely leads at halftime, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Goias average first half goals: 0.6 for, 0.5 against (total 1.1)
- Sao Bernardo average first half goals: 0.6 for, 0.5 against (total 1.1)
- Goias first half leading at half time: 47%
- Sao Bernardo first half leading at half time: 20%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring tends to be higher for both teams, but the overall averages are still below 1.5, so this is a low-confidence lean.
- Goias average second half goals: 0.3 for, 0.6 against (total 0.9)
- Sao Bernardo average second half goals: 0.6 for, 0.8 against (total 1.4)
- Goias second half goals in last 5 matches: 0.4 per match
- Sao Bernardo second half goals in last 5 matches: 0.8 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 10 total corners per match, so over 9.5 corners is a near coin-flip with slight lean to over.
- Goias average corners per match: 4.6 for, 5.6 against (total 10.2)
- Sao Bernardo average corners per match: 5.2 for, 5.5 against (total 10.7)
- Goias home matches average total corners: 9.8
- Sao Bernardo away matches average total corners: 10.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages are just around 8.5, making this a close call with a slight lean to under.
- Goias average shots on target: 4.1 for, 4.5 against (total 8.6)
- Sao Bernardo average shots on target: 4.7 for, 4.3 against (total 9.0)
- Goias home matches average total shots on target: 8.4
- Sao Bernardo away matches average total shots on target: 9.2
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average yellow cards is around 4.2, but with variance, over 4.5 cards is a coin-flip.
- Goias average yellow cards: 1.9 per match
- Sao Bernardo average yellow cards: 2.3 per match
- Goias average opponent yellow cards: 2.1
- Sao Bernardo average opponent yellow cards: 1.9
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 57% leaves no cushion vs our 38% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Goias has not fulfilled Over 4.5 cards in recent matches

Goias has fulfilled 0 of 5 Over 4.5 cards predictions. The average estimated probability was 61%, but none of the matches reached 5 cards. The current prediction of 50% is below the historical range of 55-65%.

Recent evidence for Goias5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Serie B