Heart of MidlothianvsHibernian

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.88

The read

Hearts have the stronger recent record, derby edge and a large Hampden support, so they are the more likely winner.

• Hearts are unbeaten in 8 home matches this season (4W 4D).
• Hearts have won 4 of the last 5 Edinburgh derbies.
• Hibernian have no win in their last 6 league matches (2D 4L).

BetBugs · Match WinnerHeart of MidlothianMarket price1.88Estimated chance47%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70

The read

Hearts' scoring volume and the derby's recent goal pattern make over 2.5 the more likely side of the line.

• Hearts matches average 3.67 goals; their home matches average 3.88.
• The last five derbies produced 4, 3, 1, 5 and 1 goals.
• Hearts scored 5 and 2 in recent home league matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67

The read

Hearts' home games are usually open and Hibernian have enough scoring away from home to contribute.

• Both teams scored in 11 of Hearts' 15 matches and 7 of their 8 home matches.
• Hibernian have scored in 11 of 15 overall and 5 of 8 away.
• The last five derbies produced both teams scoring in three.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35

The read

Hibernian's low scoring output and recent derby record point to them being held to one goal or fewer.

• Hibernian average 1.07 goals per match overall and 1.13 away.
• Hibernian scored 0 or 1 in four of the last five derbies.
• Hibernian have scored more than once in only one of their last five derbies.

BetBugs · Away Goals TotalHibernian under 1.5Market price1.35Estimated chance68%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48

The read

Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding rates are low, pointing to a cagey opening.

• Hearts' home first halves average 1.13 total goals (0.75 for, 0.38 against).
• Hibernian's away first halves average 1.13 total goals (0.75 for, 0.38 against).
• Overall first-half totals are 1.60 for Hearts and 1.40 for Hibernian.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' card counts and the derby semi-final setting make over 3.5 cards likely.

• Hearts' matches average 4.9 yellow cards (2.1 for them, 2.8 for opponents).
• Hibernian's matches average 4.1 yellow cards (1.9 for them, 2.2 for opponents).
• Hearts' last two matches produced 6 and 8 yellow cards; Hibernian's last two produced 7 and 5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' combined shot volumes sit just below the 30.5 line.

• Hearts matches average 27.5 total shots; their home matches average 28.0.
• Hibernian matches average 28.0 total shots.
• Hearts' last six total shots average 29.7; Hibernian's last six average 26.8.