Trabzonspor2Heart of Midlothian0

HT 1–0Thu 22 Oct 2026, 16:45 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 11–10On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Oct 2026, 04:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Trabzonspor's heavy home scoring meets a Hearts side that has found the net in five of six away games, with a Beşiktaş derby three days earlier complicating the hosts' week.

Trabzonspor are the likelier winners, and their fast starts make them the likelier side to be ahead at half-time. The quoted prices — 1.4 for the home win, 1.55 for over 2.5 goals and 1.88 for Trabzonspor to lead at the break — offer nothing at those odds.

Context

Reis replaced the previous coaching set-up in September 2026 and has won all three matches, with Trabzonspor scoring 11 goals after managing nine in seven games beforehand. The change has produced a more direct, higher-tempo attack, which shapes how Trabzonspor are likely to approach this home tie against Hearts. Three matches is a small sample and the upturn has not yet been tested against a side with Hearts' European pedigree, so the form is informative rather than decisive.
- Trabzonspor have won all three matches under Thomas Reis, scoring 11 goals since his September 2026 appointment.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Salah's goal and assist at KuPS on 15 October came on his Conference League debut and made him just the third player to score and assist across all three UEFA competitions. With 8 goals and 4 assists in 10 Trabzonspor appearances this season, he is the reference point of the attack Hearts must contain in Trabzon. The milestone itself does not change selection, and one Conference League match is a small sample, so it is best read as a form and availability anchor rather than a prediction.
- Salah scored and assisted in Trabzonspor's 4-2 Conference League win at KuPS on 15 October 2026.
- He became only the third player to both score and assist in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, after Mario Götze and Cody Gakpo.
- Mohamed Salah started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Onuachu's early exit at KuPS leaves Trabzonspor's first-choice centre-forward uncertain for the Hearts tie, with Franculino Djú having replaced him and scored twice. Reis's post-match comment gave no return date, so the striker's availability remains unresolved rather than ruled out. If Onuachu is fit he is the likely starter; if not, the attack shifts to the player who scored twice in his place.
- Onuachu opened the scoring in the 3rd minute and was substituted injured in the 10th minute of Trabzonspor's 4-2 win at KuPS on 15 October 2026.
- Coach Thomas Reis called it a very unlucky injury and said he hoped Onuachu would return quickly.
- P. Onuachu started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Franculino Djú started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when P. Onuachu did not start.
ReportedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Djú's two-goal cameo at KuPS gives Trabzonspor a ready alternative if Onuachu does not recover in time for the Hearts fixture. He scored his second in stoppage time with the game still live at 3-2, suggesting he can carry the central role rather than merely fill it. Turkish reports also flagged that his broader performance was imperfect, so his case rests on a single substitute appearance.
- Djú, Trabzonspor's most expensive signing, replaced Onuachu in the 10th minute and scored twice in the 4-2 win at KuPS on 15 October 2026.
- Local reports noted his two goals but also highlighted shortcomings in his overall display.
- Franculino Djú started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- P. Onuachu started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Franculino Djú did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Oct 2026, 03:58 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams score in the first half at a healthy rate, with Trabzonspor particularly prolific before the break at home.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Trabzonspor

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

−11.4ppshort

Trabzonspor score heavily at home and arrive in strong form, while Hearts have lost half their away matches and concede regularly on the road.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

−6.5ppshort

Both sides are involved in high-scoring games, with Trabzonspor's home attack meeting a Hearts defence that concedes twice per away match.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Trabzonspor

1.88fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 53.2%

−5.2ppshort

Trabzonspor start strongly at home, scoring nearly two first-half goals per match while conceding little before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Trabzonspor score heavily at home and arrive in strong form, while Hearts have lost half their away matches and concede regularly on the road.
- Trabzonspor home: 3W 0D 1L, 2.75 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per home match
- Trabzonspor have won all three matches under Thomas Reis, scoring 11 goals
- Hearts away: 2W 1D 3L, conceding 2.0 goals per away match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTrabzonsporEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.88
The read
Trabzonspor start strongly at home, scoring nearly two first-half goals per match while conceding little before the break.
- Trabzonspor home first-half goals scored: 1.75 per match
- Trabzonspor home first-half goals conceded: 0.5 per match
- Hearts away first-half goals scored: 1.0 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonTrabzonsporEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Trabzonspor have not conceded a second-half goal at home, while Hearts ship goals after the break on the road.
- Trabzonspor home second-half goals scored: 1.0 per match
- Trabzonspor home second-half goals conceded: 0 per match
- Hearts away second-half goals conceded: 1.17 per match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonTrabzonsporEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Trabzonspor score heavily at home and arrive in strong form, while Hearts have lost half their away matches and concede regularly on the road. Hearts have drawn four times this season and held a lead late against Nordsjaelland, showing they can stay level in tight European games.
- Trabzonspor home: 3W 0D 1L, 2.75 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per home match
- Trabzonspor have won all three matches under Thomas Reis, scoring 11 goals
- Trabzonspor overall: 1 draw in 10 competitive matches
- Hearts overall: 4 draws in 15 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTrabzonspor or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Trabzonspor start strongly at home, scoring nearly two first-half goals per match while conceding little before the break. Hearts often reach half-time level, and a cagey opening in European football makes a drawn first half plausible.
- Trabzonspor home first-half goals scored: 1.75 per match
- Trabzonspor home first-half goals conceded: 0.5 per match
- Hearts away first-half goals conceded: 0.83 per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTrabzonspor or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both sides are involved in high-scoring games, with Trabzonspor's home attack meeting a Hearts defence that concedes twice per away match.
- Trabzonspor home: 2.75 goals scored per match
- Hearts away: 2.0 goals conceded per match
- Trabzonspor won 4-2 at KuPS and 5-0 over Genclerbirligi recently
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts usually find a goal on their travels, but Trabzonspor keep clean sheets in half their home games, making this close to even.
- Hearts away both teams scored: 5 of 6 matches
- Trabzonspor home both teams scored: 1 of 4 matches
- Trabzonspor overall both teams scored: 4 of 10 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Trabzonspor regularly score two or more at home and face a Hearts defence that concedes twice per away outing.
- Trabzonspor home: 2.75 goals scored per match
- Trabzonspor have scored 11 goals in three matches under Thomas Reis
- Hearts away: 2.0 goals conceded per match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonTrabzonspor over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Trabzonspor's home defence has been hard to break down, keeping Hearts to a goal or none in most scenarios.
- Trabzonspor home goals conceded: 0.5 per match
- Trabzonspor home clean sheets: 2 of 4 matches
- Hearts away scoring: 1.67 per match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonHeart of Midlothian under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams score in the first half at a healthy rate, with Trabzonspor particularly prolific before the break at home.
- Trabzonspor home first-half goals scored: 1.75 per match
- Hearts away first-half goals scored: 1.0 per match
- Trabzonspor first-half goals conceded: 0.5 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts have found the net in most away games, making it more likely than not that Trabzonspor concede.
- Hearts away both teams scored: 5 of 6 matches
- Trabzonspor home clean sheets: 2 of 4 matches
- Hearts away scoring: 1.67 per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHeart of Midlothian to scoreEstimated chance62%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Trabzonspor's modest home corner counts pull the combined expectation below the line more often than not.
- Trabzonspor home corners plus opponent corners: about 8.25 per match
- Hearts overall corners plus opponent corners: about 10.5 per match
- Trabzonspor overall corners plus opponent corners: about 10.5 per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' low on-target output on the road keeps the combined count close to or below the line.
- Hearts overall shots on target plus opponent: about 8.8 per match
- Hearts away shots on target: 3.6 per match
- Trabzonspor home shots on target: 7 per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides accumulate bookings regularly, with combined yellow-card totals comfortably above the line.
- Trabzonspor home yellow cards plus opponent: about 5.25 per match
- Hearts overall yellow cards plus opponent: about 4.1 per match
- Both teams have recent red cards in their match logs
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.4 price requires 71.4%, above our 60.0% estimate.

League Table

UEFA Europa Conference League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Trabzonspor Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	1	1	0	0	4-2	3	W
19	Heart of Midlothian Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)	1	0	1	0	1-1	1	D