Heart of Midlothian5St. Mirren0

HT 2–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 18–8On targetOn target 6–1CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 10:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Hearts have won three from three at home in the league; St Mirren have lost their last three but won two of three away, conceding once.

Hearts at Tynecastle are the likelier winners and the goals markets lean high, but 1.43 for a home win, 1.45 for Over 2.5 and 1.62 for both teams to score all ask more than the season's record supports. The draw at 4.5 is the only quoted price with something in it.

Context

St Mirren are being led by a first-season head coach whose side has been credited with a more progressive, front-foot approach than the team played previously. That is the clearest guide to how they will set up at Tynecastle, where the key decision is how aggressively to press a Hearts side also adapting to a new system. The counterweight is recent form: a strong opening has given way to three straight league defeats, so the new style has not yet produced a settled return.
- Craig McLeish is St Mirren's head coach and was named Scottish Premiership manager of the month for August.
- St Mirren have adopted a more positive, progressive style under McLeish than they played under predecessor Stephen Robinson.
- St Mirren have won plaudits and points with the new approach.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 10:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Vrancken has reached 100 days at Tynecastle, using 28 players and eight different centre-back partnerships across 15 competitive games while managing a string of injuries. That turnover in the back line is the most relevant pointer for this fixture, because Hearts' defensive combinations have been changing rather than settling. The limitation is situational: an unusually heavy schedule has forced much of the rotation, so it only partly reflects a fixed selection plan.
- Wouter Vrancken has been Hearts head coach for 100 days, overseeing 15 competitive games.
- He has used 28 players and eight different centre-back partnerships while managing a number of injuries.
- Vrancken followed advice from Vincent Kompany before taking the job and turned down a larger offer elsewhere.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 10:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Hearts could have two players back from injury for the visit of St Mirren, easing a squad that has been stretched through the opening weeks of the season. Extra options matter more than usual because the fixture starts a nine-match run across 29 days, when rotation becomes unavoidable. The returns are not yet settled, so which players are involved and how much they feature remains open.
- Two Hearts players could return from injury in time for the St Mirren fixture.
- Vrancken provided injury updates on four players ahead of a run of nine games in 29 days.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 10:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Hearts open a run of nine games in 29 days with the visit of St Mirren, followed by a Conference League home tie against FC Nordsjælland on 15 October. The sequence shapes how Vrancken manages minutes and raises the likelihood of changes in a league fixture sandwiched between European commitments. The counterpoint is that a deep squad has already been rotating heavily under Vrancken, so a changed lineup here would be normal rather than disruptive.
- Hearts face nine games in 29 days.
- Hearts host FC Nordsjælland in the Conference League at Tynecastle on Thursday 15 October.
- Hearts' Conference League opponents are preparing for a trip to Tynecastle later this month.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 10:38 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.20fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 83.3%

−11.3ppshort

Both teams' recent games have usually produced a goal before half-time.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

−9.0ppshort

Both sides are involved in high-scoring games and Hearts' home fixtures regularly pass three goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hearts score heavily at Tynecastle while St Mirren arrive on a three-game league losing run.
- Hearts have won all three home league games this season, scoring 8 and conceding 2
- Hearts' home record in the tracked window is 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss at 2.43 goals per game
- St Mirren have lost their last three league matches, scoring once across them
- Hearts won the two most recent Tynecastle meetings 2-0 and 3-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHeart of MidlothianEstimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring has been moderate in both teams' matches, keeping a level opening plausible.
- Hearts' matches average 1.36 first-half goals in total
- Hearts' home matches average 1.0 first-half goals in total
- St Mirren's matches average 1.5 first-half goals in total
- Only 2 of the last 12 combined halves involving these teams ended level
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hearts have been stronger after the break at home and St Mirren have faded late in recent games.
- Hearts' home matches average 1.71 second-half goals for and 1.0 against
- Hearts scored twice after half-time in their 2-1 home wins over Dundee and St Johnstone
- St Mirren concede 0.71 second-half goals per away match
- St Mirren have conceded five second-half goals in their last three league games
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonHeart of MidlothianEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts score heavily at Tynecastle while St Mirren arrive on a three-game league losing run. St Mirren's compact away play and Hearts' habit of drawing at home leave a level result in range.
- Hearts have won all three home league games this season, scoring 8 and conceding 2
- Hearts' home record in the tracked window is 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss at 2.43 goals per game
- St Mirren's three away league games this season produced 3 goals for and 1 against
- Hearts drew 2 of their 7 home matches in the tracked window
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHeart of Midlothian or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts start games brightly at home and have taken first-half leads in half of their recent matches. First-half scoring has been moderate in both teams' matches, keeping a level opening plausible.
- Hearts led at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Hearts' home matches average 0.71 first-half goals for and 0.29 against
- Hearts' matches average 1.36 first-half goals in total
- Hearts' home matches average 1.0 first-half goals in total
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHeart of Midlothian or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both sides are involved in high-scoring games and Hearts' home fixtures regularly pass three goals.
- Hearts' 14 competitive matches average 3.71 goals in total
- Five of Hearts' last six matches produced three goals or more
- Hearts' home matches average 3.7 goals in total
- St Mirren's away matches average 2.86 goals in total
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Hearts score at home almost every week and St Mirren have been finding the net on their travels.
- Hearts both scored and conceded in 10 of their 14 competitive matches
- Hearts scored in 12 of 14 matches and in 6 of 7 at home
- St Mirren scored in 6 of their 7 away matches in the window
- St Mirren scored in 4 of their last 6 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts have been scoring at least twice regularly, especially at Tynecastle.
- Hearts average 2.43 goals in home matches
- Hearts scored 8 goals in three home league games this season
- Hearts scored in 6 of their 7 home matches in the window
- Hearts scored 2 or more in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonHeart of Midlothian over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts have conceded in nearly every match and St Mirren usually score away from home.
- Hearts conceded in 12 of 14 competitive matches
- Hearts conceded in 6 of 7 home matches
- St Mirren scored in 6 of 7 away matches in the window
- Hearts have been beaten by passes played in behind their defence this season
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSt. Mirren to scoreEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts score consistently at home and St Mirren have been conceding in most recent games.
- Hearts scored in 6 of their 7 home matches
- Hearts scored in 12 of 14 competitive matches
- Hearts scored 8 goals in three home league games
- St Mirren conceded in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHeart of Midlothian to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both teams' recent games have usually produced a goal before half-time.
- Hearts' matches average 1.36 first-half goals in total
- St Mirren's matches average 1.5 first-half goals in total
- Five of Hearts' last six matches had a first-half goal
- Only one of St Mirren's last six matches was goalless at the break
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Mirren contribute very few corners away, which keeps the combined total modest.
- St Mirren average 3.33 corners in away matches
- St Mirren's away matches have produced few corners on their own side
- Hearts' home matches average 11.2 corners in total
- St Mirren's last away league match produced 12 corners in total
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's away or home shot splits point to a very high combined total.
- Hearts' home matches average 17.4 shots for and 9.8 against
- St Mirren's away matches average 11.67 shots for and 12.33 against
- St Mirren's away sample is only three matches for shots
- Hearts' matches average 27.7 shots in total
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 30.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both sides have tended to produce around or above this number of accurate shots.
- Hearts' home matches average 5.8 shots on target for and 4.0 against
- St Mirren's away matches average 2.67 shots on target for and 3.33 against
- Hearts' overall matches average 9.27 shots on target in total
- St Mirren's recent matches produced 9 and 11 shots on target in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up regular bookings and red cards have appeared in their recent records.
- Hearts average 1.7 yellow cards and their opponents 2.4
- St Mirren average 2.2 yellow cards and their opponents 1.7
- Hearts have received red cards in 4 matches and St Mirren in 3
- St Mirren's last four league matches produced at least four cards in total
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L1-0ST MirrenvHeart Of MidlothianFeb 3, 2026PRE

L2-0Heart Of MidlothianvST MirrenJan 14, 2026PRE

D2-2ST MirrenvHeart Of MidlothianOct 29, 2025PRE

D1-1ST MirrenvHeart Of MidlothianAug 16, 2025LEA

L3-1Heart Of MidlothianvST MirrenFeb 26, 2025PRE

St. Mirren unbeaten in 5 meetingsSt. Mirren: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Premiership 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Heart of Midlothian Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)	7	4	1	2	14-8	13	DLWWW
5	St. Mirren Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)	7	3	1	3	8-9	10	LLLWD