Kilmarnock1Heart of Midlothian1

HT 1–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 16:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 33%–67%ShotsShots 4–17On targetOn target 0–3CornersCorners 2–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 17:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Hearts are the likely winners, but the odds offer no value.

The standout betting edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.15, with our model estimating a 55% probability versus the market's 46.5%.

Context

Kilmarnock are bottom of the Premiership with 4 points from 6 games.
Their home record is especially poor: 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, with 1 goal scored and 10 conceded. This includes a 0-4 loss to Dundee Utd on 2026-08-29 and a 1-5 loss to Celtic on 2026-08-09. Hearts have won 3 of their last 4 league games, so Kilmarnock's home struggles could be exposed again.
- Kilmarnock home record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, 1 goal scored, 10 conceded.
- Lost 0-4 to Dundee Utd at home on 2026-08-29.
- Lost 1-5 to Celtic at home on 2026-08-09.
Hearts head coach Wouter Vrancken has confirmed that midfielders Tom Renaud and Blair Spittal will miss several months, leaving the squad thin in central midfield.
The absences remove two established central-midfield options and reduce Hearts' ability to rotate or adjust that unit during the match. Vrancken has indicated he may need to use players from other roles in midfield, which could alter the team's shape and pressing structure. Kilmarnock may find more space in central areas if Hearts field an improvised midfield pairing.
- Vrancken confirmed Tom Renaud and Blair Spittal are set to miss several months.
- He said Hearts are thin in midfield and may need to use players from other roles there.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 17:43 · Europe/BucharestSTV News: Vrancken vows to solve Hearts' midfield headachenews.stv.tv · 7 Sep 2026
Hearts are third in the Premiership with 12 points from 6 games.
Their recent league form is LWWWW, with wins over Dundee, Hibernian, ST Johnstone, and Dundee Utd. They have scored 13 goals and conceded 7 in the league this season. This strong run makes them clear favourites against a struggling Kilmarnock side.
- Hearts form: LWWWW in last five league matches.
- Won 3-1 away at Hibernian on 2026-09-03.
- Won 2-1 at home to Dundee on 2026-09-06.
The last five meetings between these teams have produced three Hearts wins, one Kilmarnock win, and one draw.
Hearts won 3-0 at Kilmarnock on 2025-10-18 and 1-0 at Kilmarnock on 2025-05-18. Kilmarnock's only win in this period was 1-0 at home on 2026-03-14. This recent head-to-head record suggests Hearts have had the upper hand, especially away from home.
- Hearts won 3-0 at Kilmarnock on 2025-10-18.
- Hearts won 1-0 at Kilmarnock on 2025-05-18.
- Kilmarnock won 1-0 at home on 2026-03-14.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Heart of Midlothian

1.60fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Hearts' superior league form and Kilmarnock's dreadful home record make the away side the likelier winner.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Heart of Midlothian

1.20fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Kilmarnock have not won at home this season, making the double chance for Hearts or draw highly likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' superior league form and Kilmarnock's dreadful home record make the away side the likelier winner.
- Hearts league form last 5: W-W-W-W-L (12 pts from 6, rank 3)
- Kilmarnock home record this season: 0W-0D-3L, 1 goal scored, 10 conceded
- H2H last 5: Hearts won 3, Kilmarnock won 1, draw 1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHeart of MidlothianEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock have not won at home this season, making the double chance for Hearts or draw highly likely.
- Kilmarnock home record: 0W-0D-3L, 1 goal scored, 10 conceded
- Hearts away record: 1W-0D-2L, 5 goals scored, 5 conceded
- H2H last 5: Hearts unbeaten in 4 of 5
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Heart of MidlothianEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hearts have a slight first-half edge in scoring and leading frequency, making them the marginal favorite to lead at the break.
- Hearts led at halftime in 47% of matches (average)
- Kilmarnock led at halftime in 40% of matches (average)
- Hearts first-half goal difference: +0.4 per game; Kilmarnock: 0.0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostHeart of MidlothianEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hearts' ability to start strong and Kilmarnock's poor home form make a Hearts HT/FT double a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Hearts have won 4 of 6 league games, often leading at halftime
- Kilmarnock have lost all 3 home games, trailing at halftime in 2
- H2H: Hearts won 3 of last 5, including 3-0 away win
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostHeart of Midlothian/Heart of MidlothianEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have trended high-scoring, especially Kilmarnock's leaky home defense, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Kilmarnock home matches average 3.67 total goals (1 scored, 10 conceded in 3 games)
- Hearts away matches average 3.33 total goals (5 scored, 5 conceded in 3 games)
- Hearts overall average 3.33 goals per game (13 scored, 7 conceded in 6)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' consistent scoring and Kilmarnock's occasional home threat make both teams scoring plausible.
- Hearts have scored in 5 of 6 league games (13 goals total)
- Kilmarnock have scored in 4 of 6 league games (5 goals total)
- Kilmarnock home games: scored in 1 of 3, but Hearts away conceded in all 3
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half scoring rates, but the combined average slightly favors over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Hearts average 0.9 first-half goals scored, 0.5 conceded
- Kilmarnock average 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.7 conceded
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.6
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been more productive for both teams, and Kilmarnock's defensive frailty late in games supports over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Hearts average 1.0 second-half goals scored (total 1.9 - 0.9 first half)
- Kilmarnock average 1.3 second-half goals scored (total 2.0 - 0.7 first half)
- Kilmarnock home games have seen 10 goals conceded, many in second halves
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, with Hearts particularly prolific, suggesting over 9.5 corners is likely.
- Kilmarnock average 4.8 corners per game, concede 5.9 (opponent corners)
- Hearts average 7.3 corners per game, concede 4.3
- Combined average corners: 12.1 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a solid number of shots on target, making over 8.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Kilmarnock average 4.9 shots on target per game, concede 5.1
- Hearts average 5.0 shots on target per game, concede 4.3
- Combined average shots on target: 10.0 per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary records of both teams suggest a moderate card count, with Kilmarnock's red card tendency pushing the total over 3.5.
- Kilmarnock average 1.8 yellow cards per game, Hearts 1.7
- Kilmarnock average 0.7 red cards per game, Hearts 0.2
- Combined average cards: 3.5 yellow + 0.9 red
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%