Hibernian1Heart of Midlothian3

HT 0–2Thu 3 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–464%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 17–12On targetOn target 4–5CornersCorners 7–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 11:41 · Europe/Bucharest

The only market with a positive edge is Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 (model 58% vs implied 56.2%).

Avoid BTTS Yes, Over 0.5 first-half goals, and Hibernian or Draw, as their odds imply higher probabilities than the model estimates. Injury doubts over Cadden and Renaud add uncertainty, so check team news before betting.

Context

Hibernian sit 5th with 6 points after three Premiership matches, while Hearts are 3rd with the same points.
Hibernian's only home league game ended in a 1-2 loss to Motherwell on 2 August, and they have not won at home in the league this season. Hearts have won both home matches but lost their only away game 1-2 at Aberdeen on 1 August. This derby is at Hibernian's ground, so their home struggles could matter, though the sample is very small.
- Hibernian lost 1-2 at home to Motherwell on 2 August 2026.
- Hearts lost 1-2 away to Aberdeen on 1 August 2026.
Hibernian midfielder N. Cadden missed the 30 August win at Dundee after a warm-up issue, with J. Mulligan starting in his place in each of the five recent fixtures with available lineups.
Cadden's status remains a watch, so Hibernian's midfield and left-side selection is unresolved. If he is unavailable, Mulligan is the established replacement, but no probability adjustment is warranted until the club confirms his recovery.
- David Gray said N. Cadden developed an issue in the warm-up before the Dundee match.
- Cadden was unavailable for Hibernian's 30 August league win at Dundee.
- N. Cadden started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- J. Mulligan started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when N. Cadden did not start.
To watchSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 11:40 · Europe/BucharestHibernian FC: Gray Determined To Bounce Back Quicklywww.hibernianfc.co.uk · 29 Aug 2026PA Media: David Gray hails deserved Hibernian winca.sports.yahoo.com · 30 Aug 2026
The last five league meetings between these sides have produced four home wins and one away win.
Hearts won 2-1 at Hibernian on 26 April 2026, and also won 1-0 at home on 10 February 2026. Hibernian's last derby win was 3-2 at home on 27 December 2025. The recent pattern favours Hearts, but derbies can be unpredictable.
- Hearts won 2-1 at Hibernian on 26 April 2026.
- Hearts won 1-0 at home on 10 February 2026.
- Hibernian won 3-2 at home on 27 December 2025.
Heart of Midlothian midfielder T. Renaud was forced off early against Rapid Vienna and missed the 29 August win over St Johnstone, with an ankle scan pending.
Renaud's availability is unresolved, leaving Hearts' midfield selection uncertain. The scan outcome or squad news will determine whether he can feature, but no probability adjustment is warranted until then.
- Wouter Vrancken said T. Renaud would have an ankle scan and that the initial outlook did not look good.
- Hearts did not include Renaud in their squad for the 29 August win over St Johnstone.
- T. Renaud started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 11:40 · Europe/BucharestYahoo Sport: Vrancken on Hearts belief and Renaudmalaysia.news.yahoo.comHearts: Match Report, Hearts 2-1 St Johnstonewww.heartsfc.co.uk · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have scored in 4 of last 5 league matches, but the odds imply a higher probability than our model suggests.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average around 0.8-0.9 first-half goals, but the odds are heavily skewed toward Over 0.5, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have poor home/away splits and H2H strongly favours the home side, but Hibernian's home weakness makes a draw plausible.
- Hibernian home record this season: 0W 0D 1L.
- Hearts away record this season: 0W 0D 1L.
- Last 5 H2H: home team won 4, away team won 1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hibernian's home resilience and Hearts' away struggles make the double chance a solid option.
- Hibernian have lost only 1 of last 5 home matches across all competitions.
- Hearts have won only 1 of last 5 away matches across all competitions.
- Hibernian are unbeaten in 3 of last 5 H2H at home.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostHibernian or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half outcomes are often level, and both teams have similar first-half scoring rates.
- Hibernian led at half-time in 40% of recent matches, trailed in 33%.
- Hearts led at half-time in 47% of recent matches, trailed in 27%.
- Last 5 H2H first-half results: 2 draws, 2 home leads, 1 away lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A low-scoring first half followed by a level full-time result is a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Hibernian have drawn 2 of last 5 matches at half-time.
- Hearts have drawn 2 of last 5 matches at half-time.
- H2H shows 2 draws at half-time in last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show attacking intent and defensive vulnerability, with combined averages supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Hibernian average 1.5 goals for and 1.1 goals against over last 15 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian average 1.8 goals for and 1.8 goals against over last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 3, 1, 5, 1, 3 goals (avg 2.6).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records and H2H history shows frequent goals at both ends.
- Hibernian scored in 4 of last 5 league matches.
- Hearts scored in 4 of last 5 league matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, and H2H shows first-half goals are common.
- Hibernian average 0.8 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- Hearts average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- In last 5 H2H, first-half goals occurred in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams maintain scoring rates into the second half, making over 1.5 second-half goals a reasonable bet.
- Hibernian average 0.7 second-half goals for (total 1.5 - 0.8 first half).
- Hearts average 0.9 second-half goals for (total 1.8 - 0.9 first half).
- Combined second-half scoring average is 1.6 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede a high number of corners, pushing the total above 9.5.
- Hibernian average 4.7 corners for and concede 5.3 corners per match.
- Hearts average 6.4 corners for and concede 4.9 corners per match.
- Combined average corners per match: 10.0.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce and allow a moderate number of shots on target, making over 8.5 slightly likely.
- Hibernian average 3.8 shots on target for and 4.2 against.
- Hearts average 4.4 shots on target for and 4.9 against.
- Combined average shots on target per match: 8.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby matches often produce more cards, and both teams' averages support over 3.5 total cards.
- Hibernian average 2.3 yellow cards per match.
- Hearts average 1.8 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards per match: 4.1.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%