PremiershipFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Celtic7Heart of Midlothian1

HT 5–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions14–193%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 18–20On targetOn target 10–5CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 18:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Celtic top the table and host third-placed Hearts, with both clubs coming off European ties on Thursday.

Celtic are the likelier winners, but 1.55 asks for more than their home record supports. The only reviewed price with anything in its favour is the 2.4 on Under 2.5, a narrow call when the recent meetings all went over.

Context

Jota's last competitive action before this spell came in April 2025, when cruciate ligament damage began roughly 18 months out, so the substitute run at Fir Park and the 100th-appearance milestone are the only current form evidence available. A fit Jota gives Martin O'Neill another senior wide attacker during a run of four games in 13 days across the league and Europa League, which matters because Celtic's attacking options have been thinned by injuries. The specific limitation is sharpness: one substitute outing plus a behind-closed-doors friendly is a thin base for a first start, so a bench role against Hearts remains the likelier short-term use.
- Jota replaced Sebastien Tounekti in the 73rd minute at Fir Park on 11 October and the outing was his 100th for Celtic
- His previous competitive appearance came before cruciate ligament damage in April 2025, with a behind-closed-doors friendly his only other football since
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:37 · Europe/Bucharest
Carter-Vickers was left out of the starting line-up at Motherwell on 11 October and did not train with the squad on the eve of the Benfica trip, so the centre-back is not yet back to full availability. His absence pushes Dane Murray alongside Liam Scales, the pairing that kept a clean sheet in a 2-0 win but has little shared experience. That matters against a Hearts side that scored five at home to St Mirren on 10 October. The uncertainty cuts both ways: if Carter-Vickers travels and comes through the Europa League tie, the doubt can disappear before Sunday.
- Carter-Vickers was absent from Celtic's starting line-up at Motherwell on 11 October, with Dane Murray partnering Liam Scales in central defence
- He did not take part in Celtic training on 14 October ahead of the Europa League tie at Benfica
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:37 · Europe/Bucharest
Celtic's flight to Lisbon for the Europa League tie at Benfica and Hearts' home Conference League opener against Nordsjælland both fall on Thursday 15 October, three days before Sunday's 14:00 kick-off. That is a short turnaround by normal Premiership standards and comes with travel for Celtic and a second high-intensity night for Hearts. Both managers must weigh freshness against continuity, and neither club had named its league side before the weekend. The equal nature of the congestion is the key limitation: it does not obviously favour either team.
- Celtic travel to Lisbon for a Europa League tie at Benfica on 15 October
- Hearts' Conference League opener against Nordsjælland is at Tynecastle on 15 October, with a full house at the ground
- The Premiership fixture between the sides is at Celtic Park on Sunday 18 October
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:37 · Europe/Bucharest
O'Neill is managing Celtic through a turbulent spell in which three consecutive defeats, two of them to Rangers, led him to take time to reflect over the international break before continuing. The 2-0 win at Motherwell on 11 October returned the side to the top of the Premiership, but the club's AGM and supporter unrest keep his position in the news. His immediate task is managing a squad through a Thursday trip to Lisbon and a Sunday lunchtime kick-off; the fixture's outcome will shape how the pressure is framed afterwards, though the team has already answered one test.
- O'Neill took time to reflect during the international break before committing to continue as Celtic manager
- Celtic won 2-0 at Motherwell on 11 October after three consecutive defeats, including two to Rangers, to return to the top of the Premiership
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:37 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Celtic or Draw

1.18fair 1.23

BetBugs 81% · Market 84.7%

−3.7ppshort

Celtic's home form and tight defence give them the stronger route to the points. Hearts can hold their own in this fixture, as shown by January's 2-2 draw.

Both Teams Score First HalflostUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

−5.0ppshort

Tight first halves on both sides make it likely at least one team is kept out before the break.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.18fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 84.7%

−11.7ppshort

Both sides have a first-half scoring record, making at least one goal before the break likely.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Celtic

1.55fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 64.5%

−7.5ppshort

Celtic's home form and tight defence give them the stronger route to the points.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 62.5%

−9.5ppshort

Hearts find the net regularly away and Celtic rarely shut opponents out completely.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Celtic

1.95fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 51.3%

−9.3ppshort

Celtic score before the break often and concede little in the first half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Celtic's home form and tight defence give them the stronger route to the points.
- Celtic lead the Premiership with 7 wins from 8, including 3 of 4 at home, scoring 16 and conceding 4.
- Celtic's 12-match competitive sample has 9 wins, 6 clean sheets and 0.83 goals conceded per game.
- Hearts have won just 1 of 4 league away games, scoring 6 and conceding 6 on the road.
- Both clubs played European ties on Thursday, so each has a three-day turnaround.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCelticEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
Celtic score before the break often and concede little in the first half.
- Celtic average 1.17 first-half goals and 0.42 conceded per competitive match.
- At home Celtic average 1.33 first-half goals and 0.5 conceded.
- Hearts average 0.93 first-half goals and 0.5 conceded overall.
- Hearts away average 1.0 first-half goals and 0.83 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonCelticEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hearts give up second-half goals on the road while Celtic stay solid after the break.
- Celtic average 0.83 second-half goals scored and 0.42 conceded.
- Celtic at home average 0.33 second-half goals and 0.33 conceded.
- Hearts away average 0.67 second-half goals and 1.17 conceded.
- Hearts concede 1.0 second-half goal per match overall.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonCelticEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Celtic's home form and tight defence give them the stronger route to the points. Hearts can hold their own in this fixture, as shown by January's 2-2 draw.
- Celtic lead the Premiership with 7 wins from 8, including 3 of 4 at home, scoring 16 and conceding 4.
- Celtic's 12-match competitive sample has 9 wins, 6 clean sheets and 0.83 goals conceded per game.
- The last two meetings produced a 2-2 draw at Tynecastle and a 3-1 Celtic win at Celtic Park.
- Hearts have drawn 1 of 4 league away games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCeltic or DrawEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic score before the break often and concede little in the first half. Both teams keep first halves fairly tight, so the interval can easily finish level.
- Celtic average 1.17 first-half goals and 0.42 conceded per competitive match.
- At home Celtic average 1.33 first-half goals and 0.5 conceded.
- Celtic's matches average 1.58 combined first-half goals.
- Hearts' matches average 1.43 combined first-half goals.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCeltic or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' away games and the head-to-head record point to an open contest.
- Celtic's 12 competitive matches average 2.83 total goals; Hearts' 14 average 3.79.
- All five recent head-to-head meetings produced three or more goals.
- Hearts' away matches average 3.67 goals (1.67 scored, 2.0 conceded).
- Celtic's last six matches produced 8 goals in total.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Hearts find the net regularly away and Celtic rarely shut opponents out completely.
- Hearts scored in all six away matches tracked and both teams scored in 5 of 6.
- Hearts scored in 13 of their 14 competitive matches.
- Celtic kept 6 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches.
- The last four head-to-head meetings all had both teams scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic score consistently and Hearts concede at a fair rate on the road.
- Celtic average 2.0 goals per competitive match and scored in 10 of 12.
- Celtic's home league record shows 6 goals in 4 games.
- Hearts have conceded 6 goals in 4 league away games.
- Celtic's home six-match sample averages 1.67 goals per game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCeltic over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' regular scoring away makes it more likely Celtic are breached.
- Hearts scored in all 6 away matches tracked and in 13 of 14 overall.
- Hearts average 1.67 goals per away match.
- Celtic conceded in 6 of 12 competitive matches.
- Celtic's home matches produced 2 goals against in 4 league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHeart of Midlothian to scoreEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Celtic's regular scoring and Hearts' away concession rate point to at least one home goal.
- Celtic scored in 10 of 12 competitive matches and average 2.0 goals.
- Celtic have scored in each of their last four league matches.
- Hearts kept only 1 clean sheet in 6 away matches.
- Hearts concede 2.0 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCeltic to scoreEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hearts' away scoring makes a clean-sheet Celtic win the less likely path.
- Hearts scored in all 6 away matches tracked and in 13 of 14 overall.
- Celtic have 3 home wins from 4 league games.
- Celtic conceded in 6 of 12 competitive matches.
- Celtic's home matches saw 2 goals against in 4 league games.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both sides have a first-half scoring record, making at least one goal before the break likely.
- Celtic's matches average 1.58 combined first-half goals.
- Hearts' matches average 1.43 combined first-half goals.
- Celtic average 1.17 first-half goals scored per match.
- Hearts scored twice before half-time in their most recent league game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Tight first halves on both sides make it likely at least one team is kept out before the break.
- Celtic concede only 0.42 first-half goals per match.
- Celtic's home first-half concession average is 0.5.
- Hearts' away first-half concession average is 0.83.
- Celtic were held to a goalless first half in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance75%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's matches routinely reach fifteen corners.
- Celtic's matches average 12.6 total corners (8.8 for, 3.8 against).
- Hearts' matches average 10.25 total corners (6.1 for, 4.2 against).
- Hearts' away matches average 9.6 total corners.
- Celtic's home matches average 13.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 14.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches regularly produce three or more cards.
- Celtic's matches average 3.18 total yellow cards.
- Hearts' matches average 3.9 total yellow cards.
- Hearts receive 1.55 yellows per match, their opponents 2.36.
- Celtic's opponents receive 2.0 yellows per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance68%