Hibernian0Kilmarnock1

HT 0–1Tue 15 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–8–127%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 23–12On targetOn target 7–7CornersCorners 15–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 06:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Hibernian are overpriced at 1.48 given their poor home form and Kilmarnock's extra-time fatigue, but the market's high expectations for goals also leave little value.

The best angle is to avoid short-priced favourites and look for closer-to-fair markets like both teams to score.

Context

Kilmarnock are 12th in the Premiership with 1 point from 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 14.
Their recent league form is DLLLL, including a 0-1 home loss to St Mirren on 2 September and a 0-4 home loss to Dundee United on 29 August. This poor run means they are under pressure to get a result, but their away record is slightly better with a draw and a loss from two games.
- Kilmarnock have 1 point from 5 league games, with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses.
- They have scored 4 goals and conceded 14, a -10 goal difference.
- Their last two league matches were a 0-1 home loss to St Mirren on 2 September and a 0-4 home loss to Dundee United on 29 August.
Hibernian are 8th with 6 points from 5 games, but their home record is 0 wins and 2 losses.
They lost 1-3 to Hearts on 3 September and 1-2 to Motherwell on 2 August at home. This home weakness is a concern, but they did win their last away league game 2-1 at Dundee on 30 August, showing they can still compete.
- Hibernian have lost both home league matches: 1-3 vs Hearts on 3 September and 1-2 vs Motherwell on 2 August.
- Their overall home record is 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, with 2 goals scored and 5 conceded.
- They won their most recent away league game 2-1 at Dundee on 30 August.
Both clubs played League Cup quarter-finals on 12 September, with Kilmarnock's home tie against Aberdeen going to extra time and penalties.
Kilmarnock's additional 30 minutes and shootout workload gives Hibernian a clearer recovery advantage for this 15 September league match. The short turnaround may force Kilmarnock to rotate or manage intensity, while Hibernian's 3-0 win in Dingwall was completed in normal time.
- Hibernian beat Ross County 3-0 in Dingwall on 12 September to reach the League Cup semi-finals.
- Kilmarnock drew 1-1 with Aberdeen after extra time on 12 September and lost the penalty shootout 3-1.
- The Hibernian v Kilmarnock Premiership fixture is scheduled for 15 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 06:37 · Europe/BucharestThe Irish Newsus.irishnews.com · 12 Sep 2026Kilmarnock FCkilmarnockfc.co.uk · 13 Sep 2026Scottish Professional Football Leaguespfl.co.uk · 13 Sep 2026
The last five head-to-head meetings have been split: Hibernian won two, Kilmarnock won one, and two were draws.
On 4 April 2026, Hibernian won 3-0 at home against Kilmarnock. However, on 3 January 2026, Kilmarnock won 3-1 at home. This shows both teams can beat each other, but Hibernian's recent home win may give them confidence.
- Hibernian won 3-0 at home vs Kilmarnock on 4 April 2026.
- Kilmarnock won 3-1 at home vs Hibernian on 3 January 2026.
- The other three meetings in the last five were draws or a Hibernian win.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Hibernian

1.47fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 68%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours Hibernian but our model sees only a 45% chance, making the odds unattractive.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hibernian or Draw

1.14fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 88%

−18.0ppshort

The double chance price is very short and offers no value relative to our 70% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent scoring and H2H trends support goals, but the odds already price Over 2.5 as highly likely, leaving no value.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both attacks have scored regularly, but the odds are close to fair and offer no meaningful cushion.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hibernian's superior recent H2H and Kilmarnock's poor league form give them the edge, but Hibernian's own home struggles temper confidence.
- Hibernian home record this season: 0W 0D 2L, goals 2:5
- Kilmarnock away record this season: 0W 1D 1L, goals 3:4
- H2H last 5: Hibernian 2W, Kilmarnock 1W, 2D; Hibernian won last meeting 3-0 at home
- Kilmarnock league form DLLLL, 1 point from 5 games
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHibernianEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's poor form and Hibernian's H2H resilience make a home win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Hibernian unbeaten in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Kilmarnock have lost 4 of 5 league games this season
- Hibernian home record 0W 0D 2L, but against stronger opposition
BetBugs · Double ChancelostHibernian or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first half profiles, making a level score at the break a reasonable outcome.
- Hibernian leading at half time in 40% of recent matches, trailing 40%
- Kilmarnock leading at half time in 33%, trailing 27%
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hibernian's second half scoring and Kilmarnock's late defensive lapses suggest a possible home second half win.
- Hibernian have scored more second half goals in recent matches
- Kilmarnock's defense tends to weaken late (concede 0.6 second half goals per game)
- Hibernian's home advantage may grow as game progresses
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerpushHibernianEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Hibernian win is a plausible but low-probability HT/FT combination.
- Hibernian often draw at half time (40% of recent matches)
- Hibernian have won 2 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Kilmarnock's poor second half record
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/HibernianEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, and H2H trends support goals.
- Hibernian average 1.5 goals for, 1.3 against in last 15
- Kilmarnock average 1.9 goals for, 1.4 against in last 15
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
- Kilmarnock league games average 3.6 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks have been finding the net, and recent H2H meetings often see both teams score.
- Hibernian scored in 4 of last 5 league games
- Kilmarnock scored in 3 of last 5 league games
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, and H2H supports early action.
- Hibernian first half goals average 0.8, conceded 0.7
- Kilmarnock first half goals average 0.7, conceded 0.8
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 had a first half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is plausible given both teams' patterns, but confidence is low due to limited direct data.
- Hibernian second half goals average 0.7 (1.5 total - 0.8 first half)
- Kilmarnock second half goals average 1.2 (1.9 total - 0.7 first half)
- Kilmarnock concede more in second half (1.4 total - 0.8 first half = 0.6)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Hibernian average 5.1 corners per game
- Kilmarnock average 4.6 corners per game
- Combined average 9.7 corners per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is exactly at the line, making over 8.5 slightly less likely.
- Hibernian average 4 shots on target per game
- Kilmarnock average 4.5 shots on target per game
- Combined average 8.5 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average nearly 2 yellows each, suggesting a total around 4 cards is likely.
- Hibernian average 1.9 yellow cards per game
- Kilmarnock average 1.9 yellow cards per game
- Combined average 3.8 yellow cards per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%