Hibernian1Aberdeen1

HT 0–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 12–9On targetOn target 2–2CornersCorners 6–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 17:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Aberdeen to win or draw: the away win at 4.20 and double chance at 2.10 offer significant value given Hibernian's dreadful home record and Aberdeen's head-to-head dominance.

Avoid goals markets, as the odds overestimate scoring probability.

Context

Hibernian are 9th in the Premiership with 6 points from 6 games. Their home record is 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses.
Hibernian have lost all three home league matches this season, conceding 6 goals and scoring only 2. They lost to Kilmarnock 0-1 on 15 September, Hearts 1-3 on 3 September, and Motherwell 1-2 on 2 August. Aberdeen have also struggled away, winning only 1 of 3 away games, but Hibernian's home form is a clear weakness.
- Hibernian home record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, 2 goals for, 6 goals against.
- Lost to Kilmarnock 0-1 on 15 September 2026.
- Lost to Hearts 1-3 on 3 September 2026.
- Lost to Motherwell 1-2 on 2 August 2026.
Aberdeen are 8th in the Premiership with 7 points from 6 games. Their away record is 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses.
Aberdeen have lost three of their last four league matches: 0-3 at Celtic on 2 September, 0-1 at home to Rangers on 30 August, and 0-2 at Dundee on 8 August. They did win 4-0 at Motherwell on 15 September, which shows they can perform away, but their overall form is inconsistent.
- Aberdeen last four league results: W, L, L, L.
- Lost to Celtic 0-3 on 2 September 2026.
- Lost to Rangers 0-1 on 30 August 2026.
- Lost to Dundee 0-2 on 8 August 2026.
Hibernian defender R. Bushiri has not started any of the last five available lineups, with J. Kerr starting in his position each time.
Bushiri is not expected back until the New Year, so Hibernian will again be without that defensive option against Aberdeen. Kerr has been the regular replacement in that role, and the continued absence narrows the selection pool for this match.
- On 14 September, David Gray said he hoped Bushiri would return by the New Year.
- Hibernian's official account had previously reported that Bushiri was continuing his recovery with club medical staff.
- R. Bushiri started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- J. Kerr started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when R. Bushiri did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 16:58 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport Scotland: Gray on Edinburgh derby semi-final, Hanley return & Kilmarnocksports.yahoo.com · 14 Sep 2026
The last five meetings between these teams have all been won by the home side.
Hibernian have won the last two home matches against Aberdeen: 2-0 on 30 December 2025 and 2-0 on 1 February 2025. Aberdeen won the most recent meeting 2-0 at home on 11 April 2026. This pattern suggests home advantage has been significant in this fixture.
- Hibernian 2-0 Aberdeen on 30 December 2025.
- Hibernian 2-0 Aberdeen on 1 February 2025.
- Aberdeen 2-0 Hibernian on 11 April 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher scoring, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aberdeen's superior H2H record and Hibernian's poor home form give the visitors the edge.
- Hibernian home record this season: 0W 0D 3L, 2 goals for, 6 against
- Aberdeen away record: 1W 0D 2L, 4 goals for, 5 against
- H2H last 5: Aberdeen won 4, Hibernian won 1; Aberdeen kept clean sheets in 4 of those
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAberdeenEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hibernian's home struggles and Aberdeen's H2H dominance make the away double chance strong.
- Hibernian have lost all 3 home league matches this season
- Aberdeen have avoided defeat in 2 of 3 away matches
- H2H: Aberdeen unbeaten in 4 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAberdeen or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half profiles, making a level score at the break plausible.
- Hibernian leading at half-time in 40% of matches, trailing in 40%
- Aberdeen leading at half-time in 43% of matches, trailing in 29%
- H2H first-half results not available
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aberdeen's strong H2H record and Hibernian's home fragility support a draw at half-time with Aberdeen winning.
- Aberdeen have won 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Hibernian have lost all 3 home league matches
- Aberdeen have come from behind to win once this season
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/AberdeenEstimated chance18%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Hibernian home matches average 2.67 total goals (8 goals in 3 games)
- Aberdeen away matches average 3.0 total goals (9 goals in 3 games)
- Both teams have scored in 4 of Hibernian's last 6 league matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks have been productive recently, and Hibernian's home defence has been leaky.
- Hibernian have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches
- Aberdeen have scored in 4 of their last 6 league matches
- Hibernian have conceded in all 3 home league matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and Hibernian concede early at home.
- Hibernian first-half goals: 0.8 per game overall, 0.67 at home
- Aberdeen first-half goals: 0.7 per game overall, 0.67 away
- Hibernian first-half goals conceded: 0.6 per game overall, 1.0 at home
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals after the break.
- Hibernian average 0.6 second-half goals per game
- Aberdeen average 1.0 second-half goals per game
- Combined second-half average is 1.6 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede corners at a rate that supports a high total.
- Hibernian average 6.0 corners per game, concede 5.3
- Aberdeen average 5.7 corners per game, concede 6.0
- Combined average corners: 11.7 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target averages suggest a close call over 8.5.
- Hibernian average 4.5 shots on target per game, concede 4.3
- Aberdeen average 3.1 shots on target per game, concede 4.0
- Combined average shots on target: 8.8 per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aberdeen's high card count and both teams' disciplinary records point to over 3.5 cards.
- Hibernian average 1.8 yellow cards per game, opponents 1.9
- Aberdeen average 3.0 yellow cards per game, opponents 2.0
- Combined average cards: 4.8 per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%