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Predictions graded

Heart of Midlothian2Rangers2

HT 0–1Wed 28 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–271%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 17–14On targetOn target 6–6CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 04:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Third hosts second at Tynecastle, where Hearts have won all four home league games and Rangers are unbeaten away.

That makes Hearts to win or draw the likelier result, and at 1.73 it offers something; over 9.5 total corners at 1.65 also holds up. Under 3.5 goals at 1.53, both teams to score at 1.50 and over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.22 ask more than the evidence supports.

Context

A 6 October schedule overview from journalist Joel Sked places this fixture as Hearts' sixth match in a 30-day, three-competition stretch. The immediate sequence includes an away league game at Motherwell beforehand and a League Cup semi-final against Hibernian afterwards, making recovery and squad management relevant around Rangers' visit. No current source indicates a planned rotation or a specific availability change for this match.
- Joel Sked outlined a nine-game run across three competitions in 30 days for Hearts.
- His fixture sequence places the Rangers home match after Motherwell and before the Hibernian League Cup semi-final.
ReportedSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 04:26 · Europe/Bucharest
Hearts' 2-1 home win over Rangers on 4 May 2026 is the freshest direct evidence of how tight these Premiership meetings have been.
Both sides scored in the 4 May 2026 meeting and Hearts came out a goal better at home. It is one match rather than a trend, but it is the most recent direct evidence of how narrow this fixture has been. A single scoreline cannot promise a repeat either way.
- Premiership, 4 May 2026: Heart of Midlothian 2-1 Rangers at Tynecastle.
Hearts' perfect home league start and Rangers' unbeaten away league start are the two records this fixture puts on the line.
The standings put a flawless home record against an unbeaten away one, with both sides ten league games into the season. That is a small sample, and Hearts have conceded 15 in the league overall, so their home numbers are not a guarantee of solidity. The draw is the outcome that would keep both runs intact.
- After 10 Premiership games, Hearts' home record is 4 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 13 goals for and 2 against.
- Rangers' away record over the same 10 games is 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 7 goals for and 4 against.
Hearts Standard's 26 October fixture post identifies this as McInnes' first return to Tynecastle, while Rangers' official account confirms his current role as their manager. That creates a specific former-club narrative around a match at Hearts' home ground. The available evidence does not establish a selection, tactical or preparation consequence, so it remains reader context rather than a projected playing change.
- Hearts Standard reported on 26 October that this is McInnes' first return to Tynecastle.
- Rangers' official account published McInnes' post-match interview after the 4-0 win over St Johnstone on 24 October.
ReportedSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 04:26 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 3.5

1.53fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 65.4%

−3.4ppshort

Rangers' low concessions and clean-sheet rate point to a controlled game, with recent Tynecastle meetings mostly staying below four goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Hearts have not lost at home in the sample and have won the last two Tynecastle meetings with Rangers, so the draw-or-home outcome is the safer result read.
- Hearts are 5W-3D-0L in the home split (8 matches).
- Hearts' league home record is 4W-0D-0L with 13 goals for and 2 against.
- Hearts won the last two home league meetings with Rangers 2-1.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHeart of Midlothian or DrawEstimated chance63%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Rangers' low concessions and clean-sheet rate point to a controlled game, with recent Tynecastle meetings mostly staying below four goals.
- Rangers concede 0.73 per match overall and kept 7 clean sheets in 15.
- Rangers' away split shows 1.00 goals against per match in 6 games.
- The last three Tynecastle head-to-heads totalled 3, 3 and 4 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Hearts score at home consistently and Rangers have scored in every away match in the sample, with both scoring in most recent meetings.
- Hearts scored in 14 of 15 overall and in all 8 home matches.
- Rangers scored in all 6 away matches in the sample.
- Both teams scored in four of the last five head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams have first-half scoring averages near or above one goal and recent first halves often produced at least one goal.
- Hearts average 1.00 first-half goal; Rangers average 0.87 overall.
- Hearts average 1.00 first-half goal at home; Rangers average 0.67 away.
- Hearts scored a first-half goal in 4 of their last 6; Rangers in 5 of their last 6.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both teams generate and allow enough corners for a match total above 9.5, with Rangers especially high in recent games.
- Hearts average 5.54 corners with opponents adding 4.85 (13 matches).
- Rangers average 7.0 corners with opponents adding 3.62 (13 matches).
- Recent Rangers corner totals include 15, 12 and 12; recent Hearts totals include 13 and 11.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side's matches average close to 35 shots, and recent totals are mostly below the line.
- Hearts matches average 26.85 total shots (13 matches).
- Rangers matches average 28.55 total shots (11 matches).
- Only one of Hearts' last six and none of Rangers' last five recorded shot totals above 34.5.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 34.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined yellow-card averages for both teams sit above 3.5, and the fixture has recent card-heavy examples.
- Hearts matches average 4.67 combined yellow cards (12 matches).
- Rangers matches average 3.83 combined yellow cards (12 matches).
- Hearts' recent away game at Motherwell produced 8 total yellow cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L2-1Heart Of MidlothianvRangersMay 4, 2026PRE

L4-2RangersvHeart Of MidlothianFeb 15, 2026PRE

L2-1Heart Of MidlothianvRangersDec 21, 2025PRE

W0-2RangersvHeart Of MidlothianSep 13, 2025PRE

W1-3Heart Of MidlothianvRangersFeb 16, 2025PRE

3.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Premiership 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Heart of Midlothian Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)	10	6	1	3	22-15	19	WLWDL
2	Rangers Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)	10	7	2	1	17-7	23	WDWWW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Heart of Midlothian

Heart of Midlothian

W2-0MotherwellOct 25PRE

L0-2TrabzonsporOct 22UEF

L1-7CelticOct 18PRE

D1-1FC NordsjaellandOct 15UEF

W5-0ST MirrenOct 10PRE

D1-1KilmarnockSep 19PRE

L1-2FalkirkSep 15PRE

W3-0StenhousemuirSep 11LEA

W2-1DundeeSep 6PRE

W3-1HibernianSep 3PRE

W2-1ST JohnstoneAug 29PRE

D2-2Rapid ViennaAug 20UEF

W6-2Inverness CTAug 16LEA

D1-1BenficaAug 13UEF

W4-0Dundee UtdAug 9PRE

Rangers

Rangers

W4-0ST JohnstoneOct 24PRE

D2-2DundeeOct 17PRE

W3-1KilmarnockOct 10PRE

W1-0CelticSep 20PRE

W3-0CelticSep 13LEA

W1-0ST MirrenSep 9PRE

W1-0MotherwellSep 5PRE

W2-1FalkirkSep 2PRE

W1-0AberdeenAug 30PRE

W1-0FK JablonecAug 20UEF

W5-1ST MirrenAug 16LEA

D1-1JagielloniaAug 13UEF

L1-2HibernianAug 9PRE

L1-2JagielloniaAug 6UEF

D1-1Dundee UtdJul 31PRE

Squad & Injuries

Heart of Midlothian

34 available

Attackers9

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Rangers

30 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3