FH Hafnarfjordur1Thor Akureyri2

HT 1–2Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–60%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 11:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Both clubs sit on 21 points in the last round of the Úrvalsdeild season, with Þór fighting relegation and FH's home form the steadier base.

A home win or draw is the likeliest shape of the afternoon. The home win at 2.05 asks more than FH's four league victories justify; the worthwhile prices are FH or draw at 1.44, no both teams to score at 2.75, under 2.5 goals at 2.90 and the draw at 4.20.

Context

Fótbolti.net's 18 October highlights post headlined Þór as rampant and printed KA Akureyri, not Þór, in the relegation place after the penultimate round, and an Icelandic football podcast framed the same weekend as a straight fight between the two Akureyri clubs. That turns the trip to Hafnarfjörður into a result-dependent afternoon rather than a dead rubber, with Þór arriving on the back of a 3-1 home win over Stjarnan while FH were losing 1-3 at ÍBV. A side chasing survival is likely to commit players forward, which shapes how open the closing match becomes. The sourced material publishes no points totals and does not confirm whether Þór are clear of direct relegation or in the play-off place; the pre-round picture of them sitting in the drop came from betting commentary, so the precise scenario should be treated as reported.
- Fótbolti.net's 18 October highlights post headlined Þór as rampant and KA Akureyri in a relegation place after the penultimate round.
- Þór beat Stjarnan 3-1 at home on 17 October, their second consecutive home win.
- Bomban Podcast posted during that match that Þór's coach would be manager of the year if he keeps Þór up and KA goes down.
- Betting commentary before the round said Þór sat in the direct relegation place and needed a win to stay in touch.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Besta deild karla runs to 27 rounds, and Fótbolti.net noted on 16 October that only two remained, with the penultimate set spread over 16-19 October before this closing fixture. Having no further league match to come concentrates a whole season into one afternoon, which raises the chance of unusual selection or a more open approach than either side would normally take. Staggered kickoffs across the round mean neither bench knows the completed table while its own match is running.
- Fótbolti.net wrote on 16 October that Besta deild karla was at its climax with only two rounds remaining.
- The penultimate round was spread across 16-19 October, with FH losing 1-3 at ÍBV and Þór beating Stjarnan 3-1.
- Fótbolti.net described the 2026 season's team of the year being settled after 26 rounds, on 20 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 11:23 · Europe/Bucharest
Þór's 1-0 home win is the only victory either side has managed in this season's league meetings.
The 6 September league game was goalless at the interval and settled by a single second-half goal, and it is the one meeting between the clubs this year that Þór won. FH had scored in eight of nine tracked home matches between 28 June and 20 September, so being shut out on their travels was out of character. That result is the clearest recent counterweight to FH's stronger home split, and it came roughly six weeks before this closing fixture.
- 6 September 2026, Úrvalsdeild: Þór Akureyri 1-0 FH Hafnarfjörður, 0-0 at half-time.
- FH scored in eight of nine tracked home matches in the window 28 June to 20 September 2026.
- 2026 meetings: Þór 2-4 FH (Cup, 4 April), FH 1-1 Þór (league, 21 June), Þór 1-0 FH (league, 6 September).
FH's season has been built on shared points rather than wins, particularly on their own ground.
FH have won only four league games all season, so a single point has been their most common return in Hafnarfjörður. The home ledger reads two wins, five draws and four defeats with 15 scored and 17 conceded in 11 matches, a record that is hard to call dominant. Þór's away line of two draws in 11 offers a second route to a shared result, while their seven away defeats point the other way.
- FH's 2026 Úrvalsdeild record after 22 rounds: 4 wins, 9 draws, 9 losses, 27 scored, 39 conceded.
- FH at home in the league: 11 games, 2 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses, 15 scored, 17 conceded.
- Þór's away league record: 11 games, 2 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FH score regularly at home and Thor have conceded heavily away, so the home side has the clearer route to the win.
- FH home split: 4W 4D 1L, 2.00 goals for and 1.22 against per game
- Thor away split: 1W 1D 5L, 0.71 goals for and 2.71 against per game
- H2H this season: Thor 1-0 FH in September, FH 1-1 Thor in June
- League table: both clubs on 21 points, FH 9th and Thor 10th
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFH HafnarfjordurEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
FH's home first-half scoring and Thor's low away first-half output favour an early home lead.
- FH home first-half goals: 1.11 for, 0.67 against per game
- Thor away first-half goals: 0.43 for, 1.00 against per game
- FH led at half-time in three of their last four matches
- September H2H was 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFH HafnarfjordurEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Thor's away second-half defence has been weak, giving FH the stronger second-half case.
- FH home second-half goals: 0.89 for, 0.56 against per game
- Thor away second-half goals: 0.29 for, 1.71 against per game
- Thor conceded three second-half goals at KA and three at Valur
- FH have scored in 8 of 9 home tracked matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFH HafnarfjordurEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
FH score regularly at home and Thor have conceded heavily away, so the home side has the clearer route to the win. FH's habit of drawing and the low-scoring recent meeting keep a share of the points in play.
- FH home split: 4W 4D 1L, 2.00 goals for and 1.22 against per game
- Thor away split: 1W 1D 5L, 0.71 goals for and 2.71 against per game
- FH have drawn 9 of 22 league matches
- FH home league record includes 5 draws in 11
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFH Hafnarfjordur or DrawEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FH's home first-half scoring and Thor's low away first-half output favour an early home lead. A tight opening is plausible because Thor score little before half-time away from home.
- FH home first-half goals: 1.11 for, 0.67 against per game
- Thor away first-half goals: 0.43 for, 1.00 against per game
- September H2H was 0-0 at half-time
- Thor away first-half goals: 0.43 for per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostFH Hafnarfjordur or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent games point to goals, with Thor's away defence especially vulnerable.
- FH home tracked matches average 3.22 total goals
- Thor away tracked matches average 3.43 total goals
- Thor conceded 3 at KA and 4 at Valur in recent away losses
- FH's last four matches produced 4, 8, 7 and 3 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FH usually score at home and Thor have found the net in enough away games to make both sides scoring likely.
- FH home both teams scored in 6 of 9 tracked matches
- Thor away both teams scored in 3 of 7 tracked matches
- Thor away scored 0.71 per game but FH home conceded 1.22
- H2H this season included a 1-1 and a 2-4
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The first-half scoring rates on both sides make at least one goal before the break more likely than not.
- FH home first-half total: 1.78 goals per game
- Thor away first-half total: 1.43 goals per game
- FH home first-half scoring: 1.11 per game
- September H2H first half was 0-0
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-half goal rates, especially Thor's away defence, point to more than one goal after the break.
- FH home second-half total: 1.44 goals per game
- Thor away second-half total: 2.00 goals per game
- Thor conceded three second-half goals in each of their last two away losses
- FH conceded two second-half goals at IBV in October
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%